And bought toe dip on XTIA as basket approach in elec aviation along w my BETA.
15 stocks!
2 Likes
Fuma convinced me to drop NGEN, and in general i need to end my love affair w biotech “stories”.
Pared PRME all the way down except for taxable acct that has a nice gain.
Keeping RADX as my sole biotech moonshot.
Added LIFE, which i have used. Didnt realize they were fairly new public stock until seeing mentioned on saul board.
Added FLY for my beaten down space basket.
See youve got oklo and a beaten down space basket.
How do you feel about BWXT? …
Nice name…wasnt familiar but feels like possible basket play w oklo.
Ai says:
BWX Technologies (BWXT) — standalone summary
BWXT is a nuclear infrastructure + defense compounder anchored by U.S. government contracts and expanding commercial nuclear exposure.
⸻
What it does
- Builds and services U.S. Navy nuclear propulsion systems
- Manufactures nuclear reactors, components, and fuel handling systems
- Expanding into commercial nuclear + medical isotopes + advanced nuclear tech
⸻
Core investment engine
- Extremely durable multi-year U.S. government backlog
- High-barrier niche monopoly-like positioning in naval nuclear supply chain
- Growing exposure to:
- nuclear energy resurgence
- AI-driven power demand themes
⸻
Latest fundamentals (Q1 2026)
- Revenue: $860M (+26% YoY)
- EPS: $1.12 (beat estimates)
- Backlog: ~$8.65B (record, +~50% YoY)
- Full-year 2026 guidance:
- Revenue: ~$3.75B+
- EPS: $4.60–$4.75
- EBITDA: $650M–$665M
⸻
Growth profile
- High single to mid-teens structural growth business
- Not explosive, but:
- consistent
- backlog-supported
- cash-flow improving
⸻
Why the stock has worked
- “Nuclear is back” macro narrative (energy + defense + AI power demand)
- Record backlog expansion
- Strong execution + margin stability
- Re-rating from “defense contractor” → “strategic nuclear infrastructure asset”
⸻
Key risks
- Valuation risk (primary): trades at premium multiples for industrial/defense
- Expectation risk: already priced as “secular nuclear winner”
- Mix shift: commercial nuclear expansion adds cyclicality vs pure defense stability
⸻
How it behaves in a portfolio
- Low-to-mid volatility compounder
- Driven more by:
- multiple expansion/contraction
- macro nuclear/energy sentiment
- Less dependent on quarterly surprises than your high-beta names
⸻
Simple classification
- Not a moonshot
- Not a turnaround
- Not a hype stock
It is a defensive-growth nuclear infrastructure compounder with narrative-driven multiple expansion
⸻
Dreamer
1 Like
I think reality is i am too late to the nuclear/AI energy play. Bwxt seems like good company though. Probably selling okta if it runs close to $90.
Sold FLY today. Got enough space.
Sold LIFE…feels too telemarket-ish.
Added TTD on dip.
Added to HNGE and bits here and there.
Still 20% cash.
Dreamer
3 Likes
market disliking most of my names today. bought more TTD.
Sold GRRR which was up 20% yesterday and down 18% or so today. Basically announced a deal with SMCI and then diluted to finance said deal.
Enough with this silly AI DC dweebs. Moving on.
Dreamer
Selling out ptlo…sometimes a loser is just a loser.
Selling rdw on pop.
Taking todays pop as excuse to exit remaining prme.
15+ names never lasts long for me. Will inevitably whittle down to 10 or less.
1 Like
sold HNGE for 19% gain in fairly short time period.
might be a great business, but happy to take the gains and move on.
Down to 9 stocks.
Many names down today, so nibbling back with cash.
Dreamer
1 Like
Wow!!!
Great day to add to some names…market down 4.5%!
Have deployed almost all my cash.
TTD got the most, followed by FIGR, and ASTS.
9 stocks
Ttd
Tmdx
Figr
Asts
Rklb
Beta
Xtia
Oklo
Radx
Enjoy weekend all!
Dreamer
4 Likes
Dumped xtia…and BETA. Slight gain on both. Beta in particular has impressive CEO/founder, but may be early to the market.
Will look at add again if it dips hard in future.
Looking at some other targets.
Rdw tanking on dilution…may offer a reentry point.
TTD disappointing so far.
Tmdx showing signs of life.
Dreamer
1 Like
spidey sense alert
The often wrong/early/pointless spidey sense tingled and i sold…well…almost everything.
Sold asts and rklb. I like both, but especially rklb, but no spacex bump really materialized and stock ran hard before i bought in.
Hoping for spacex stock collapse (eventually) after ipo, and maybe catch them all at better price down the road.
Sold oklo…modest gain and already sold majority earlier for decent gain.
I am up since selling ESPR but not a ton.
Going to digest things for a bit and likely redeploy.
Good news is the recent activity has broadened my watchlist and freshened it up.
Also now looking at lpth, mrln, sitn.
It is hard for me to do LTBH on anything in this bipolar frothy market.
I doubt i am the first to say this, but gonna pretend i coined it anyway, and think we will be saying this a lot in the coming years/decades:
“AI ruins everything”
Dreamer
2 Likes
been heads down in a 2-hour work call.
Look up and market has tanked.
So all my sells look genius. ha.
Question: is my spidey sense real?
Question: am I living in a simulation and this is just today’s theme?
Question: what to do with my super power?
Question: why is my simulation never “philanthropic billionaire” mode?
