In the USA, electric vehicles (EV) are becoming a larger percentage of new vehicle sales each year.
In the USA, internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) continue to be the largest percentage of new vehicle sales for the time being.
In the USA, hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrids (Hybrid) are available from a shrinking number of manufacturers, but Toyota persists, with 18 hybrid models offered this year (according to Bob Carter, EVP of Sales, this morning on CNBC).
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WHAT WILL BE THE RANK OF US NEW VEHICLE SALES BY FUEL TYPE IN 2030?
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40% of all vehicles sold are pick up trucks. By 2030 I believe 80% of that 40%, which is to say that 32% of all vehicles sold will be EV trucks. I think range anxiety is a little less with trucks. The cost Tipping point is here now.
In the USA, hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrids (Hybrid) are available from a shrinking number of manufacturers, but Toyota persists, with 18 hybrid models offered this year (according to Bob Carter, EVP of Sales, this morning on CNBC).
Owned Toyota since 2006 and 2021. Best vehicles I’ve owned ever. (They are non EV nor hybrid.)
Was GM thru and thru, including Cad. Made one excursion to Mercedes Benz.
Toyota tops them all.
My top three vehicle buying criteria are reliability, reliability, and RELIABILITY.
For reference: Looking thru the annual (April) Automobile issue of Consumers Reports, looking at all the Toyotas, model after model after model, are >90% all red dots. (Top ratings)
We’d be money way ahead if we had seen the light before the last Cad in 1993.
(Lexus, made by Toyota, has similar records. Very fine vehicle. We didn’t see the need for the much higher selling price. Stayed Toyota.)
40% of all vehicles sold are pick up trucks. By 2030 I believe 80% of that 40%, which is to say that 32% of all vehicles sold will be EV trucks. I think range anxiety is a little less with trucks. The cost Tipping point is here now.
I wonder whether Ford will experience increased demand for its Hybrid Pickup Trucks as fuel prices increase and the Maverick compact pickup attracts attention with its incredibly low price.
The new Maverick Hybrid has finally arrived - a $20K-$25K basic, highly functional vehicle - receiving rave reviews by purchasers who have finally taken delivery of the $19,999 base model.
Owned Toyota since 2006 and 2021. Best vehicles I’ve owned ever. (They are non EV nor hybrid.)
We still own two Toyotas, a 2004 Sienna that looks about 3 years old, and a 2013 Camry that we bought off a lease in 2016 and also going strong. Traded in a very low mileage Ford station wagon for the Sienna, which given it’s tragically bad transmission, the dealership regretted taking in trade. We had gone back to that same dealership in 2010, and that regretted trade was still talked about by our sales guy. Bought a Hyundai that year, also a great buy, because DH wrecked our Toyota Echo. Hyundai has about 250K miles and now owned by Youngest.
We travel a lot, and the range for electric is still just too low for us, but a hybrid makes sense to us. That said, when we looked at them in 2016, I hated the lack of a spare tire in the hybrids, though it doesn’t look as though many give more than a can of fix a flat with a car anymore.
IP,
not looking forward to replacing either vehicle
" That said, when we looked at them in 2016, I hated the lack of a spare tire in the hybrids, though it doesn’t look as though many give more than a can of fix a flat with a car anymore."
Bought a 2016 Chevy Malibu…came with no spare tire but a place to put one. Standard model came with a fix a flat can of gunk, and a tire inflator. Useless most of the time. Still have it…never used…
Bought a donut tire/wheel and tire jack. (was $250 extra). Saved me a few times. Nail in side wall twice in tire in 135,000 miles of driving around the country. Not near home, either. Called AAA and they put the donut on the car. Had to buy new tire as had nail right at edge of tire and could not fix, both times. Donut good for at least 1000 miles total driving - but slower speed. If no spare tire, they haul your car somewhere on a flatbed truck, and good luck getting a new tire on a Sunday…you’ll spend your time at a motel where ever you got the flat tire. Maybe middle of nowhere, maybe 50 miles out of the way…
40% of all vehicles sold are pick up trucks. By 2030 I believe 80% of that 40%, which is to say that 32% of all vehicles sold will be EV trucks. I think range anxiety is a little less with trucks. The cost Tipping point is here now.
I’m sure EV pickup will be a hit with the soccer moms and dads in suburban US. Since I communicate frequently with rural US, especially farmers and blue collar people, I know their attitude towards EVs and it’s not a good one.
