I could see that as a possible trade, although I don’t tend to invest that way. I am tempted to put on a short strategy as the stock pops, unwinding my long position and buying certain duration Puts in the the 15-17 range. It’s a hedge against my long position, which I can’t seem to let go. As we get closer to the next eventual correction, the weakest businesses will get taken to the woodshed. I think this may be one where the floor is a lot farther down.
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Got TTD shares at $17.85
Wow.
My hands are shredded…blood everywhere!
Have to go back to 1H 2019 for these levels. Crazy.
Dreamer
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bought more TTD around $17.80 and under. Wowza.
These are the times that try men’s souls…or something like that.
Good luck out there all!
Dreamer
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Sold TMDX
Down more or less to the TTD rebound play and RADX moonshot, at moment.
Modest gains on TMDX…i did sell half higher. But with slight premarket pop, i took oppty to escape and say thanks.
And cash.
Was hoping RKLB would keep tanking, but they bought Iridium and popped premarket.
I have bought TTD into the $17s and will sell tranches on the way up. $21, $25 are now amazingly enticing when i prev thought i would need to hold to $30-40.
Dreamer
Did you hold LNTH? Just checked and it’s done well the last 6 months
I sold it for a quick gain a while back.
RADX was supposed to release RAD101 data by end of June. (checks calendar)
So still playing that moonshot.
Dreamer
Bought a chunk of META.
Facebook sucks but still viable, especially Marketplace.
Instagram has legs, it seems.
No idea on WhatsApp anymore.
But the idea here is they want to become a cloud provider.
AWS carried amazon w profitable growing cloud biz.
If META can come up with both profitable ad biz and cloud biz, they get back in the tech titan conversation w google, microsoft, and amazon.
More short term: their stock was flat/down for a year now. Room to run on hype alone. Lets see.
They should have bought comcast or a streamer so they could run sports programming and amplify the ad biz.
Edit/update: sold already. The more accurate read may be this is canary in the coalmine and first spacex selling excess compute and now meta.
Thought there was not enough AI compute???
Might be first step towards AI bubble bursting. Stepping aside until i learn more on actual META cloud vision of future.
Dreamer
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Take care, here.
The dominant frontier models have high demand.
What we’re seeing are companies that “asipired” to greatness, bought the compute to support… and then have no demand because everyone wants to use Anthropic or Open AI.
Winners win most is what is developing here. There is excess compute for all inferior solutions. I suspect we will continue to see bare capacity (like the hyperscaler wannabe’s -NBIS and for those who have no way to leverage that infrastructure for profit - META, SPCX, etc.) sold to the winners to monetize.
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Pocketed some gains in TTD.
As i am known to do, i got insanely overweight in 1 name when i felt orice was crazy compelling, which was TTD at 17-18s.
Still a very large position for me, but happy to pocket gains on a nice up day and with price near $20.50.
Holding rest for $25 and will reevaluate from there. My guess is that means i will be holding thru the Aug ER, which likely causes a volatile stock move up or down.
Again - ESPR was overall profitable if grossly unfulfilling, but combined with some good trades and TTD, i am at a high YTD, i believe, although still below ATHs in mid-Dec or so when ESPR was cruising over $4.
Halfway thru the year, and mildly pleased where I am, all things considering.
Cash almost 50%. Will get back to looking at some names that have been beaten down lately. Likely buying later this week.
Still awaiting RAD101 phase 2 final data and hopefully subsequent stock pop. Expected to be a dilution if that occurs, so timing a sale will be tricky. Apparently RAD202 is the moneyshot and phase 1 data due in 2H-26. So RADX will either pay off this year or it wont.
Dreamer
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See my RADX thread…they announced positive news on 2 drugs and stock is halted.
Mssg board on stocktwits is divided and thinks company diluting, which was expected, but everyone mad bc they halted before letting price run on news.
So:
-
Stock may dip if dilution done at lower levels. Could be buying opp as company seems to have 3 promising trials at moment, and longer-term (without knowing dilution impact) this mkt cap should increase.
-
Maybe a partnership/deal announcement results?
-
There is supposed to be a 7/22 panel at a convention where company presents new data…so perhaps more info to come.
Alas i may not get the short term pop i wanted but this is sized at appropriate moonshot levels and is about a 3% allocation for me. So i can wait.
