I dumped the uranium moonshot. Western Uranium. Smallish gain but not sure if U going higher in 2024 or not yet, from here.
My ESPR (statin replacement) up 141%.
Unfortunately i put less than 1% in port in it, but feels good either way.
PTLO up/down but still off sub-14 lows.
Markets appear set to go up forever.
Dreamer
Golly gee whiz.
Up ,5% for the day at moment.
Could be a lost decade for me.
Only rocks under my xmas tree.
Que sera sera.
Happy holidays all!
Dreamer
We balanced out. I was down 0.5%. Blame PGY. It tanked when the new home sales data came out. Expected to be up from last month, instead came in quite a bit lower. Did market pay attention to real economy?
KC
Closing shorts.
Hasnt been that useful for me outside of a hedge and i prefer to just take what market gives in 2024.
Yeah. This probably marks a top then.
Which is fine, too, as i dont like most prices atm.
Added to ESPR yesterday. Closer to 3% position now.
Dreamer
probably too early, but China seems beaten down, so looking at FXI as a trade. Just looking for a 10-15% sort of thing. Don’t know how long that will take, as may have much further to fall. Only 2% sort of allocation.
FXI is China large cap.
Dreamer
bought SE for similar reasons as the FXI. This sort of balances out an APAC trade for me. Total SE + FXI is approx 3.5% allocation. May take a bit and might be waaaay early, but I think fear of TikTok and Indonesia’s GoTo are probably overblown in terms of being an SE killer.
Dreamer
KC has been AWOL 17 days. I guess I had a post that failed to fire. 'Cour’se,'cause I dint click the send icon. Year end. Accounting. Power off to the entire island 3 days. Kind’a like 'at.
So, ended 2023 at +29.56%. Better’n 2022, but wasn’t? Practicin’ my native tongue ‘cause we goin’ Stateside soon. Boy, that’s tiring… anyway, going to start spending the kids inheritance while we still can.
For 2024, investment-wise, the only contemplated difference is better cash management. Keeping the E*Trade pennies in treasury ETF’s, some more in JEPD and JEPQ. Going to keep our RMD’s in those as long as possible. My real, actual, non-derivative treasuries matures January 31. Thatl is destined for investment after skimming for the travel. Long the market while the 10-year yield hangs near 4.0% and makes the QQQ behave.
Port is typically boring:
10-Year 17.3% BILL 5.6 PSTG 5.5 GLBE 5.1 FOUR 5.1 PGY 4.5 MNDY 3.6 ENVX 3.4 NTNX 3.4 ZS 3.3 DDOG 3.2 ONDS 3.1 PVH 2.6 SPG 2.5 VFC 2.3 CELH 2.0 OLED 1.9 CELX 1.0 Then, JEPD and JEPQ are 2.2% each and QQQ and SLV are maintained equal, currently 5.16% and 5.14%. Oh!, yes. about 0.6% in each of the Mag 7. Some of that is "better than cash", and real cash is 4%. I know, Dreamer, "What, me worry?" KC Down 0.8% for '24. Down quite a bit from my trailing 12-month high.
my recommendation for those looking to stay forever young:
On side note: NTNX? Really? Still?
A toast to a profitable 2024 for us both!
Dreamer
I bought a 1% allocation in AEHR in premarket, in low $18’s.
May add a tiny bit more if it plunges further today, which could happen, especially if a general red day for market. Will see.
Basically they are profitable, and revised forecasted range is 15-30% growth y/y, and CEO stated they are being conservative. On the one hand, they seem to stink at forecasting, due to such high client concentrations and the uncertainty of the EV sales market at moment. On other hand, they claim to have a number of clients in the pipeline and that no biz is lost, just merely pushed out. Believe their fiscal year is wonky and ends in May (have to double-check) so basically this could be a 2H story. May be early here, and don’t see it as a multi-year LTBH situation…either it pops back up in relief rally for a quick gain/exit or it is a few months to see how next ER plays out. Based on recent price action, they literally doubled off their previously crash in fairly quick timing, so I am partially banking on this being market overkill again. Finally, I like the small caps here. In my opinion, a good chance we see a market rotation in 1H-24 from the on-fire large cap growth to value stocks and/or small cap value stocks. You can argue this is still too high a PE to be “value” but the reality is they are still growing and at 30 PE may be ok in a rotation. That’s the plan anyway.
