So should we believe Bloomberg Intelligence or the McKinsey survey described in this thread: Switching back to ICE
Beats me. Probably have to pay to get the raw data for either to do a real comparison. Just an example showing that surveys have to be looked at skeptically.
One difference is that Bloomberg looked at BEV satisfaction. McKinsey appears to have lumped BEVs with PHEVs (plug-in hybrids). There are other surveys suggesting that owners are much less satisfied with PHEVs than BEVs.
…this year’s study finds that owners of PHEVs are, on the whole, much less satisfied with their vehicle than are owners of BEVs. Overall satisfaction with PHEVs is 629, while mass market BEVs (718) and premium BEVs (750) score much higher. “Plug-in hybrids may not be the simple solution to solving early issues with full battery electric vehicles,” …” https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2024-us-electric-vehicle-experience-evx-ownership-study#:\
We considered a Mazda PHEV. Really liked the car but I now consider the PHEV the worst of both worlds.
We got a Hybrid CR-V instead. Wife not quite ready for the full EV route. I am, and hope to get one within the next 12 months. (Prologue and ZDX are my current favs).
We went for the Toyota RAV4 Hybrid, got lucky and grabbed a cancelled order, just what color, trim we needed… And the RAV4 was a few inches shorter than the CR-V, had both to check for fit in our modified garage, SIL leases the CR-V, so it worked out… The sun/planetary gearing, no clutches, of the RAV4 added to it’s attractiveness… It’s been great, just a lot of learning to do, more buttons than any previous vehicle, but the manual, forums have lots of info… Mileage, about 40 overall, meanwhile my F150, 5/4L ICE, is dirty, dusty, has cobwebs all over it…
I believe it was done by the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility. Their mission statement:
"We recognize that mobility must be more sustainable, smarter, safer, less expensive, and more convenient for everyone. Our focus is on easing the current and forthcoming shifts this inflection entails while identifying the tremendous opportunities being created by it.”
You and others here seem to be ignoring the 8457 car buyers in the Dua study, 35% of whom actually did buy an ICE vehicle (“discontinuance”). No survey needed.
The Dua study is actually not that far off from the McKinsey survey.
The 35% in the discontinuance group is made up of PHEV and BEV owners. There is much more discontent in the PHEV subgroup. I broke down the numbers.
Of the 8457 who bought replacement cars, 4803 previously owned PHEVs and 3654 owned BEVs.
PHEV owners: 44% 2114/4803 bought an ICE
BEV owners: 22% 819/3654 bought an ICE
So 78% of BEV owners who had to replace their BEV did so with another BEV. That’s not bad.
In addition, the Dua study ranged from 2017-2022. If you look at this time course, discontinuance was on a declining trend by 2022, not surprising given how much BEVs were improving and their prices declining.
If this decline continued into 2024 and if once again the majority of EV discontinuance was from PHEV owners, the 93% BEV retention figure cited by McKinsey in 2024 is plausible.
I think the data is consistently showing that people really don’t like plug-in hybrids but remain very loyal to full battery electric vehicles. Lumping the two categories together is misleading.
Not sure I understand. If they are “recidivists” (don’t think that is the right word) from EVs what else could they switch to? Fuel cells?
The question of whether the proportion of BEV owners switching to ICEs (which in the Dua study is hybrid + only gas) is 40% or 7% determines whether the slowing of EV adoption is significant or just a rounding error. Looks more like the latter.
What I find interesting is that it has become common place now to consider Hybrids as ICEs rather than EVs. This wasn’t the case a few years ago and reflects the rapidity to which the automotive industry is being electrified. In this regard, the traditional all gas ICEs have already lost.
When the Prius was first introduced, hybrids were seen as a necessary transition before BEV adoption. Well, the transition in America is now in full force with hybrids beginning to dominate. However, the rapid improvements in BEVs (far faster than anyone imagined) means the transition will likely be pretty short as seen by many now considering hybrids to be ICEs that also should be replaced.
As a Tesla investor I have a different point of view, as long as non Tesla EV owners are the ones switching back to ICE they are doing Tesla a favor, accelerating the demise of the competition.
Excellent point!
Hybrids would have had a better future if the architecture had followed the diesel electric locomotive model, a diesel generator, batteries, and all electric powertrain. I suppose that would have been too radical for ICE incumbents.
I looks more to me as though the “7%” survey is wrong. I say that because there have been multiple surveys over the past few years, and they all show results between 20% and 50% except for this one. And some of those other surveys are based on actual registration changes , not touchy-feeling questions about “what would your do if…” because those are always fraught.
(Story notes that the number of EV owners returning to gas has declined from 65% to 48%. Big whoop.)
