2025 - (-4%) YTD
2024 - 53%
2023 - 41%
2022 - (-65%)
2021 – 21%
2020 - 140% (found Saul’s board in the summer of 2020)
2019 - 51%
Portfolio Breakdown
TMDX - 15%
SARK - 10%
APP - 9%
UBER - 7%
FOUR - 7%
NU - 6%
AMZN - 5%
MELI - 5%
GLD - 5%
ASPN - 4%
HOOD - 4%
RDDT - 4%
ALAB - 3%
ONON - 2%
cash - 14%
YTD performance:
TMDX - 5%
SARK - (-1%)
APP - 2%
UBER - 20%
FOUR - (-20%)
NU - 7%
AMZN - (-7%)
MELI - 24%
GLD - 13%
ASPN - (-42%)
HOOD - 20%
RDDT - (-26%)
ALAB - (-47%)
ONON - (-13%)
Summary: Lots of Volatility this year - I was up 14% on Feb 18th, down 11% at one point, now down 4%. Due to uncertainty of trade policy & other risks I see, I’ve decided to hedge my Portfolio. I started the year with 10% cash, now it’s up to 14%. Also bought 5% GLD, 10% SARK (2x Inverse AARK), and increased my AMZN to 5%. I may add little more cash going into Q2.
The Portfolio
TMDX - 15%
It was unfortunate that TMDX had a couple quarter slow down last year after years of stellar performance. I trusted management that the slowdown was temporary and averaged down. Things are looking good. QoQ growth accelerated 12% and it looks like it could grow 15-20% QoQ in the next print. The beauty of this stock is the daily flights are a very reliable proxy for revenue, so you sleep well at night knowing what is going on. There are very few stocks out there with this kind of visibility. Based on the flight date we are likely looking at, I expect at least a 20% beat for Q1. I’m hoping for a FY guide raise to 25-30% and a short squeeze but we’ll see how it all plays out. Some investors may be scared to get back in after the slowdown we saw last year, hopefully the Q1 report leaves no doubt the company is back on track. Another good thing is organ donorship isn’t tied to trade policy or recession risks.
SARK - 10%
No comment
APP - 10%
The short seller attack looks like nonsense and the e-commerce pilot appears to be a hit so far. I’m glad I was disciplined and trimmed a lot on the 700% run-up. The inevitable 50% haircut was to be expected but it is making a solid bounce back. NTM EV/EBITDA is 31 vs Fwd 2-Yr EBITDA CAGR 36.4%. The stock is not cheap, even with the pull-back, but given the expanding margins and execution, I’m hopeful there is decent upside.
UBER - 7%
I think the robo-taxi threat is several years off and either way Uber is likely to be the demand aggregator. It is nice they have partnerships with Waymo in some cities, but was concerning that Waymo went to Miami without Uber. Now that Cruz is out of the game, it becomes more critical that Uber and Waymo work well together. Uber One continues to shine and Uber has been very successful adding new partners and verticals. I really like the valuation, especially in what could be a rocky year for stocks. NTM EV/EBITDA is 19 vs Fwd 2-Yr EBITDA CAGR 30%.
FOUR - 6%
Payments is a highly competitive space but FOUR has proven that it can successfully execute it’s M&A strategy to continue to add value. Nice to see they now have a bigger footprint in Europe after the Global Blue acquisition. Also, the valuation is very attractive. NTM EV/EBITDA is 10 vs Fwd 2-Yr EBITDA CAGR 22% Too bad Jared left to go run NASA but I’m hopeful the company can continue to execute.
NU - 6%
NU has great fundamentals and continues to add customers at a rapid pace. It will never trade at a high valuation due to the economic and political risks of the region, but I think it’s a winner. I’ll never make it a double-digit position but it grew customers 22% last year and trades at a very cheap valuation. Fwd 2-Yr Rev. CAGR 28% and trades at only a P/S of 3.7.
AMZN - 5%
This is a lower beta stock that is nice to have to balance out some of the higher beta names in my Portfolio. I think it will do well because of AWS taking advantage of the AI wave. On top of that margins should continue to expand on other fronts due to more automation in the warehouses and AI efficiencies.
MELI - 5%
The Amazon/Paypal of Latin America continues to chug along. Given the low penetration rates in the region, reasonable valuation, and proven leadership, I expect this stock to continue to do well.
GLD - 5%
No comment
ASPN - 4%
This stock has been a disaster. Its largest customer, GM, built up too much inventory so it is having a major slowdown. Would have been nice if management had mentioned that in the previous earnings call. However, GM is still forecasting 60% growth in EV/hybrids this year, and the stock is too cheap to sell. The investment thesis is still intact and with the huge brand hit Tesla is taking, I think GM will take advantage.
HOOD - 4%
Robinhood is a beast that just keeps luring customers in with cash rewards for transfers, IRA matches, 24-hour trading, and even March Madness betting. They are keeping up with the times with its new trading Platform, Robinhood Legend. It might be a rocky road this year with all the crypto madness and uncertainty in the markets.
RDDT - 4%
After the big haircut, this stock is definitely a buy right now. NTM EV/EBITDA is 35 vs Fwd 2-Yr EBITDA CAGR 74%. I’ve noticed myself spending more and more time on Reddit the past few years and with AI enhancements and international opportunities it looks like a good one. As Reddit works to better monetize its platform, revenue and usage are soaring. Daily active unique users shot up 39% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 101.7 million, and revenue surged 71% to $427.7 million.
ALAB - 3%
I built my position recently as it came tumbling down. It should be able to take advantage of the massive hyperscaler spend on data centers. I’m not a technical expert on re-timers, etc but it looks like a solid pick and shovel play on the data center AI wave.
ONON - 2%
I love the shoes, the brand, and its partnerships. It will grow at least 30% this year although with the consumer possibly weakening, there could be some risk. It’s not a cheap stock but valuation isn’t too bad NTM EV/EBITDA is 25 vs Fwd 2-Yr EBITDA CAGR 32%