{{ A week of relying on a new class of family-size electric vehicle taught me a revealing lesson: A lot of us are all wrong in how we think about electric vehicles and charging. I know this logic well, because I’ve articulated it myself. }}
intercst
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How many hours for a full charge?
70 hours for 110 Volt plug, 12 hours for 220 volt. But the reporter found that since he drove less than 40 miles per day, the car was back to a 70% charge by the end of the week with only 110 Volt plug.
A 40 mile EV range would cover 98% of my driving. Does it makes sense to carry around a heavy, $12,000 battery if you only use it once or twice a year? Maybe not.
I still think that for at least the next 20 years, the sweet spot will be a plug-in hybrid with a 40-50 mile, all electric range.
intercst
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It might be the sweet spot for YOU, but statistics show that a very large percentage of people who buy PHEVs (Plug in hybrids) rarely or never plug them in. It’s not that amazing, Americans (and many others) tend to be very wasteful, and sometimes prefer to spend $1 to go about 10 miles (gasoline instead of plugging in) instead of spending $1 to go 25+ miles (plugging in each night so the next 25+ miles are all electric).
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Depends where you live. I pay 11 cents per Kwh in WA State, so I’m definitely plugging in my vehicle. In Massachusetts where the average rate is 32 cents per Kwh, it may not make much difference.
You can’t blame the vehicle for people not plugging them in and using them efficiently. Lots of folks driving huge pickup trucks with hospital clean cargo beds.
As the Toyota CEO has said, “I can build 6 plug-in hybrids or 90 regular hybrids with the battery from one EV”. See the (“1:6:90 rule”)
intercst
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The 1:6:90 rule only works if batteries are the limiting factor for EV production. That is rapidly becoming not the case. China now has an excess of EV batteries with a consequent sharp decline in battery prices. As a result of its 1:6:90 strategy Toyota does not have a competitive BEV to sell and so is rapidly becoming irrelevant in the world’s largest auto market.
Toyota is losing out as the world’s largest auto market accelerates its shift to EVs. The Japanese automaker informed dealers that it plans to cut production in China with one of its joint ventures.
Toyota is being squeezed out of China as the shift to EVs heats up
From a global perspective the 1:6:90 rule looks like a classic case of putting short-term profits ahead of long-term competitiveness.
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Nobody is blaming the vehicle, just stating the fact that as an overall efficiency improvement across “society”, it works a lot worse than advertised. Like a lot of other things.
This is completely true. HOWEVER, over the 20+ year life of that ICE hybrid vehicle (first 3-8 years with first US owner, next 5-10 years with second US owner, maybe even a third US owner, and then often followed by an owner in another [poorer] country for an indeterminate amount of time) that ICE hybrid will be burning fossil fuels ALL the time. Even if technology improves efficiency (either in vehicles or at power plants), that vehicle will still burn the same amount of fossil fuel forever.
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I don’t agree with that, actually. I think we are near a tipping point where the EV makes sense and the PHEV no longer does. Motor Trend agrees, actually:
To me the PHEV combines the worst part of ICE (maintenance expenses, use of fossil fuels), made worse by a more complicated drive train, with little benefit from the EV side. It’s why my purchase 3 weeks ago was an EV.
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And in the end, it may simply come down to pricing: if the EV is as cheap (or nearly so) as a PHEV, then the EV likely wins.
Pete
I agree. Solid State battery technology has been developed with ranges of 500 to 900 mile ranges. What has to happen now is to develop the means of mass production which will lower the cost of those batteries.
Do we have any evidence that solid state batteries are cheaper? We have heard that their specs are better…but do improved specs come with higher costs at mass production…or will they be cheaper.
And who really needs a 900 mile battery? What is the use case?
Mike
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Someone who doesn’t have a home charger and wants to drive to a Supercharger as infrequently as possible?
Not to mention the higher battery requirement of trucks.
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Today in the West… (my in-laws cannot go over Donner to come out West, have to use I-50, instead) It will be interesting to find out the cause of the fire, too heavy loaded, too much power needed for the grades over Donner, altitude, etc…???
(on the post topic, we opted to go for the RAV4 Hybrid, rather than an EV because of the range, ~500+/fillup, and the dual motor+ICE, planetary technology, no clutches, wear issues, other than the normal tires, brakes…)
They aren’t now. But I await to see what the wizards of manufacturing can do. Consumers likely would be will to pay somewhat more for the extended range.
Hard to imagine the market for people who can’t afford a home with a charger but can afford a car with a 900 mile battery is very many people. In fact, so few that it will never be a mass market car.
Doubtful that trucks will have a 900 mile battery either. Sure they will have large kw-hr batteries, but why be able to drive for 14 hours without a stop for even a 30 min recharge?
Mike
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Ev will be less expensive than phev. Fewer parts and less maintenance
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Trucking companies with OTR self-driving semis would buy it if either a recharge was reasonably quick or the batteries could be readily swapped out and recharged separately. Amazon, Walmart, Target, maybe USPS (?), UPS, Pepsi/Coke, etc would all use them because they all use OTR trucks to move large volumes of products Over relatively long distances all the time.
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Even local trucking distributions to/from busy warehouses could benefit from having to charge fewer times.
DB2
What about an apartment dweller with management that won’t/can’t install a charger in the parking area?
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Point not being that a truck needs a 900 mile battery, but that the battery which will take a car 900 miles will power a truck for more miles than current batteries.
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