ESPR - Esperion - taking on the Statin market

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
181

Greetings, Dreamer. I am still holding. ESPR is 4.35% of my IRA, 3.43% of taxable. Taxable is down an even 20%. The IRA is, in reality, essentially down the same. However, I was swing trading in the IRA with FIFO, so the position shows as up 118% from buying the dips. Makes it more pleasant to look at, like eating chocolate…

The Treasury ETF’s paid the monthly dividends today, so put that to work in the bitcoin etf’s. That’s about all of the excitement that my investing brings these days.

Hope all is well,

KC

182

Hey KC!

Nice pop today.
I also bought back into PTLO after ER beatdown. Is $7.50 the bottom? Could be an easy 50% play based on stock action past two years.

ICU is a microcap i threw a couple pennies at. Just diluted for last time possibly for a while and products getting good reviews. Wouldnt take much to move this one, but also need to be ready to lose it all.

If Esperion gets their Otsuka milestone payments without drama in/by Nov/q4, the stock may finally be ready for getting rerated higher, provided they keep the US sales growth around 10% q/q or higher.

I will sell some excess shares at 3, maybe a bit more at 4, but still holding out for a buyout. If no buyout and I wake up one day and they are 8-10, will be hard not to exit with a smile.

I sold TTD at $27, NVDA at $100b mkt cap, and generally exit with gains left on the table, and i am fine with that.

SPG was about the only one where I seem to have sold the top, at 165-170, although i have missed out on all the dividends since exiting.

Que sera sera!

Dreamer

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183

apparently Japan hearing for Otsuka regarding Nexletol takes place end of Aug, which should translate to Oct pricing, and potentially getting all milestone payments needed from Otsuka in time to pay off remaining Notes without further dilution or shenanigans.

We will see!

Dreamer

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184

Very nice upgraded guidelines in Europe

https://www.esperion.com/news-releases/news-release-details/esperions-bempedoic-acid-receives-level-1a-recommendation

This should only accelerate Euro sales which have been in 70% y/y+ range. DSE still owes sales milestones of approx $300m, which might be triggered in 2027, and royalties should revert to Esperion prior to 2029, netting a runrate of $200m+/yr at that point.

On Japan front, news is imminent as Otsuka was before review board earlier today in Japan. Late Friday there, so news Monday or early in week. Approval kicks off up to $120m in milestone payments.

On US front, scripts have been slowly flat/up all Q3 so far. Should be in ballpark of 10% q/q growth.

They already settled w 3 ANDA filers for patent coverage thru 2040. As more news solidifies their patent protection, it would exponentially value company higher, bc you extend peak earnings another 5-10 years depending what final patent year is granted.

Explain to me how this isnt a growth stock?

Enjoy the holiday weekend!

Dreamer

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185

Stock has rebounded well.

Question is if it will finally cruise past $3-4 and become valued where i think it should be $6-8, with buyout potential of 8-12 or more, depending on ANDA/patent news and new indications or partnerships.

Otsuka milestones should hit soon.

That may mark a turning point in the company.

Dreamer

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186

Progressing as expected

https://www.esperion.com/news-releases/news-release-details/esperion-partner-otsuka-receives-regulatory-approval-market

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187

Another ANDA settlement. No generic from Dr Reddys until 2040.

Otsuka partnership and milestones on track.

Q126 US guideline updates expected to favor Esperion.

Tailwinds are growing.

If 2040 is actual final patent date, just on DSE and Otsuka royalties alone, they should have a decade of 500m/yr in pure profit.

US sales should be another $250-500m/yr in net profit 2030-2040.

market cap less than $1b at moment, assuming fully diluted warrants/options at 275m shares.

You do the math.

Actual company, actual product, actual sales. Compare that to no-sales drig pipeline companies being bought for 5-10b.

Enjoy the weekend all,

Dreamer

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188

This bipoloar stock is making my portfolio need therapy. The numbers and story still feel too good to be true and I just keep wondering what am I missing. Enjoying the ride for now!

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189

Come on man.

04:11 PM EDT, 10/07/2025 (MT Newswires) – Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) said late Tuesday it launched a public offering of common shares.

The company will grant underwriters a 30-day overallotment option to buy up to an additional 15% of the shares offered, according to a statement.

Esperion shares fell 17% during after-hours activity.

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190

Mgmt are incompetent or crooks.

This doesnt change fundamentals…the cash will help, obviously.

but it hurts the buyout price bc more shares, so that will suck.

very light on info, so i will have more to say once the purpose/reasoning for this is made more clear. Otsuka milestones still on track, etc…?

Dreamer

Ps…and there goes the ATH. Luckily i sold some on 9/22 (but at 2.60, so not over $3 this past week) and spread it among PRME and others. And I still am about 10% cash so depending on how far ESPR falls, i may do a swing trade.

