From a brief look, I think they covered 1-3 but haven’t listened/watched it yet. Market seems very unimpressed. Can only wait for earnings now and see if “profitability” is really coming sooner than expected as mentioned in the video I previously posted.
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will have more to say.
TMF makes it much easier to write more and add more DD here than X or the swamp that is stocktwits. But I also just want to make it abundantly clear that no one should be blindly following me and purchasing. ESPR has gotten way too weird and been a poor investment (depending when you bought!).
However, it is an interesting exercise for me, and maybe a cautionary tale on biotech/pharma investments in general, and I see much more value than is in the current stock price, so I think it can be a learning experience as this either implodes further or ends with a happy buyout for all.
The net on the Investor Day is that it was all-around very well done, I thought.
Speakers with impressive pedigrees, the science was solid, and to your point they hit on #1 and #3 from my earlier post.
I think it paints a good picture of future IP and, in theory, additional worth of the company to an acquirer or partner, but questions remain largely on the US business, which they need to grow to essentially pay the bills.
Then you have all sort of questions around the patent timelines, incoming competition, the uncertainty around future milestones and royalties (again tied to patents, imo), an ever-evolving insurance/payer landscape.
Side note: their European Partner DSE reported last night.
More to say on that, but white is completed Q’s and yellow is projected.
Converted from Euros to USD at 1.14 rate.
The Green is current guesstimate when DSE royalties will revert back to Esperion.
While their last Q seems a bit light, they already guided for 60% y/y growth for this next fiscal year, and assumption is they will beat that, so doesn’t seem to be any concern about sales slowing any time soon. I did build in decreasing/conservative growth rates into the numbers either way.
Enjoy the weekend all,
Dreamer
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Another 5% move day. Sure seems that ESPR could be traded for fun and profit…
KC
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Again, no revenue outlook, only expense outlook for 2025.
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I am at the point where I wouldn’t recommend this except as a small lotto ticket.
What has changed:
- appears company is more likely to GIA vs taking a buyout or doing a US partnership with a significant Big Pharma (BP). The latter was the goal, for me, in this investment.
- today they announced a partnership for Canada, and bc a lot of the thought/hope was that the delay on the Canada partnership front was tied to a BP that would want all of North America in any partnership, that led me to land squarely on #1.
- they continue to spend and they are stuck in this financially awkward supply relationship with their EU partner DSE. Essentially they lose a bit of money on the pills they provide. DSE is crushing it…projected to do over $400m in EU in their new FY that just started. Ironically, the more DSE sells, the higher Esperion’s costs. A “tech transfer” was agreed upon in Jan 2024 that was supposed to alleviate this issue. the adage of watch what I do, not what I say, applies here. Per the ER Tuesday, this tech transfer sure seems to be moving slowly (still). One has to wonder if DSE is purposely slow-walking this thing, knowing their little US company friend is limited for cash, in the hopes of buying them ultra cheap if/when things get desperate. I am not much for conspiracy theories, but if it walks like a duck…
- Otsuka milestone is the key to not needing to dilute/raise money for 2025. $115m in cash at end of Q1, but with US sales ramping slower than hoped, they are burning thru it a bit too quickly. They are all good if they collect the expected $130m milestone when Otsuka launches sales in Q3/Q4. But what if Japan delays them…what if Otsuka plays games like DSE?
- US sales number was ok in Q1, but it is “complicated” bc it was more a right-sizing of accounting tied to medicare and rebates vs strong Q1 scripts. Good news is the Q2 scripts seem to be trending towards resumption of the 10% q/q type of growth we saw in Q2-Q3-Q4 of 2024. So that is a positive, but this is still basically a middling little company that either lost or fired their CCO, admitted in proxy docs that they only hit 70% of their own internal US sales goal in 2024, and so can’t be trusted much to ramp US sales beyond the modest 30-45% y/y range at the moment.
- Their R&D day on April 24th was VERY well done, imo. Impressive science. But all it really is, at the end of the day, is an unproven and unapproved drug candidate that won’t be meaningful until 2030 or beyond. Great for new patents and IF, and this is a huge IF for me, they can keep rolling out new ACLY next-gen inhibitor drug candidates, like kidney next, then they could build up value (again) as a new exciting future drug company.
- Right now, they are being priced as a GIA US drug company doing about 30-45% y/y in sales, but still at a level that is unprofitable on US sales alone.
- The sold the royalty rights to DSE to settle some debt. They get those rights back, likely around 2028 at current pace of DSE sales. 2028 is a long ways away though. It could be $200m/yr in pure profit when the spigot is turned back on. Great. What happens from now until then though?
- Otsuka may turn into a royalty beast of $100m+/yr by 2028. Sweet! What happens from now until then though?
- They may launch the triple combo pill in 2027 for US, which may also extend patent life (very key). So real selling won’t start until 2028. There is that number again…“2028”. What happens from now until then though?
So if they can survive 2025/2026/2027, you probably have an undervalued stock on your hands and a nice winner from here.
Worth a roll of the dice. Not worth a big allocation.
Barring a surprise firing of CEO (which would probably be a positive catalyst) I could see the stock stuck at $1 or less for years or fluctuating (again) like 2024 from $1-$3 up and down.
My advice is, if you have shares now, seriously considering reducing allocation if too large if/when stock price ever hits $1.50-2 again. If you ever see $3 again, depending on how much closer things are to all those good things in 2028, you may just want to sell it all or reduce to a very small lotto ticket at that point.
This was my new Elastic (ESTC). Kind of sucks.
Back to the drawing board.
I think the chaos of Trump and a weak underlying perpetually can-kicked economy will give me more options with other stocks this year that may not have as much high upside, but higher certainty of being a profitable investment.
all the best,
Dreamer
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Thanks for the update, Dreamer. I made my first trade of ESPR yesterday. Added 25% to the position and sold up 5.8%. If I never make a losing trade, I can get even by around… 2028 
Gives me something to do while otherwise just taking my monthly GBIL and TBIL dividends and dripping them into IBIT (that is, short duration treasury ETF into bitcoin ETF).
12% cash that I could put into GBIL at 4.5%.
KC
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*Better to edit message at the top… Sold those shares at $0.787. Bought at 9:41 p.m., placed a limit sell order, went to bed, order triggered at 11:02. Up 3.94%. *** I know I am picking up pennies in front of the steam roller. I think maybe I should sell half my position and reduce exposure rather than adding 25%.
Esperion (NASDAQ: ESPR) today announced that it has entered into a settlement agreement with Micro Labs USA, Inc. and its affiliate Micro Labs Limited (together, Micro Labs). This agreement resolves the patent litigation brought by Esperion against Micro Labs in response to Micro Labs’ Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) seeking approval to market a generic version of NEXLETOL prior to the expiration of the applicable patents.
I think there are still 8 more companies to settle.
I made another day trade. Made 2.5% on the extra 25% I added to trade. I might get even by the 2045 patent expiration.
5/13. Bought the trade shares back at $0.7568 to $0.7561. GLTA.
KC
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Might be the first stock to ever trade at $0, while bringing in $150m+ and being profitable for the year. Fascinating train wreck.