Dreamer
kinda lame that I couldn’t really act on this drop today…real job got in the way.
oh well. still looks like a win to have sold out earlier.
perhaps these two big recent drops are signals of something bigger coming?
or could be a nothingburger…who knows.
Dreamer
yeah, feel like we’re due for overcorrection, but market remaining irrational for longer than i can remain solvent, etc… speaking of which, Im adding to Dexcom now and on any dips. still with a growing market that theyre unlocking, plus international growth - i feel like it should easily generate 10-15% annualized returns over the next decade. Boring, but sometimes you need less excitement.
1 Like
another down day…
In for toe dip with MRLN
Watching tickers and hoping for more downside dips.
Dreamer
2 Likes
bought toe dips in:
HNGE (again)
LPTH
SITM
MRLN
Already had: TTD, TMDX, FIGR, and RADX
Back to 8.
Looking to redeploy cash, likely in just these names but we will see, on weakness.
Dreamer
1 Like
Wow…TTD is really taking it on the chin in 2026.
Amazing fall.
Fairly unjustified, imo…moreso the current levels. I obviously sold years ago when I felt it was already overvalued (at that time).
For perspective, I sold at a split-adjusted $27.50 around Jan 2020. I was basically waiting for the new year to start to push out capital gains taxes a bit, because in July 2019 TTD was pretty much around the same price. Many may remember that Fall 2019 was a bit of a tech stock slump period when all the overheated winners took a breather, TTD included.
All that has happened since is TTD has grown into a 3b/yr runrate adtech leader, and it is debt free with ample cash and still founder-led by Jeff Green, who bought $150m in stock at $25 a month or so back.
The stock hit $18.41 today (my limit order) and was even lower.
Still a ways up from their IPO around $3 in 2016, but they were also about a $200m/yr company back then. Always profitable…which was something Green felt strongly about as he mentioned in his ER calls back then.
I get it…AI ruins everything.
AI may destroy adtech as we know it. But perhaps that is more the perception than the reality.
I am reminded of investing in NVDA (yes - I sold YEARS too soon) in 2015/2016 and watching an autonomous green NVIDIA vehicle driving towards their annual event. So cool. I was sure by time my youngest hit 16 in 2024 (8 years later) that I wouldn’t even have to worry about getting him a drivers license, as autonomous vehicles would be everywhere.
It has been 10 years, and we kinda sorta have only made a dent. Sure, the technology may be here, in some respects. But the execution is not.
My new mantra of “AI ruins everything” perhaps should be modified to “AI ruins everything…eventually.”
Because I am just not so sure Enterprise software, and the immensely large advertising business in the US and the world, are really changing overnight.
Case in point: I will make the statement that Musk is naive or misguided in thinking he will have 100 people on Mars in next 20 years, let alone 1000 or 1million. Sure, there are very likely millions of people that would happily do it. But the cost and logistics are likely not going to make it possible anytime soon.
Watch old scifi movies and snicker at some of the expected future tech that never materialized. Or just watch the Jetsons.
Yet Apple smartphones connected to an world wide web via a starlink satellite put in orbit by a private company’s rockets probably wasn’t on a lot of bingo cards 20 years ago.
Technology is moving. Constantly. We can all replay the movies of our lifetimes in our minds, and recall points in time. For me, I remember (binge) watching 24 on Netflix circa 2011 or so. Sometimes spotty playback. I had VOIP for a home phone line around 2007 if not earlier…many still had landlines. Work trips on planes had video displays on backs of the seats in front of us…cool. Then they disappeared bc we could all just use our tablets or smartphones as the internet on planes got better.
We blink, and I suddenly realize I can’t name a show on NBC, CBS, or ABC anymore. I subscribe and cancel ad nauseum in a round robin of HBO, Disney, Paramount, and Apple…cause I get my Netflix free thx to my TMobile cell plan, and Peacock is free thanks to my xfinity wifi. Because all the series I want to watch is on those streamers now. Can’t watch the Cubs or Bulls without a digital antenna, or I need to subscribe to their streaming channels.
Jeff Green predicted most of that…including the ad tiers for all.
Let’s see if he can pivot TTD into the agentic AI app age of ads that is coming.
Either way, I think a bounce to $25 is doable for an easy 35%, and eventually a return to $30, if I stick around that long.
Dreamer
3 Likes
TTD up like a rocket on day of spacex ipo…
Enjoy the weekend all!
Dreamer
2 Likes
I continue to think the longer trend is down. Revenue growth over the next several years is estimated around 10%. $12-$15 seems like a more reasonable valuation, assuming there isn’t further margin compression or even larger loss of market share from other competitors. Can a business like this really survive vs competitors that own their data and the cost of goods sold is effectively zero? In addition, Jeff Green is turning out to be a disaster in terms of putting a cohesive executive team together. His B class 10 for 1 voting right makes him accountable to almost no one. It seems like a very unattractive play for a large activist shareholder to step in and try and right the ship.
I am not in it for the next 10 years…just rebounds to $25-30 at this point for nice gains. Which I believe it can and will do. They likely lowballed Q1 guidance and should have a decent ER. Any agentic AI partnership announcement will do it by itself, too.
Sold SITM on Friday and LPTH today. SITM was a nice 10% little gain, and LPTH fairly flat overall and on today’s up day for the market, so I sold as I expect ups and downs this week with Iran nonsense used as the reason for the algo running wild.
Saving my buying for down days or specific stock drops and none today it looks like.
Dreamer
1 Like