PSii: More likely though, i leave ESPR alone and focus on these other stocks and find more. At this point, Esperion thesis either plays out or it doesnt. Watching the price just causes ulcers and aint nobody got time for that.

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191

Im not sure if its the incompetent or crooks part but its certainly one of them. I just went back and reread the transcripts as I was pretty sure I had heard them say they had no need for cash and would be fully profitable by Q1Y26 and sure enough in the recent healthcare conference Benjamin Halladay (CFO) and Sheldon Koenig (CEO) said they had “ample cash” multiple times. in fact they said they had ample cash now and had large milestones payments coming from Otsuka.

This was at the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference on Sept 3rd 2025.

This was about a month ago.. so this is really surprising to me.

I also reviewed their Q2 Earnings call and again they mentioned multiple times how they had ample cash and equivalents. Maybe they had to pay to settle with Dr Reddy’s?

Anyhow, it will be interesting to see what the reasoning behind this is. It still seems like there is a lot of opportunity to make a significant return on this stock but issues like this dont build confidence in the CEO/CFO.

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192

I sent IR complaints from 2 diff emails and got responses to both.

Question was basically: why dilute when mgmt just stated at Sept investor confs that “cash position was great”?

Here are responses:

“Thank you for your note, we understand and appreciate your concern regarding dilution and want to provide some context around this decision. As management has shared, our cash position remains strong, and we continue to believe we have sufficient resources to fund operations for the foreseeable future. The recent equity offering was not a result of any changes in our liquidity outlook, but rather a strategic decision to capitalize on several recent positive developments – including the settlement with Dr. Reddy’s, which meaningfully increases the likelihood of a 10-year extension of market exclusivity, and the favorable ESC guideline inclusion, which we expect to be reflected similarly in upcoming U.S. guidelines. This offering provides us with the opportunity to bolster our growth through expanded sales and marketing initiatives and to position the company to fully optimize these opportunities.

Thank you,

Esperion Investor Relations”

“Thank you for your note, we understand and appreciate your concern regarding dilution and want to provide some context around this decision. As management has shared previously, we continue to believe that our financial position remains strong and we continue to believe that we have sufficient runway to fund operations for the foreseeable future. The recent equity offering was not the result of a change in our liquidity outlook, but rather a strategic decision to capitalize on several resent positive developments, including the settlement with Dr. Reddy’s, which meaningfully increases the likelihood of a 10-year extension of market exclusivity, and the favorable ESC guideline inclusion, which we expect to be reflected similarly in upcoming guidelines. We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering, together with existing cash, to support the ongoing commercialization of NEXLETOL and NEXLIZET, advance our pipeline, and to bolster our growth through expanded sales and marketing initiatives and to position the company to fully optimize these opportunities.

Thank you,

Esperion Investor Relations”

Dreamer

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193

I had sent a very similar question to them and got basically the same answer as what you did. The most interesting part of that statement was that they decided to capitalize on the recent positive developments at a price of $2.50.. which seems like a crap price to me but apparently what they believe is reasonable. Makes me a little bit worried about how they are valuing the company.

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194

https://www.esperion.com/node/18356/html

japan launch and another $90m in bank.

Another investor conf on 12/3.

Time for a perfect storm scenario.

2026 almost here. Assuming no short term buyout, what is stock price of eaperion at beg and end of 2028:

Esperion ($ESPR) 2028 Projections (275M Fully Diluted Shares)

Stock Price as Standalone Public Company

• Beginning of 2028: $18–$24/share ($5.0–6.6B market cap)

• End of 2028: $38–$48/share ($10.5–13.2B market cap)

Realistic Buyout/Takeout Range (2028–2030)

• Base case (BA franchise only, no pipeline heroics): $12–16B ($44–$58/share, ~20–25× 2028 FCF)

• With moderate pipeline success (one orphan >$1B peak, positive data): $16–20B ($58–$73/share)

• $20B+ only if both PSC + kidney programs are clear Phase 2/3 winners with $2B+ combined peaks.

Most probable outcome: Acquired for $14–18B sometime 2028–2030 once FCF >$500M/yr is undeniable.

From today’s ~$590M cap → 24–31× return.

