It’s a great place to get ideas. I notice it has slowed down. Bear , Stock Novice, and Saul no longer give their summaries, and there is less activity.
I used to just copy the recommendations, but now, I do an independent valuation and a qualitative analysis of the company.
I usually like about 1/30th of the recommendations.
Patience. Experience is that a declining market attracts much less attention than a bull market. No doubt many will be back when they see good investment opportunities. Falling knives are attractive if you get it right but much more fun when they are recovering.
9/10 stocks there will never see their all-time high again. Nice for trading but you have to be very early when the recommendations come from them, who comes too late is suddenly punished with -30% 
I find TMDX the funniest. Often discussed but nobody has built up a large position there, mostly just a small short position although the stock is probably one of the best and safest bets right now. Soon many will jump back in when it reaches +120$
I think we’ll never hear from some of them again or they’ll need 1-2 years to save up to gamble here again
TMDX in general is a funny one.
I talked to our organ donation teams. TMDX expensive, drive a hard bargain, but can make some things easier from logistics perspective and often everything is covered.
The organ donation teams are getting pushed to turn profits and are increasingly taking questionable organs. TMDX helps logistics in a fragmented regional market. They help donation services make more money.
TMDX allows surgeons to wait to operate until daylight hours.
So the anecdotes were there. It’s not necessarily a better product, but helps some pain points. On paper, TMDX isn’t really a better product, but it doesn’t matter. Robotic surgery doesn’t result in better outcomes- but it’s a powerful marketing tool for a paying customer for high margin procedures - so ISRG won. I think were seeing history rhyme here.
Tracking flights really is the thing that minimizes investment risk. While I find management highly suspect, loudmouthed, and fairly inept medically- it’s hard to argue with flight data, and there really isnt a national transport competitor. There’s a bunch of tailwinds here too- privatizing everything, consolidation of a fragmented market, increasing national violence = more organs, a push to transplant more patients, etc…
I really miss Bear and Stocknovice and of course Saul. Its amazing timing Saul stepped away right when this 15 year bull run imploded. Also sauls board doesnt admit new posters because after the migration DMs no longer work so there’s no way to ask to be approved.
There is a Request Ability to Post link near the bottom of the right sidebar (Announcements) on Saul’s board. Click it and it pulls up a form where you can request the ability to post and Saul and his team will review it.
yeah - I never got a reply.
fuma lives! it’s been a while. Always appreciate your insight into the medical/drug stocks.
hey Fuma,
I am hearing you know the medical field/stocks a bit, so curious if you are interested in taking a look at this R&D day webcast from today;
new ACLY inhibitor drug candidate announced for PSC/Liver.
https://www.esperion.com/events/event-details/2025-rd-day
the KOL’s that guest presented today seemed legit and very knowledgeable.
Concept is that PSC is just the first Indication targeted, and we should think about allosteric ACLY inhibition as a platform/mechanism, which they cover in the R&D day a bit too, and future applications and drug candidates are expected for kidney, and then perhaps oncology.
Dreamer
Hi there!
thoughts on ACLY:
Esperion falls under ALL of those categories.
If this was a preclinical multi-billion dollar company - like Nektar during Sauls touting of NKTR, I’d say run like hell… but its not. Its a company with a product, and it may have a P/S of 1 by the end of the year at this rate ($116m product sales, $182m market cap)…
Investing in penny stocks is always risky, and Esperion has tried to make this drug a thing for a LONG time for different disease states… Its the small numbers that scare me away. If you said this was a $1.2b company with $750m sales growing 50% annually, I’d probably say buy harder plus it would be an attractive takeover candidate… not for me, but if you told me this became a $500m company +bought out at $800m within the next 2 years, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Invest like BPA is its only asset - because it is. I’d ignore anything without P2 results from this one. This story is strictly BPA sales for the next 5 years (if not longer). Good find, just not for me.
Both your posts have great feedback. Much appreciated.
Their partner for Europe, Daiichi Sankyo or DSE, had sales of approx $250m in their FY just ended.
