Starting a new list.
Stock Date BMO/AMC
NET 2/10/22 AMC
UPST 2/15/22 AMC
KC, who is on 10-day injured reserve list with neck strain suffered when taking the market’s head fake at the opening on 1/12.
4 Likes
not set dates yet, so just listing for reference for me to look up as we get closer:
PTLO prev was 11/18, so maybe mid-Feb:
https://investors.portillos.com/events-and-presentations
SPG should be announcing CC date any day now. Prev was 11/1, so perhaps first week in Feb:
https://investors.portillos.com/events-and-presentations
GLBE prev was 11/9, so probably again in 2nd week of Feb:
https://investors.global-e.com/
Dreamer
Stock Date BMO/AMC
NET 2/10/22 AMC
UPST 2/15/22 AMC
SPG 2/7/22 AMC
Hey Lurkers! I know you love my polls and are shy and stuff, but maybe this thread is something you can crawl out of your shells and contribute to?
Stock Date BMO/AMC
SPG 2/7/22 AMC
NET 2/10/22 AMC
UPST 2/15/22 AMC
DOCN 2/24/22 BMO
If you add, please try to sort by date, thx!
Dreamer
Added DDOG, AFRM, ANET, SHOP
SPG 2/7/22 AMC
DDOG 2/10/22 BMO
NET 2/10/22 AMC
AFRM 2/10/22 AMC
ANET 2/14/22 AMC
SHOP 2/16/22 BMO
UPST 2/15/22 AMC
DOCN 2/24/22 BMO
A.J.
Wondering when TTD and ROKU will report…
1 Like
added GLBE, which coincides with SHOP, I note. TTD added and is BMO. Nothing on PTLO or OLO yet.
Added AMPL ROKU and MNDY.
SPG 2/7/22 AMC
DDOG 2/10/22 BMO
NET 2/10/22 AMC
AFRM 2/10/22 AMC
ANET 2/14/22 AMC
UPST 2/15/22 AMC
TTD 2/16/22 BMO
SHOP 2/16/22 BMO
GLBE 2/16/22 AMC
AMPL 2/16/22 AMC
ROKU 2/17/22 AMC
MNDY 2/23/22 BMO
DOCN 2/24/22 BMO
On side note, I think DDOG reporting earlier than most is helpful. Given their large mkt cap and valuation (still a double since May 2021 low) how the market reacts to them post-ER may be telling. I am sure numbers will be good if not great. One dangerous area most of these companies are in is that a new FY is about to start, and guidance is usually sandbagged the most the further out you look. TTD was great at this. Call X number for upcoming year - then proceed to beat and raise every Q. But it also gives market an excuse to crush stock by saying “look at forecast…they are slowing!!”
Maybe DDOG is a future megacap. Could be. I feel like the megas all have consumer-ish ties though, probably which speaks to larger overall TAMs. Amazon is both b2b with AWS and b2c. MSFT is same in a sense, as most of pc’s we use for personal use run windows and/or we use Office in some capacity, but largely MSFT is a B2B beast. Apple mainly b2c. FB/Meta b2c, but a big deal for many businesses, too. NVDA plays to both. For now, DDOG is purely a b2b nuanced monitoring/security tool. I haven’t looked into their products in a while, so I may need updating. Point is, I would love to own DDOG at $5-10b mkt cap and ride it to $25b and exit, but that isn’t in the cards. Maybe they make some strategic acquisitions or pivots that make me change my mind down the road.
Either way, point is that if DDOG falters post-ER, I think it gives the green light for other SaaS to get punched in the face some more. If DDOG pops hard, I think it gives hope to the MNDYs and AMPL of the world. We will see.
Dreamer
4 Likes
AMPL is down 17% and I guess that it might be somehow connected to FB.
Glad I didn´t buy MNDY and AMPL.
Thanks for the update!
If DDOG pops hard, I think it gives hope to the MNDYs and AMPL of the world.
Up 13.5%. I sold about 9% of my shares pre-market. Thinking of putting that into NET, AFRM, UPST or GLBE. NET is up 2.7% premarket, AFRM +3.0%. They report after the close today. Have a lot of UPST already. Maybe GLBE which is down 1%. They don’t report 'til 16th though.
KC
4 Likes
I sold 13% of my shares today @ $180. Eyeballing it looks like 52-wk high was ~$196. I’m OK reducing stock/raising cash. I don’t have a target for proceeds yet, sti9ll watching nd waiting for sufficient info to make a move.
5
probably a good call.
i was getting ready to make a DDOG poll ala my ZM vs CAKE poll.
Stuck on who the competition should be.
DDOG return over next 12 months vs Ford (F) or something equally boring?
I Just think they are at a $4b runrate in a couple years, growth likely slower by then, which causes multiple compression. You look at something like ZM today already at $4b runrate and DDOG mkt cap has left them in the dust. So that all works out if DDOG does eventually do $10-20b/yr in revenues, but there is just as much a chance that they get disrupted or flatline as there is in them becoming another NOW or ADBE or CRM.
I think May 2021 was the last/best chance to really ride DDOG, for a 50%-ish CAGR for 12-18 months. At their size, that becomes harder and harder. The GOOGL/AAPL/NVDA/AMZN and even MSFT titans of the world have consumer aspects that DDOG lacks. So I think the closest comparisons might be “can you become the next ADBE/NOW/CRM”. Totally possible, but I am just not sure how mission-critical their tech is yet or how strong the moat if the other giants start to go after their piece of the pie.
Remains to be seen if the inflation scare today heralds start of another drawdown or if 1/24/22 was essentially the May 2021 dip that should have been jumped on a bit harder by me.
