Jeff green wrote article
Enjoy the weekend,
Dreamer
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USAC hit a 52 wk high today, and for no other reasons than other stocks have taken a step back and I want to pocket gains and reinvest, I have sold off my USAC.
Would certainly entertain USAC again down the road. Twice now in last 6 years it has been a good trade and still a good dividend. It is nearly $29 now and probably will hit $40 now that I sold, but que sera sera. Will take my 17% gain (maybe more w a couple divvy distributions) and have reinvested into TTD.
TTD seems to be in public spat w Publicis, one of the dying marketing giants TTD built their business around initially. I liked that TTD came out and stated they have never failed an audit and this is more about not sharing confidential info with Publicis just bc they want to see it. Add Jeff Green’s $150m personal stock buy, and I view this as a buyable dip. Could go lower, of course…but if there is any truth to OpenAI partnership, stock could/should explode on that news. So thinking this excess I bought will be a quick swing trade and then still holding the rest for $40. Stock currently in low $23’s.
ESPR is still a profitable investment for me but so many gains come and go…like a nauseating roller coaster ride. They took a step back and ruined 2026, partially, with their acquisition of another drug, imo. On the main bempedoic acid front, they just got favorable guidelines, have a new sales leader, and may be announcing a new ACLY kidney drug indication later this year. Most importantly, the FINAL BOSS of catalysts is the pending ANDA litigation, which could/should move final patent for BA from 2031 to either 2036 or 2040, which is mammoth as the royalties alone from DSE (Europe) and Otsuka (Japan) should be a combined $250-400m/year from 2029 onward. That is pure margin essentially. I am not buying more until/unless it dips below $2 (again) and I will start thinking about it. Not that it isn’t a good value at $2.50 or so current price, but rather I have enough shares at moment and would need a more compelling entry to want to add more to the allocation.
Also still waiting on RADX, which should have some news on trials soon, and should be an active late Spring in the stock. Will sell/flip gains on any pop over $10-11, I think.
Dreamer
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Picked up a bit of TTD yesterday. My last trade in TTD was in Nov 2024 for 129. Bought 2.5x more yesterday for about half the total cost. I haven’t added to TTD in over 5 years. Trusting in Jeff Green right now. The last 1.5 years have not been good for TTD.
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Blah. I suck so far this year.
I really expected between ESPR, RADX, and TTD that i would be able to pocket gains from pops back and forth.
Instead they all are depressed at same time. Did sell RADX early on for more than a double so the overall trade there is still up, and USAC was a good trade.
So not getting crushed like i was in april-jun 2025, but hey - still plenty of time for it to get worse!
Or better.
Fortunate to be gainfully employed, have my health, and the kids are doing well. My perspectives have matured and my patience is more time-tested these days.
Que sera sera. Good luck out there.
Dreamer
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Esperion had a weak buyout, and ends a weird investing period for me.
Net is I wind up about 4% below the start of the year (when ESPR stock was flying much higher). Coulda woulda shoulda sold it all in early 2026. No point in playing the hindsight game.
Moving on!
I am literally all cash.
I had just sold TTD two days ago after a pop day, in hopes of buying up more ESPR cheap. Had already sold out of RADX to buy more TTD/ESPR.
Back to the drawing board.
Am relieved to be done with Esperion. A story stock if there ever was one. I truly believe competent mgmt should have sold it for $2.5-3b minimum, and more likely $4-5b.
Lesson learned: mgmt is so important. David Simon with SPG. Jeff Green with TTD. Jensen Huang with NVDA. Either have a founder-led company or a truly competent mgmt. Otherwise, those clowns will break your egg every time.
ESPR was a winning investment at end of the day, albeit much less than I expected. And what was the lost opportunity cost along the way?
One unfortunate thing is I am all cash and market screaming high still.
As many know from my history, I am reluctant to chase FOMO.
TTD is still intriguing, but as a broken toy trade.
Question is, buy some now or just wait to see if there is a post-ER plunge.
Normally I would say “follow the fundamentals” but in this case we oddly need to see Q1 ER to understand fundamentals, as TTD story is in danger of falling apart, as they are at odds with their large agency partners. Also - ad spend in front of a potential recession or lull in economy? Contrast all that with “yeah - but stock already beaten down excessively” and a move up or down isn’t surprising me.
So will take some time, or maybe just a day, and think about what I want to do, what stocks to rebuild the watchlist with.
Biotech? maybe one more small lotto ticket with RADX, due to report on their study soon, allegedly. But no more big biotech bets any time soon.
all the best!
Dreamer
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Tmdx looks stupid cheap right now.