Dreamer
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Glad i pocketed those TTD gains!
Now at a multiyear low.
Again.
Again.
So scrounged up some testicular fortitude and bought it all back and more just now.
May the winds be on our backs!
Dreamer
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RADX shares cratered premarket and i bought 46% more around $2.45
Price fluctuating wildly but around $3.30 now and i have a limit order to sell the excess shares at $3.70.
It will take the sting off the big drop at least.
Dreamer
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sold some of the RADX excess. Keeping about 20% more than I started from last week. cause I like round numbers.
sold my excess TTD…back to a still oversized position but more palatable, after a nice pop in market today.
About 50% cash. Again.
Hopeful for a few good down days in market this week.
Some stuff in Space sector and elsewhere getting more agreeable.
Dreamer
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55% cash after paring a bit more TTD on gains today.
At a crossroads. Do I:
- invest in beaten down names I am interested in, and was in previously; oklo, rklb, lpth, beta, etc etc and maybe even new (to me) AI names beaten down like NBIS.
- await a further market meltdown, bc these drops have barely moved overall market, which remains up a crazy amount since 2022 lows (Nasdaq something like 10k to 25k in that span) despite drops in spring 2025 and spring 2026 that were really only bumps in the road in hindsight.
AI will be a commodity. I believe that. So probably not chasing NBIS.
Space is huge. (pun intended) But will space be profitable from now until someone actually can mine a pure palladium asteroid or something? Dunno.
Security is paramount. Anduril is private, and if something like Anthropic gets weaponized and becomes essentially a govt contractor, they will be hugely valued, but no way their IPO doesn’t already have too much valuation pumped in (see; SpaceX)
So I will stick with what I see as “rebound value” in TTD.
Stick with little moonshot like RADX.
But what else?
Or do I just need to sit on my hands for a while and see what unfolds?
Trump 2.0 is similar to 1.0. By the time his 2nd term finishes, everyone will be sick of him. So will he try and juice market or just be so jaded and loaded with crypto gains that he doesn’t care and starts doing stupid things that market reacts negatively to?
Not a political post. Just thinking from stock market reality and trying to project where the puck is going.
Dreamer
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Fuma making me rethink radx thesis. It is still fairly small regardless, and has been profitable in 2 trades so far. May cut it loose though.
Pared more TTD on strength.
My port is up around 7% since ESPR was sold. Making baby steps back towards YTD high and ATH from Dec.
While i do think TTD is a bargain here, it is familiarity that allows me to trade it…not a sense of huge return to growth coming soon.
Everything still feels rich.
At 70%+ cash
Maybe a new thing will present itself soon.
Dreamer
TTD is still my greatest Dreamer rec. In 8 years of owning and trading TTD, i’ve never lost money on a single trade. Lowest buy at 9.24 split adjusted, highest sell 129.63 (I miss you, Nov 2024). Never sold completely out during the drops but still held those 9.24 shares during the latest collapse. Latest buys in 18s, then 17s, then 16s. Sold the 16s for 11% return in 3 trading days. My heavy lean in right now is due to Jeff Green’s personal investment of $148m over three buys at 24.16, 24.97, and 25.08 back in early March.
I trust in Green to continue making me money. It’s about 11% position in my stock port. I’ll pare it back to 8-10 every time it goes over 12.
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Oh Jeff… ““This quarter did not meet the standard we set for ourselves…”
Horrible
Keeping any shares was a bad decision.
I had managed to make slight gains on TTD this year thru timely dip buys. But now stuck waiting for a slow uptrend or will have to decide to cut it loose.
Good company.
Bad stock (now)
Dreamer
Ps…radx sucks too. Only saving grace was i am heavy cash.
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Not sure how you describe this as a good company anymore. Good companies grow and keep their commitments. (from someone that had this as my largest position in Nov 2021)
They do $2.5-3b runrate. Are profitable.
Yes - a legit and good company.
Growth is more of a stock investor thing.
Is every company in s&p500 growing?
Either way - they dont look promising as a stock now. At least w my cost basis.
If you buy shares in morning, you may get a nice return.
Or it could get worse. I think there just may be too much competition out there, plus the macro headwinds.
I picked the wrong horse.
Dreamer