Your hopeless optimism and unwillingness to confront the realities of the market is doing more to harm EV adoption than help it.
When the Prius was first introduced, hybrids were seen as a necessary transition before BEV adoption.
The Prius was introduced in 1997. EVs barely even a consideration at that time, there had been no successes and one crushing failure by GM. Prius was introduced because then, as now, it offered far greater mileage than ICE alone, and had no “range anxiety” issues.
I view hybrids and plug-in hybrids as ‘gateway drugs’ so if a significant portion of those owners aren’t having a good experience then they will be slow/reluctant to move on to battery EVs.
I always wondered the same thing. Seems far simpler. Chevrolet did that with the Volt but I think the big issue there was how small the gas engine was, meaning once the battery drained the gas motor could only supply so many new electrons and performance dropped noticeably.
I suspect the problem is/was battery cost. It may be possible now to created a hybrid with a large enough battery for 200+ mile range and a small gas generator extend charging when needed. But given the rapid improvements in BEV range, there may not be a market for that.
The inability of OEMs to produce a competitive and profitable BEV means they are extremely biased toward pushing ICEs to generate revenue for as long as possible. That’s where most of the advertising dollar is going. The big money wants people to keep buying gas cars. Perhaps you are the one being gullible.
It is apparent that you don’t look at your links with a critical eye. I’ll just take the first one (PowerNation) for example. It describes S&P Global research to note that the BEV loyalty problem stems mostly from folks like you who didn’t buy a Tesla.
On one hand, the data suggests that 3 out of 4 Luxury EV households will stay electric. But with a majority of them coming from loyal Tesla customers, the percentage of loyal non-Tesla EV owners sees a steep drop.
Your second link from Anthropocene makes the following statement about what it calls an electric vehicle:
Research has shown, in fact, that about a fifth of those who buy or lease a hybrid or battery-electric vehicle end up switching back to gasoline-powered cars on their next purchase.
So are people switching to ICEs from hybrids or BEVs? Who knows? Is there any point in going on?
If you don’t read your own links you are kind of wasting everyone’s time.
Multiple outlets have pointed out Tesla’s remarkable brand loyalty that surpasses even Toyota or the elite luxury car makers. Ironically, the same S&P Global noted in your first link has awarded Tesla:
OEMs make really good ICEs. To compete long-term, one has to make a BEV that performs at least as well and overcomes range anxiety (at least for people willing to learn how to use the software, unlike some folks in GA). Tesla is the only company selling cars in America currently capable of doing that.
I tried not to use links polluted with either of the two most recent surveys. That necessarily put them back into the days when there were fewer competitors for Tesla, which is why I chose those links. The more recent ones, with the exception of the outlier “intention” one comport with the same relative conclusion.
Sure, because up until now it has been the only brand widely available. That number will come down, it’s inevitable. Hard to imagine that AOL was the king of the hill - until other choices came along. Also MySpace, Sears, and even General Motors. Tesla’s market share is declining, albeit slowly, heck their total sales are declining even as EV sales increase. (I’m not celebrating that, I have great respect for what they have done.) It’s just that without some kind of “lock-in” (middleware, “Prime”, railroad kickbacks) holding an 80-90% share in a segment is almost impossible.
You sure about that? Hyundai, Kia, Ford, GM, Rivian, Nissan, BYD, BMW are all in the game now, and there are others. The playfield has changed. Some of these entrants have even better range. Some are less expensive, or more expensive and with style or features that Tesla doesn’t offer. Some are in market segments where Tesla doesn’t have an entry. Two years from now I expect things will be quite different indeed.
Let me know when that happens because it sure isn’t trending that way. Tesla loyalty has gone up since 2020 even as its market share has declined because of more competition.
Note that BEV loyalty at the high end is improving generally. That’s an indication that the electrics are becoming more competitive with ICEs.
Pretty sure.
…overall loyalty by fuel type for EVs among luxury and mainstream brands collectively has soared in the past three years, according to S&P Global Mobility registration data. But the data also tells a sobering story: Nearly half of those non-Tesla EV households that have acquired a new electric vehicle still purchase an internal combustion vehicle the next time around. https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/does-the-auto-industry-have-an-ev-loyalty-problem.html
In other words, the soaring loyalty for electric drivetrains is being driven primarily by Tesla. The Model Y was introduced in 2020 and became the best selling car in about 2022. That’s why BEV loyalty increased during that time frame. I believe the same will happen as the Model 3 Highland ramps up and then the new Model Y Juniper in 2025 along with the less expensive models hinted at by Musk. Meanwhile the OEMs are slowing their BEV roll outs.