PE of 20 with >30% growth. Even if growth slows, still seems cheap
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ESPR news is definitely disappointing. I do not post much on these forums but have been reading them for years and do tend to pay attention to your picks Dreamer. I work in the biotech industry (big pharma) and have held a small ESPR position since reading your analysis quite a while ago. I was pretty stunned to see the buyout price (to me something smells fishy about the deal, but that is business I guess). I also had some $3 LEAPS which are now essentially worthless, which is fun.
I am with you on TTD as well, I’ve held a position for several years and has been a pretty frustrating investment, but my own stubbornness won’t let me close out my position. I still think there is a lot of opportunity in the CTV space and fundamentals for TTD are strong, the market just seems to hate the stock. I’ve also continued to hold a small position in MGNI after reading about them on these boards a couple years ago, and has performed similarly (growth has slowed, but forward P/E of 10…). It’s hard for me to watch something like PLTR or TSLA still trade at a P/E >200 (even after decent selloff), meanwhile TTD is still growing at a reasonable rate and trades at >20 forward P/E (I still laugh at Saul followers that think anything less than 30-40% growth rate is bad and not a “growth” stock).
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Watchlist ideas needed!!!
What are your favorite stocks, based on prices now, with upside thru 2026/2027?
Also - which stocks you like, but waiting and hoping to get cheaper before buying?
Some candidates, which are largely retreads for me:
Radx, usac, prme, kids, ttd
Dreamer
I have started my toe-dipping to rebuild up my port for remainder of 2026/2027 type of timeline.
TMDX, OKLO, TTD, RADX, LNTH, PRME, KIDS, and saul board got me interested in ALGM.
I technically still have a position in ESPR, but that is more just making sure a counter-offer doesn’t emerge in next week or two. Will see how long I hold on to it.
Tons of cash. Layering it in. Some ERs about to happen, and actually wouldn’t mind the trade going wrong way and getting some lower entries. Will see.
I do realize some of these are biotech, but they were already familiar to me and feel I have a handle on what to expect and what upside should be. Not an “all in” type motion as I did with ESPR. Going with a basket port approach until I find the next horse (or two) I am really willing to put an oversized allocation onto. Nothing jumping out at me at the moment.
Dreamer
I decided against USAC, as I reminded myself that I already squeezed that orange quite a bit, positively, and it isn’t the type of business set up for explosive pops.
I decided against PTLO, at least this far off the lows. I would consider a trade, just bc I know the stock, if it faceplants (again) into the low $4’s. Otherwise, love the food and not the stock.
Wish I kept WBD…remember that one? Sheesh.
and I already hate TMDX…
Good buying opp?
Fuma - come back and defend the “super cheap” tmdx! 
Is it even cheaper now or dis the stock narrative actually collapse.
Seems rev was ok and topline guidanve intact, but eps and margins whacked.
Dreamer
CHOPs - cannibalize existing warm perfusion OCS.
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DBD hearts is the target (expansion) with short cycle times to transplant
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Better temp control vs Styrofoam/cold pack standard of care.
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Seems more about defending their turf to lead the certification process for cold storage as a strategic lever to argue superior product against “styrofoam, Yeti, Ryobi coolers… from Home Depot” as used by OPO in some areas.
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Maybe kidney and liver, but not now. Do not believe CHOPs is a good solution for these markets
Fuel surcharges - all passed along to end users. Inelastic demand. (Waleed did not answer specifics about strategy vs competitors on fuel charges, pass through and hedging, etc.)
- Very small part of operating costs.
- TDMX is most cost effective transportation network
60% margin is the long term target. (58.2% for this quarter)
- heavy investments are pressuring margins in the short term
- target is to keep margins at current level or higher
25% Growth target moving forward for 2026.
Me talking…
I think the cold storage CHOPS solution is a innovation in search of a market. Having followed them in their efforts to break further into OPO territories, they continue to comment that “some centers” are fine with cold storage and that TMDX has not been able to convert those networks to use their (very expensive) warm perfusion.
By introducing this Cold storage transport device, they are effectively confusing their narrative commercially, even if technically they can “build a better mousetrap” for cold transport.
For me, while I am significantly disappointed by this development, I trust Waleed in the team technically.
My faith in them moving forward is more about the moat they have built in the US with an eye toward growth ExUS, with the thought that they win a few more technocrats over with their cold storage CHOPS solution. The R&D drag currently will have to be weighted later after commercialization.
I bought more at $77 (4.5% additional) with another order in the lower 70’s for 7 additional percent.
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It is such an odd business.
How do you view the reasonable TAM for tmdx?
How do you frame the growth upside vs them hitting a saturation plateau?
Thx for the details!
They have gone into this on prior calls.