Dreamer
4 Likes
added PTLO
ROKU 2/17/22 AMC
MNDY 2/23/22 BMO
DOCN 2/24/22 BMO
PTLO 3/10/22 BMO
looks like PLTR announced. Seems they may have some bloated exec comp for a company not exactly killing it. unless it goes single digits, not sure I am interested at moment:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3801335-palantir-nears-52-week…
Dreamer
Today I sold AMPL & SHOP after earnings slumps (a gross understatement with AMPL). I sort of kick myself with AMPL-my position didn’t match my confidence as I was swayed by influencers, grr 
I also missed “red flags” as sometimes I gloss over the many posts on Saul’s. Really cost me on this one. To add insult to injury, thought I’d be a smarty-pants and get a little income for a short put while waiting to buy more. Possibly my worst single options loss, but I don’t want to mess around with a $75 put when the stock is low 20’s. I don’t know what to call this sickness.
I read the SHOP call and there’s just not enough lipstick to put on this earnings report and guidance (?) to make it attractive. They’re simply “building” in 2022…translated, we’ll suck for at least a year. The divergence between shop and GLBE is stark. I’m liking GLBE especially in light of the SHOP woes. May add, but will hold at least for now.
5
1 Like
added ol’ buddy ESTC. Their cloud component was growing, but also founder/ceo shifted to cto and new CEO brought in. That can be good (see MSFT/AAPL/GOOGL) but also crappy. At least founder still involved and not just on the board.
They may have interesting numbers, but have been DDOG’s perennial whipping boy thus far. Back to $81 today, I noticed. A dip into 70s/60s pre-earnings could be enticing.
MNDY 2/23/22 BMO
DOCN 2/24/22 BMO
ESTC 3/3/22 AMC
PTLO 3/10/22 BMO
Dreamer
1 Like
added SNOW, S
MNDY 2/23/22 BMO
DOCN 2/24/22 BMO
ZS 2/24/22 AMC (this is their FY Q2, so wouldn’t be new guidance for a full year)
SNOW 3/2/22 AMC
ESTC 3/3/22 AMC
PTLO 3/10/22 BMO
S 3/15/22 AMC
1 Like
added TDOC, MDB
TDOC 2/22/22 AMC
MNDY 2/23/22 BMO
DOCN 2/24/22 BMO
ZS 2/24/22 AMC (this is their FY Q2, so wouldn’t be new guidance for a full year)
SNOW 3/2/22 AMC
ESTC 3/3/22 AMC
MDB 3/8/22 AMC
PTLO 3/10/22 BMO
S 3/15/22 AMC
3 Likes
TDOC 2/22/22 AMC
MNDY 2/23/22 BMO
DOCN 2/24/22 BMO
ZS 2/24/22 AMC (this is their FY Q2, so wouldn’t be new guidance for a full year)
SNOW 3/2/22 AMC
ESTC 3/3/22 AMC
MDB 3/8/22 AMC
PTLO 3/10/22 BMO
S 3/15/22 AMC
TDOC appears to have been a dud for anyone keeping score.
Interesting to me because they bought LVGO (a then-saul-darling) for much more than current overall mkt cap. Craziness. It was a pandemic and free money kids. Always-up-bro isn’t really a thing.
pretty sure I am jinxing it here, but I loaded up on some MNDY at prices equal/near the 1/24 and 1/28 recent lows.
feel like, if they were ever going to have a good post-ER pop, then sliding to that low right before the ER (which is BMO tomorrow) is about as good a positioning as you could hope for.
Caveat is that I still think it is too expensive.
2nd caveat is that thinking stuff was too expensive cost me a lot since march 2020, at least on certain stocks not named Zoom, such as DDOG, NET, and ZS, etc…
So I put the odds at 50/50.
Or in pointless TA terms:
- it may go down, at which point it may go up or further down. once that direction is confirmed, then we know which way the trend is.
- just flip the above.
Good luck MNDY!
And then I added some DOCN back in advance of their ER on 2/24. If we have a down day tomorrow, I may add more. I don’t expect DOCN to light world on fire, but they aren’t valued that way either. Cloud names have shown good results this ER season, and hope they would also. Guidance in the 35-40% range is probably ok for them. If they are 40%+, then potentially really good pop.
while I don’t expect ZS to have poor earnings, a post-ER drop wouldn’t surprise me just due to valuation. Perhaps they will lowball guidance. As I noted above though, in their favor this is mid-FY, so they don’t have to provide guidance for a full new fiscal year or anything.
Dreamer
2 Likes
ESTC 3/3/22 AMC
MDB 3/8/22 AMC
PTLO 3/10/22 BMO
S 3/15/22 AMC
Just thought I would repost, as this is getting buried.
MDB should be interesting as it has really come back to earth a bit, and a faller drop post-ER could make me interested in an MDB/SNOW data basket at the right prices.
PTLO and S still to come, too.
Our ol’ friend Elastic reported decent Elastic-y type numbers. Getting a mild pop.
Typical ESTC though, as it tries to pop on a down day at moment. New CEO, same old story…
They did win a lawsuit against Amazon, but seems too little too late.
I think overall this is a commentary on open-source-based stocks. DDOG built on friggin elastic, running away with it. Heard Databricks is like SNOW, but open source. So that already makes me want to give the edge to SNOW.
Dreamer
added PATH
MDB 3/8/22 AMC
PTLO 3/10/22 BMO
S 3/15/22 AMC
PATH 3/30/22 AMC
as multiples continue to contract, there may be more and more companies worth looking into.
have to be careful not to get tricked into time-wasting on cheap garbage. Still garbage.
PLTR, PATH, OLO, SOFI, ROKU…all examples of stocks that have some flaws but worth watching lower. Maybe.
Anyone else still left of note in this ER season?
Dreamer