FoolishJeff MId-February Portfolio Update

2024 - 20.9% YTD
2023 - 41%
2022 - (-65%)
2021 – 21%
2020 - 140% (found Saul’s board in the summer of 2020)
2019 - 51%

Portfolio Breakdown

CELH - 13.2% (12.1%)
ELF - 12.8% (13.2%)
SMCI - 12.1% (7.2%)
NVDA - 11.8% (10.1%)
AXON - 9.7% (12.1%)
MNDY - 7.6% (8.5%)
IOT - 7.6% (9.9%)
TMDX - 6.5% (7.3%)
CRWD - 5.6% (5.5%)
ZSCALER - 5.0% (5.4%)
Cash - 8.1%

Watchlist - ASPN, MELI, SNOW,

YTD performance:

CELH - 7%
ELF - 26%
SMCI - 252%
NVDA - 51%
AXON - 8%
MNDY - 25%
IOT - 12%
TMDX - 17%
CRWD - 34%

Summary: It has been a nice February so far, even with Celsius up only 7% ytd, I’m doing ok. The AI revolution looks like it has real legs. Jensen Huang is now calling it a 2 trillion-dollar buildout and the biggest technological change since the Industrial revolution. This leaves a lot of room for multiple winners on the hardware and software side of things. Macro looks to be improving as well as the economy appears to be strong, and inflation is slowing. The market is anticipating some cuts later this year, which bodes well for our growth stocks.

What are some of Wall Street’s weaknesses? Chris Camillo points some of them out in his book, Laughing at Wall Street. Most hedge fund managers are middle-aged and live in Urban areas, so they often miss out on or are late to the party on female-oriented companies, market trends, low-income, middle American trends, etc. Much like Peter Lynch pointed out decades ago, this gives a huge advantage to the everyday investor if they are able to observe and investigate what is going on around them. Even better, if one uses an investor board to observe and confirm what is going on.

Also, I sold TTD. I get annoyed if I own more than 10 stocks, so it had to go. Also, I don’t have a great handle on the ad market - it’s hard to really track what is happening - so I’m ok letting it go. Looks like it reported well so congrats to all holders.

The Portfolio

CELH - 13.2%
The retail numbers look really strong so far, up 77% YoY so far. This bodes well that Celsius can crush analysts’ estimates of 37% growth. I also love the new partnerships and awards, including F1 Ferrari that I posted yesterday. Outside of SMCI, this stock might have the highest upside. At lunch today, I drove past my first Celsius ambassador, a decked-out pickup. Maybe it is a sign to buy more. :slight_smile:

ELF - 12.8%
Wow, ELF really crushed earnings with blow-out revenue of 85% growth YoY. I’m seeing more and more services now promoting the stock as well. It is nice when a lot of folks are seeing the light. Apparently, Gen Alpha is super into skincare and the market is even bigger than makeup so there is a lot of tailwinds. I’d like to see them add more retailers, as that is a risk to the company. I’m super excited about International and I think the progress in Italy is promising. They really know how to market with Social Media so watch out.

SMCI - 12.1%
I’ve trimmed this stock every-day this week just to try and keep it at or around 12%. I do think they have a narrow competitive advantage in the AI Server space with quick time to market through their partnerships, custom power supplies, motherboards, superior cooling, etc which leads to lower total cost of ownership. Hopefully Dell and HP don’t come to take their lunch. It’s a big enough pie they may be able to do well for the next several quarters and maybe beyond.

NVDA - 11.8%
In case you haven’t been paying attention, Nvidia is spear-heading the AI revolution and doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon. I expect blow-out earnings as they are still selling every chip they can make. It looks likely they can gain back some of the China market share with some lower end chips and reports from TSM are that capacity is improving. Jensen talked a lot recently about Sovereign AI and the need for every country to control its own destiny, which only adds fuel to the fire.

AXON - 9.7%
I didn’t see any big news, but I like the reasonable valuation and continuous innovation.

MNDY - 7.6%
Nice report. Guidance was a bit weak and FCF margins look like they are coming down, but I think it’s ok given all the hiring and investments for future growth. I’m ok keeping it a mid-size position.

IOT - 7.6%
I did trim some more given the high valuation and the possible distraction from the lawsuit. After I did that, I noticed Bert published an article saying the stock is a hold in his book due to valuation concerns. I’m fine with it being a mid-sized position for now. I see medium upside in the short to medium term.

TMDX - 6.5%
I didn’t see any news. I think it is one of the best smaller companies out there. They are like the opposite of SMCI - wide MOAT.

CRWD - 5.6% and ZSCALER - 5.0%
The next 10 years look amazing for cybersecurity. Someone has to protect from AI and the huge amounts of data that will pile up. I hope the reports can justify the valuations.