They forecasted $400m @ 60% growth for coming FY.
Otsuka is their Japan partner and starts selling later this year.
Esperion should do something like $155-165m in US sales this year.
Does knowing they did $365m in global sales last year and should do $560m in global sales this year make them seem more real to you?
I get the notion of ignoring any unnapproved preclinical next gen ACLY inhibitor drug candidates and just focusing on their approved Bemp Acid drugs only.
I guess it is the tech/growth investor in me equating it to TTD’s tiny CTV business, or NVDA being thought of only as a gaming pc gpu company, or MDB move to the Atlas cloud product, etc…
Plus in biotech world, it feels like they LOVE the backup QB that isnt actually on the field more than the known starter that is doing ok but isnt taking anyone to the Super Bowl.
Agree 100% on mgmt though. CEO on paper had ok pedigree…worked on Zetia at Merck, Sanofi CV, etc. but i think market dislikes him and doesnt trust him.
If US sales were performing like DSE was in Europe all would be good.
I guess that brings up the question “can you expect small biotech/pharma companies to successfully mkt and sell their drugs, or is that always best left to Big Pharma…so goal is a buyout?”
Enjoy the weekend,
Dreamer
So when i first responded re: Esperion, it felt familiar. Then when you mentioned their partner, it hit me - Esperion is giving bluebirdbio / 270 vibes with Abecma. I think M&A is really drying up and big pharma has realized, “why buy this asset at a premium while it is losing cash when I can scoop it up at the fire sale.” … It seems many of the bigger guns have recently taken lessons from BlackRock and KKR. Having a partner is a gift and a curse - but mostly it keeps you afloat for your next big idea. If there isnt one, your valuation is going to stay limited. (where were at now) … keep the tech/growth investor on the sidelines for biotech. it will get you hurt - like literally every pre-approved mess Saul’s board ever got into - you’re spot on with the backup QB love. Those rarely hit - and they need to have a TON of optionality - and if it does, it will likely get bought out (the last one like this might be opdivo tbh).
The difference is that there are big tailwinds - NVDA as a chipmaker in early 2000s and MDB on atlas both have alot of flexibility into other markets; for drugs, that’s not necessarily the case. And what I recently realized is to be really careful thinking one company has an advantage and can become the entire platform for X type of drug. If that were true, Kite and Legend would have run away with CART by now.
can tiny companies be successful? overwhelmingly no. You have lottery tickets where the win isnt worth the cost of admission because they’re hard to time correctly. Trying to find an undervalued biotech with growth prospects is HARD. but here goes some ideas.
immunocore has a product and taking a unique approach - but again, hard to replicate one drugs success into other drugs - otherwise one pharma would own all the mAbs, or all the egfr drugs.
iovance - if you think one company can actually dominate TILs … same issue as immunocore though.
BPMC - has an inevitable blockbuster in a niche market - though still waiting for act 2
Exel might have a second trick up its sleeve - but if its positive i bet they get bought out.
Novocure - though have a really hard time buying companies split between the US and Israel (Dont @me - this isnt about the wars, its about Nanox and general shadiness… but I think NVCR looks like it has some optionality).
I have looked hard at:
USPT - physical therapy sites; consolidating a fragmented market
radnet - same, but for radiology
IRMD - MRI compatible pumps - gives lemaitre vibes
KIDS- i love orthopediatrics. the market doesnt agree with me. peds trauma and surgery isnt going to slow down. the birth rate might though?
payloaded antibodies, though remixed for radiation. Specifically, lantheus and those around it. They are becoming a god in the space, the question is will Novartis and GE healthcare let them exist.
TMDX… see prior post
irhythm and the ziopatch likely have a future role, im surprised they haven’t grown more. the SaaS model for monitoring (ie, DXCM or resmed) is likely to continue beating the market as the competition from generics just isnt as high.
10x material? probably not. potentially some market beaters in that list? probably. will the entire basket as a whole (“basket approach”) beat the market ? probably doubt it, the winners get kneecapped by buyouts.
Nor did get a reply.
