EVs: About that 16%

EV Ownership Ticks Up, but Fewer Nonowners Want to Buy One

Seven percent of Americans, up from 4% a year ago, report that they own an electric vehicle. That increase is matched by an equal decline in the percentage saying they are seriously considering buying one, from 12% to 9%.

Meanwhile, fewer Americans – 35%, down from 43% in 2023 – say they might consider buying an EV in the future. Thus, even as some people have moved ahead with their intent to buy an EV in the past year, public demand for the cars has contracted.

Overall, less than half of adults, 44%, now say they are either seriously considering or might consider buying an EV in the future, down from 55% in 2023, while the proportion not intending to buy one has increased from 41% to 48%.



When people are commenting or articles are written and they mention EV’s; would those mentions include Hybrids or is it just plug-in battery EV’s?
I don’t want to feel left out.



I believe they are thinking/talking about plug-ins. Thus the articles you read where EV sales have slowed but hybrid sales have jumped.



Perhaps the lack of demand for EVs will solve the China EV overproduction problem Yellen is complaining about to China. That’s assuming EV is left to economic supply and demand function and not legislatively imposed by national governments.

It seems that Chinese EVs are piling up in EU ports.
“Chinese EV makers are using ports like car parks,” said one car supply chain manager.

Some Chinese brand EVs had been sitting in European ports for up to 18 months, while some ports had asked importers to provide proof of onward transport, according to industry executives. One car logistics expert said many of the unloaded vehicles were simply staying in the ports until they were sold to distributors or end users.

The clogging up of car terminals comes as many of China’s carmakers, such as BYD, Great Wall, Chery and SAIC, are planning an export push to Europe, both to keep their factories in China running and to capitalise on the region’s appetite for electric cars.
Perhaps EU ports should be imposing storage fees?

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They most certainly are being charged either demurrage or storage fees. You can’t occupy any port space indefinitely for free.

Otherwise, everyone would simply use them to warehouse their goods.


Funny, the rest of the US auto market is doing fine so far, despite the high interest rates affecting most other big ticket purchases

Jan-Mar '24 Total Automotive sales volume grew 5.1%, of which

  • Passenger cars +1.3%
  • Light trucks +6.1%

So Tesla’s 13.3% decline for the quarter drove its market share down 0.8pts

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The seems to be a similar pattern in the UK.

Electric car market share shrinks
Some 15% of new cars registered in March were pure electrics, down from 16% during the same period last year, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said.

The industry body said the “tough economic backdrop” of low growth, weak consumer confidence and high interest rates was making it harder for drivers to “invest in these new technologies”…

Overall, the SMMT’s figures, published on Thursday, said the UK car market grew for the 20th consecutive month in March, with a 10.4% rise in registrations.


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The US auto market is doing “fine” because OEMs are dropping prices.

This isn’t a reaction against EV technology. It is a reaction against EV prices. The OEMs have built up a big inventory of unsold ICE cars and are now trying to sell them at a discount. February 2024 inventory was the highest since 2020.

Tesla EVs recently lost US market share because the great majority of ICE/hybrids are dropping in price. That’s why the $25K Tesla or Chinese competition is so important for EV adoption.

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Some speculation that plans may have changed.

Apr 5, 2024
Tesla Has Reportedly Canceled Its $25,000 Car.

April 7, 2024


This slump is because of Tesla’s actions in lowering prices. The public response is to wait for still lower prices. The public is turning marginally uncommitted. It does not mean anything.

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That is some to do with it. I think there are many things going on, each adding on top of the other.

  1. Tesla prices going down
  2. Interest rates going up
  3. NACS adoption making people wait and not buy the CCS version (would be me)
  4. Uneasiness about EV resale value (also me, so considering a lease instead)
  5. The constant news of a solid state battery mere years away (why buy Li today?)
  6. This whole hydrogen issue mess (sorry, its a mess, and a diversion)

So I count myself in on 3 of the above as to why I’m not buying my EV this year. So, wait a bit because prices might keep dropping. Wait a bit, because the Fed might drop rates. Wait a bit because I don’t want the out-dated CCS connector. Wait a bit and see what is happening with residual values. Maybe even wait a bit for a better battery. And hydrogen? Sorry, the appeal of a simple electric motor and no transmission is a big draw for me. And a hydrogen combustion engine still has lots of moving, wearing parts, oil changes, a transmission, etc. Hydrogen ICE is a stupid idea.


Yes all of those things are factors.

The central thing with the stats provided by Bob are people interested in EV? The marginal decline was not in buyers but people thinking about it.

I think folks are going to have to get over their resale value expectations. Cars are increasingly being valued more like computers in that what matters is the technology rather than the mechanics. Technology changes rapidly and so goes obsolete rapidly.

Americans hold on to their cars for 8 years on average. How much value does a computer or cell phone retain after 8 years?

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Man, remember the days when people on this board (not necessarily you) were predicting that Teslas would actually appreciate in value?


Those expectations were/might have been driven by Elon-Pied Piper of EVs.

Back in 2019, Elon Musk made an astonishing claim for Tesla vehicles. Tesla cars, he said, would go up in value, not down, after purchase.

The reason for that is Tesla’s full self-driving capability that, Musk has said, requires only some additional software updates and regulatory approval before Tesla vehicles on the road today will become fully independent. He repeated this claim as recently as June 2023.

“You can think of every car we sell or produce that has full autonomy capability as something that in the future may be worth five times what it is today,” he said in the company’s third quarter, 2023, earnings call.

And not only would the price of a used Tesla go up, but Musk also predicted a world in which Tesla’s driver assistance suite, which the company calls “Full Self-Driving” despite not fully self-driving the vehicle, would on its own be worth $100,000.

Elon’s crystal ball seemed to missed the fact that the cost of a new EV would be declining in the future due to competition and production innovation that would cut costs & along with future battery development technology cutting cost also.


What was Elon smoking? I will avoid that stuff.

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Elon is a combination of a brilliant visionary engineer, brutally eratically inspirational effective manager, political jabberwocky, and P.T. Barnum huckster.

d fb


Reminds me of the circus fire in Connecticut about 70 years ago.

What could go wrong?

The auto industry is cyclical, you all expect this to stay the same but in two years everyone will be stating something different. You don’t buy a commodity product when everyone is happy, but when they are in a deep glum, like now.


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I believe that they did increase in value (OTA updates generally made them better), but not in price.

So, everybody’s right.