Sorry for the delay!
Couple things. Mostly because I’m a boo-bird in general for most things, and don’t really like waleed. BUT. I think he’s a bit like Elon that the company survives and thrives in spite of him, not because of him.
I don’t love that they use hyperbole and talk Ryobi, yeti, and Styrofoam coolers as their competitors. United therapeutics has a lung transport device. There sophisticated devices out there.
With that said… I don’t necessarily view the small transport time box as a loss or cannibalizing their market, rather expanding when they see the writing on the wall. Might as well be the total solution operator. And, let’s not forget that the secret sauce for them for liver is that they can store the organ and then the OR team can operate at any point the following day. That’s really the key here is that developed trust and surgeons leaning on their devices for the surgeon to be able to get a good night’s sleep the night before, rather than be required to come in at 3:00 a.m. to start the case. If they can do that for kidney, then their market opens up tremendously. I don’t necessarily buy that. They’re storage devices. So much better than everyone else’s, but it does have the lore of being able to allow for storage for several hours to wait for the light of day for surgeons to start their cases. That branding means something.
Next, I think gas prices hit them hard, but they likely have better economics than your local transport crew. This affects margins, sure, but they can tolerate it better than their competitors most likely. Waleed also ducks this question.
Tbh, the most concerning part of the conference call was when he ducked the question on the 10,000 organ target.
With all that said, this is a business that operates in a very fragmented market, is consolidating that market, is making surgeons lives easier, is expanding internationally, and is integrating vertically in the United States. It has a PE ratio under 15 for a company that is growing 20% year over year. At some point this either becomes a slow plodding grower that beats the market like LMAT has done for the last two decades, or gets bought out. Though honestly, I’m not sure by who, as I think eventually this company will likely come under some scrutiny though right now they’re probably flying under the radar.
I had bought a bunch after the big crash in October/ November 2023. I’m probably going to buy some more. As much as I dislike waleed, I just don’t see a way that this doesn’t continue to grow and consolidate the market. They’ll slowly wrangle market share away from kidney boxes - and because it’s such a huge market, it won’t take much market share to move the needle.
As for LNTH … I like the 14% sequential growth of neuraceq. I think their brain imaging segment is going to grow over time. I’m getting more and more Alzheimer’s research / talks pop up on the conference circuit. They have a steady cadence of approvals coming up. I don’t think anything is going to give them a massive windfall in the next 5 years except maybe their SCLC therapy. But honestly trying to hit home runs hasn’t really been their style. They just grind out small gains. This is also a LMAT-like company. By the dip and market corrections/etc. Not certain i would add a bunch more here.