Dreamer
The numbers are appalling. Look what they did in Q1, bookings of 18.4M vs 2.2M in Q2. Ending backlog in Q1 of 22.3M vs 3M in Q2. They barely had any orders the entire quarter and drained most of their backlog. They have nothing in the chamber.
The previously use to talk about bookings between the end of the quarter and the earnings call, this time you got …
“Christian Schwab
Thank you. Gayn, can you give us some indication of how you would anticipate the revenue orders to come and support in the second half of the year? Are you assuming the vast majority of the revenue you’re guiding for the fiscal year will come in the May quarter? And [Multiple Speakers]
Gayn Erickson
Yes, no, that’s a fair question. We were - given where the orders are right now with already a chunk into the third quarter, we think that second half or the [indiscernible] Q4 will certainly be bigger than Q3. Maybe but not majority, maybe at 60, 40 spreads or something like that. So we’re still expecting orders and have things lined up to ship for this quarter.”
So they are still expecting to get orders in Q3? I doubt they will be profitable in Q3…
that is good feedback. Given the previous stock hit, and stock hit today, would it be fair to say the bookings are baked into current stock price at this point?
Not sure. That is why a small allocation and basically a trade vs long-term investment.
Dreamer
Nevermind. I hadn’t gotten that far into the weeds last night on the backlog. Reading the SA articles/comments now, after jdc’s post…well…I think I will just sidestep this dogturd and look for other opps.
I think this earning season, along with Q2 and Q3, should be fairly dynamic with some whopper drops (and of course some pops) and I may find better unfairly beaten down stock choices in weeks to come.
Sold the AEHR for 2% peanuts gain. It was up 7% shortly after open…oh well. At least no loss taken.
Dreamer
Not still. Again.
I guess this was a broken toy buy. Fiscal year is May. September earnings report were good, beat and raise. This followed by August quarter’s report, a better beat and raise. As we will recall, NTNX was everyone’s darling in 2018 when it was hardware/software and software was purchased and no interest in cloud. Since then, software only, pivot to subscription, cloud version developed, new management… 5 years in the wilderness.
P/S has always been low for this cigar but*. Still is. It has a p/e in its immediate future. Investor presentation:
https://ir.nutanix.com/static-files/405a4b57-c330-4b4a-b1a1-2ea1ee1972ef
I made a tiny buy 9/28, up 40%, bought most of the position 11/29, up 19%, and added mid-december, up 5%.
Pretty chart, but it comes up ‘‘daily’’. Click 6 month or one year…:
Next earnings : 3/4
KC
68% cash
flat on year, thanks mainly to ESPR up offset by PTLO down.
Added today to SE, ESPR, and new teeny tiny starter in IQ, which I expect to eventually get up to 2% allocation after their next ER. (in case of drop)
I still have same issues with China…the shares are ADRs and also the govt can throw wrenches into the news with unfriendly business regulation. But since they recently did that and then backtracked, I think we may be safe for most/rest of this year in terms of China publicly tanking their own market with stupid regulation news. IQ now has staying power, almost 6 years after I first invested in them to the tune of a fast 3x trade in Spring 2018. That was 15 to 45. Then stock did an up/down from 15 to 25 for years, and then fell off a cliff in 2022, and has since doubled from Oct 2022. Longer chart view, they are again near 52 wk low and might be poised for an upswing soon, as they recently went profitable. Unlike US hollywood, they appear to have no qualms about maximizing AI for productivity, so that is also in their favor. I was curious about theme park expansion, as their CEO always wanted to be Disney and not Netflix, but not much on that front. Their advertising allegedly has picked up, which has helped profitability. Competition in China is limited, and they are expanding overseas (seems like they have a tweaked version for overseas). Small allocation either way, but not shocked if they eventually burst out of their long sideways channel.
ESPR is still super risky, but also very high upside. Any major dips, I might add more, but otherwise still letting that ride or die.
More and more I am so mad about CELH. I have long envied the Monster Energy stock trade from the 2000’s. I just didn’t even know they were a thing. I am hopeful to get in on a meaningful pullback, otherwise it is just too bad. Why don’t I chase? Because I play an entry/exit price game in my head, and they are already not that far away from exit price, so that current entry risk/reward not all that attractive to me. In relation to MNST stock trajectory, they are well ahead of the curve at moment. Not surprising given market near ATH at moment.