TAM with Ex-US is now much larger (however, less profitable, and beyond Europe, even less profitable)
- Kidney is NOT included today, but is part of plan
- Lung IS included today, but is very early days
US TAM ~$3.5B
Ex US TAM $5-6.5B on less margins
- Europe is ~45% of that
OCS (TMDX) is ~ 1/4 of relevant transplants today in the US
And from google:
TransMedics management explicitly stated during the May 2026 Q1 earnings call that CHOPS is not cannibalizing its OCS warm perfusion services. Instead, the system is designed to be additive to their total market share by capturing a segment that OCS does not currently serve. [1, 2, 3]
The impact on the existing market is expected to be minimal for the following reasons:
- Distinct Target Market: CHOPS (Controlled Hypothermic Organ Preservation System) targets short-transport cases—specifically Donation-After-Brain-Death (DBD) hearts with preservation times under four hours—that currently rely on standard cold storage (e.g., “Styrofoam boxes”).
- Strategic Role as Trial Control: CHOPS was unveiled at the ISHLT 2026 conference to serve as the standardized, FDA-regulated control arm for the >ENHANCE Heart and DENOVO Lung clinical trials. This allows TransMedics to better isolate the superior performance of OCS warm perfusion against a modernized version of cold storage.
- Expansion of the NOP Infrastructure: By offering a broader product portfolio, TransMedics can capture volume from transplant centers that primarily handle short distances and may not yet invest in long-distance DCD (Donation after Circulatory Death) procurement.
- Organ-Specific Focus: Currently, CHOPS is specifically designed for the cardiothoracic platform (heart and lung). Management has not yet decided if the technology will be expanded to liver or kidney markets, as they believe kidney preservation requires a full transition to machine perfusion rather than refined cold storage. [1, 2, 3, 4]
TransMedics expects to file an IDE supplement for CHOPS within weeks, with implementation and potential 510(k) commercial clearance anticipated by early Q3 2026. [, 2]
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And one last comment.
They are not battling a saturation anytime in the near future, they are battling a market definition of “good enough”.
The standard of care is significantly improved (TMDX view) through their product and their products come at a high premium!
Since that premium is significant, and their competition is arguing “current services are good enough”, TMDX has the commercial challenge of convincing the medical team for each regional service center to convert.
This is no small task and is why this is a sales task and NOT a technical task.
Thesis intact and this looks like a good buying opportunity, but there are no near term catalysts to rocket share prices +100% or so.
This might be dead money beyond the $80-90 range, which will be found prior to next quarter.
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this new port is off to a wacky start.
TMDX immediately throws up everywhere, down 20%.
OKLO up 18% in about 24 hours for me, so just sold. May revisit if it retraces. Got lucky and caught some news about design approvals.
I did rebuy TMDX in the $70s just now, but stopping there.
I did buy PTLO after all, as it literally did what I offhandly threw out (it retraced into the $4’s) and so I see it as more a trade where I think this one fluctuates throughout the year and should see close to $6 again without too much effort. New CEO and basically he is taking the lickings now and resetting direction. Remains to be seen if he knows what he is doing, but the refrain is familiar: hit the reset button, get beaten down a bit, bottom, and start climbing. Since we are now near an ATL, I am hoping this is bottom-ish. A 60 yr old business, they are going nowhere…they just need to revamp their growth strategy and pay down some debt.
Dreamer
more of my new names announce today or tomorrow, and could be more ER flops, and then I will likely decide to buy lower. (looking at you, TTD)
Dreamer
if you are correct on the TMDX $80-90 range, then it is still a good buy at these $70 prices, regardless.
thanks for the dd!
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Small cap biotech that I’ve been holding a small position - Achieve Life Sciences (ACHV). Natural/plant based smoking cessation drug (Cytisinicline) with lower side effects than varenicline (Chantix). First new smoking cessation drug in over 20 years if approved. NDA already accepted, PDUFA target date June 20th. Seems very likely this will be approved based on the data. They are partnering with Adare Pharma Solutions for US market for manufacturing; first engineering run completed and method transfers completed. Given the type of product this isn’t a very complex manufacturing process so if Adare is competent then doubtful to see any production complications.
If approved, likely to see commercial sales in 2027. Current market cap $500M. For reference, Chantix peak sales in 2019 were over $1B. Estimated TAM $25B+ (globally). They also have a Phase 2 trial ongoing for vaping cessation.
This one is very interesting to me as it’s a fairly simple product, and given we haven’t seen a new drug for this indication in 2 decades. I think there could be a good boost if they could eventually market as a “vaping cessation” drug (sounds dumb, it’s all nicotine, but that’s how pharma works) given the rise in vaping popularity.
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