Greggs was back at 1515-1520p on Friday. I have picked some up again. (The last lot was sold at 1670-1720p).
A 4.6% dividend, twice covered, good record of growth, with no withholding tax, and occasional special dividends…
It’s very hard to say no to, even if earnings are likely to decline 10-15% this year.
It is quite difficult to find a company with the following qualities:
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immune to Trump tantrums or tariffs.
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essentially no debt.
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scaling up without debt or rights issues.
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‘inflation for free’, i.e., it does not take special effort to raise prices in line with inflation while maintaining sales
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somewhat immune to recessions, might even benefit from them.
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not affected by AI (directly in real life, or via the bubble).
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pays ordinary people working there fairly for their work, profit sharing.
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provides a good service/product to the lower half of the K-shaped economy.
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considerable charity involvement in feeding the poor (homeless and at schools).
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pays a good dividend every year and pays a fantastic dividend some years, and has a big focus on the dividend.
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would happily eat there myself any time I’m passing, doesn’t feel like a luxury.
It’s not risk free; as Jim noted food companies aren’t an appealing sector. Ozempic is an issue. But they seem to have some interesting ideas in that regard. Excessive growth might be an issue, hopefully they won’t chase growth at any cost. The ‘Gregg’s Pub’ concept has achieved an amazing amount of marketing/press coverage for not much effort or expense, but I don’t think it will be scalable or especially profitable. Still, I’ve been wrong before.
TRS