Dreamer
it is more of less official: PTLO is my new ESTC. In other words, a stock I firmly believe should be higher now and long-term, but with which the market laughs mockingly and disagrees heartily.
Oh well. Sticking to my guns. Matching ATL at moment, so not quite sure next buy target…can it fall into the $12’s? Looking at my 2022 price targets, I had “12-14” written down, so…hmmm.
My allocation already large there, so what I would probably do is offset my 401k with my individual account, and buy the lower shares (the “more of a sure thing” price) in the ind account while selling the 401k. This isn’t a tax play, it is just that I am riskier and more long-term with my 401k than I am with my ind account as it represents liquid funds I may need in the real world for whatever reason.
Just waiting for more stocks with prices I like. Might be a long wait and might be a dull Q1 in terms of buying opps…will see.
Dreamer
Added a little to my small $CPNG Coupang position on Wednesday. They are a large abut still fast growing player in South Korean ecommerce that has the edge in distribution time and is building in other components into a Prime-esque subscription package. I think they will continue to be able to take market share for some time with their added value involved in the subscription. I like their founder and CEO Bom Kim, seems like the visionary type but also has been focused on gross margins and profitability as well. The reinvestment runway seems long and they are currently attempting an expansion into Taiwan. The stock is trading at 14x FCF although the PE is currently much higher.
I continue to suck. Down 2.1% YTD after Monday’s session dip. Still bullish on the market, but that 10-year back up to 4.1%–a yellow flag for me. I think it will come down this week (the 10-year yield, that is).
Actual cash, 2.3%. BUT, the GBIL and TBIL treasury ETF’s total 15.4%. The 17% treasuries matured end of January. The JEPQ and JEPI high dividend, sell-the-calls-ETF’s are together 4.6%. So that’s 22.3% and 5.7% silver makes it 28% kinda-cash.
PSTG is still #1. Data. Needs a home. Secular growth trend. Flash storage, low energy consumption, small footprint compared to legacy. Rapid retrieval. PSTG has Evergreen and they have Storage-as-a-Service. CFO’s like that.
Color me stubborn.
KC
From my vantage point, the economy and fundamentals are poor. The market doesn’t care, for now. Seems increasingly obvious that the the economy has multiple layers. Top layers are doing very well, thank you, a lot of others not so much. The magic money wand cranking out “dollars” to an unlimited degree, Powell covering his rear by talking Fiscal Policy discipline (as in “lack thereof”), and the promised land of 3 rate cuts and cheap money for buybacks… how sweet it is.
The 10-year is is creeping up and that worries me. I am not in the camp that the Fed can buy up all that debt.–or have been. The balance sheet is shrinking, but a rate that makes climate scientists envious. So, KC has been buying whatever dips present themselves. Too early in some cases. Need to adhere more closely to the 3-day rule. I also cleaned up the portfolio junk on Friday.
Bought BILL twice (first buy too early, second at a better price… we will see what happens on days 2 and 3, both buys may very well be too early.) Sold all of the CEIX, OLED, VFC, STEM, IFF, LGIH. Decided to hold onto SPT. NTNX, PGY and CELH took the day off. META was still digesting its post-earnings pop.
That left me up 1.6% for the session and the port now has two nostrils above the waterline. Up 2.4% YTD. I have 2/3rd’s of the cash I’ll need for the RMD which I plan to take Monday.
KC
I sold a lot today. The 10-year is about 4.3% and I think not coming down for a while. I don’t like 3-day weekends in this geopolitical environment. So, I have about 70% cash along with 12.6% treasury ETFs and 5.7% silver and 2.2% JEPQ.
Probably go shopping on Tuesday.
KC
Im down 2.2%, a lot of that is due to CEIX, I didnt realize pricing on contracts was so much lower this year, thats my fault. Its still trading at around 5x forward earnings and should buy back around 17% of shares this year. Half of their volume for next year is already locked in at similar prices.
In other newsI’ve been looking closely at IAC and MGM. I think both could produce really strong returns from here but im a little more confident in MGM right now. I may buy MGM if i can wrap my head around the long term thesis a little better, which includes a massive resort in Osaka, am area im very bullish on when it comes to tourism.
If NTDOY drops like 10% on this switch 2 delay news i would definitely consider adding to my position. I expected this.
In my trading account i have almost 50% cash and i share your sentiment on the overall market outlook KC. Nvidia earnings on wednesday are definitely something to watch.