Key Assumptions in 2028+ Projections for $ESPR
1 U.S. net product sales growth: 40% YoY sustained through 2028 (from ~$150–160M 2025 run-rate → ~$590M in 2028), driven by U.S. guidelines update Q1 2026, >90% payer access, DTC/marketing ramp.
2 Total opex cap: $300M/year all-in (SG&A + R&D + COGS) from 2026 onward (company reaches breakeven 2026, then levers fixed costs sharply).
3 DSE royalties: Revert fully in 2027–2028 (OMERS cap paid off Q4 2027); 2028 sales $1B+, Esperion receives full 20–25% blended ($220–250M).
4 Otsuka Japan royalties: 2028 sales $600–800M → 15–30% tiered royalties ($180M average).
5 No additional major milestones included (only recurring royalties; excludes potential Otsuka sales milestones).
6 ANDA settlements hold: U.S. exclusivity locked to April 2040 (all filers except Alkem settled; Alkem litigation fails to break early).
7 OMERS royalty liability: Fully paid off by end-2027 (~$294M remaining Sep 2025 + growth).
8 Debt: 2025 converts paid off Nov 2025; only $250M remaining (2030 converts + Athyrium loan) with ~$30M annual interest.
9 Pipeline (ACLy next-gen): Liver (PSC) and kidney programs progress positively (Phase 2 clean data by 2028); each assigned $1B+ peak sales potential for valuation premium (no revenue required yet).
10 Tax rate: ~20% post-NOL utilization from 2027–2028 onward.
11 Share count: ~275M fully diluted (includes warrants, options, 2030 converts).
12 No major new dilution post-2025 (FCF covers everything from 2027).
13 No competition erosion pre-2040; BA remains preferred non-statin oral.
14 Macro: No recession, stable pricing/reimbursement environment.
These are the core inputs behind the $10–12B+ 2028 value (standalone or takeout). Change any one (e.g., slower growth, higher opex) and the range compresses; stronger execution/pipeline pushes it higher.

Enjoy the weekend all, and have a happy Thanksgiving next week!

Dreamer

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195

I love the optimistic analysis. Only issue I really see with it is that I think you dont have the recent dilution in the current market cap. Should be around 240M shares outstanding with about 680M market cap. This seems like a very good bet overall.. but Im sure Sheldon has a couple wildcards up his sleeve that wont be communicated properly.

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196

Not sure what you mean? My estimate is even more conservative with 275m share count.

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197

sorry for not being more clear.. comment was on

“From today’s ~$590M cap → 24–31× return.”..

I believe current share count is ~237M shares.. price was approaching $3 at the time.. market cap should have been around 690M. I was guessing that you werent adding in the dilution event post Q3.. but could have also just put a 5 instead of a 6. I agree with your fully diluted estimates for 28.. great overall analysis. Today is a fun day to be in ESPR.. likely driven by updated analysis/price targets from Piper Sandler. Looking forward to continuous catalysts ahead over the next couple of years.

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198

that was AI hallucinating. Which is odd bc it spit out the correct number of shares I gave in the assumption. I have noticed AI is not good on being on top of current market price or current market cap. The rest seems accurate.

and a huge day on no news for Esperion fans today.
eerily familiar and deja vu with the runup into Thanksgiving and thru about first week in Dec, before it began a plunge from $3.90 to $0.69. And now back to about $3.65.

Made some swing trades and added around and under $1 during the dark dark days of late Spring this year. That made all the difference.

Dreamer

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199

I was too much of a chicken to buy more ESPR down in the Sub $1 range. I got into a substantial amount of Jan 26 $2 Calls which i have now been selling over the last week.. Ive kept about half and we will see what happens over the next 1.5 months.

My two biggest positions right now are ESPR and PGY and its been fun to buy long dated Calls as I seem terrible at predicting anything very short/mid term but the long term calls on relatively small cap stocks seem to provide enough time length to balance out. This is in addition to owning substantial shares in both.

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200

2025 ACC Scientific Statement on PAD in Diabetes Patients — Key Points & Impact

• Publication: Dec 19, 2025, in JACC (open access).

• Recommendation: Bempedoic acid positioned as first-line add-on for LDL-C lowering in PAD + diabetes patients on max-tolerated statins.

•  Target: >50% LDL-C reduction + goal <55 mg/dL.

•  Therapies with **proven CV + limb benefits**: High-intensity statins + ezetimibe/PCSK9i/**bempedoic acid**.

• Data Basis: CLEAR Outcomes subgroup (PAD patients) showed bempedoic acid reduced major adverse limb events (MALE) — critical for PAD (amputation, revascularization risk).

• CEO Quote: Reinforces BA role in closing treatment gaps; anticipates inclusion in full U.S. dyslipidemia guidelines (early 2026).

Impact on Esperion

• Positive Catalyst: First U.S. society endorsement beyond lipids — elevates BA in high-risk PAD/diabetes cohort (~10–15M U.S. patients, overlapping statin-intolerant).

• Sales Tailwind: Reinforces CV + limb outcomes (unique vs. PCSK9s); drives specialist (vascular/cardiologists) adoption + payer coverage.

• Precursor to 2026 Guidelines: Builds momentum for broader ACC/AHA cholesterol update (Q1 2026) — likely stronger non-statin positioning.

• Stock: Incremental positive (adds to Otsuka launch momentum); no immediate spike expected, but supports growth narrative into guidelines.

Solid derisking step — BA now “evidence-based” for limb risk, expanding beyond pure lipids.

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