My 2017 Rav4 Hybrid came with a donut spare and it is under the cargo space inside the car. Mercedes-Benz has just come out with a new plugin Hybrid EQ model so I wonder what their studies show?
Also how does $5.00+ a gallon gas figure into the calculations?
I had to vote Pants. I was actually looking for this option which was not listed:
Hybrid, ICE, EV
I agree with a previous poster on this board who suggested that the migration from ICE → EV will happen through Hybrid. This seems to make the most sense to me. But what do I know? I voted Pants!!
I agree with a previous poster on this board who suggested that the migration from ICE → EV will happen through Hybrid.
Since pickups are 40% of sales…Does anyone make a hybrid pickup? Oh wait there are several. Market share??? Too small to matter I guess.
I think it is likely that the Ford Lightning and Tesla Cybertruck will both be hits next year and help drive EV adoption to a portion of the market that currently doesn’t know or care about any EV.
Reasoning: range doesn’t matter a whole lot to many in this group…even though the range will be 230 - 300 miles (Ford) and 250, 300 and 500 (Tesla); but the physical configuration options will have lots of choices. Throw in Rivian (300 miles) with even more choices.
Tesla is going to increase capacity by 50%/yr for at least a few more years. They say that is what they will get this year just from the 2 existing factories…and they have 2 more coming on line this year…so in 3-4 years they could be over 3M cars/year. Next they’ll have a $25K EV (not announced) in a few years – they should be able to ship it before 2030 (lol).
Tesla is going to increase capacity by 50%/yr for at least a few more years. They say that is what they will get this year just from the 2 existing factories…and they have 2 more coming on line this year…so in 3-4 years they could be over 3M cars/year. Next they’ll have a $25K EV (not announced) in a few years – they should be able to ship it before 2030 (lol).
Mike
Sounds great.
I will hold my collective breath in anticipation of these developments.
About 130,000 electric cars are being sold each week across the world, about the same number as were sold in all of 2012. In the world of clean energy, few areas are as dynamic as the electric car market, as our recent commentary highlights. Growth has been particularly impressive over the last three years, even as the pandemic shrank the global market for conventional cars and as manufacturers started grappling with supply chain bottlenecks.
In 2019, 2.2 million electric cars were sold, representing just 2.5% of global car sales. In 2021, electric car sales more than doubled from the previous year to 6.6 million, representing close to 9% of the market. China accounts for more than half of all electric cars sold, but there’s also strong growth in Europe and the United States. By contrast, the market for electric cars is barely growing in Brazil, India, Indonesia and Japan.
Also how does $5.00+ a gallon gas figure into the calculations?
The price of gas is cyclical. I remember shortly after we bought our AWD Sienna, which gets 16mpg, the price of gasoline spiked up to $4.50/gallon. I scolded myself for the purchase of that soccer mom mobile. A year later it was way down an has yet to come back up to that high high price. We bought in 2004. For about a decade we have paid in the low $2’s for gas. It has recently spiked up to the low $3’s. $3.15 in fact. I am less than worried.
IP,
figuring she has another decade of throwing the kayaks into the back of the Sienna before there becomes a need to replace it
I agree with a previous poster on this board who suggested that the migration from ICE → EV will happen through Hybrid. This seems to make the most sense to me. But what do I know? I voted Pants!!
Ditto, except I simply chose not to vote. Was a biased poll.
After much thought, EVs will win the race, I just don’t know when it will happen.
About farmers, they did ditch oxen for tractors… They even upgraded to laser guided machinery. This is how technology adoption works, the market, in its wisdom, picks a winner apparently at random, the reason to wait for the Crossing of the Chasm. It’s hard to outguess random!
The old saw about building a better mousetrap might apply to commodities but not to technology. Our Commodore, inadvertently, (in broken Spanish) said, “May the first yacht win!”
I would love to hear more about this should you wish to share.
I’m not sure what else I can share. I belong to some hunting and fishing forums. The membership is predominately rural. Occupations are more likely farmer, factory worker, trades employee or owner, or LEO. It seems almost every single one owns a pickup. Some reasons include towing boats or trailers, transporting hunting dogs, carrying hunting equipment, or transporting firewood. EV discussions come up from time to time. Most of them say they will never buy. The few that will buy or have bought are the professionals living in the suburbs.