2024 - 4.1% YTD
2023 - 41%
2022 - (-65%)
2021 – 21%
2020 - 140% (found Saul’s board in the summer of 2020)
2019 - 51%
Portfolio Breakdown
ELF - 13.7% (14.8%)
AXON - 12.1% (14.1%)
CELH - 12.1% (14.0%)
NVDA - 10.1% (7.0%)
IOT - 9.9% (13.3%)
MNDY - 8.5% (7.8%)
TMDX - 7.3% (3.2%)
SMCI - 7.2% (New)
TTD - 6.4% (6.1%)
CRWD - 5.5% (4.8%)
ZSCALER - 5.4% (5.2%)
TSLA - SOLD (3.0%)
RELY - SOLD (3.8%)
Cash - 1.8%
Watchlist - MELI, SNOW, DDOG,
YTD performance:
ELF - 14%
AXON - (-1%)
CELH - (-16%)
NVDA - 28%
IOT - 0%
MNDY - 18%
TMDX - 12%
SMCI - 86%
TTD - (-3%)
CRWD - 19%
ZSCALER - 11%
Summary: It was a solid month for my Portfolio. Good runups by Elf, Nvdia, Mndy, SMCI, along with Crwd, and Zscaler kept the Portfolio moving forward. I sold Tesla a few days before earnings, it was clear the entire EV space is slowing, not just Tesla. I might be willing to buy back Tesla if the price drops enough. I think 2025 could be a great year for the company. Once wall street gets its head around the 2027-2030 opportunity for Optimus the stock will likely start to rocket in the next 6-18 months I also sold Rely as I had too many stocks and wanted to add to Nvdia. I read a lot about Chris Camillo this month. If you don’t know he’s the Dumb Money host who has been featured in Unknown Market Wizards (his audited returns are ridiculously good) and wrote a book in 2011 called “Laughing at Wallstreet.” His observational talents are truly inspiring, and I recommend a read to make anyone better - he’s big on Elf, Celsius, and Tesla so some great insights there. I’ve also been enjoying a lot of Jonah Lupton writeups/tweets. Shoutout to @PaulWBryant and Drowsy for some cool Twitter shows this month as well. Keep it up!
I’m looking to carry a little more cash in my portfolio, perhaps 5-10% so I might trim some of my highly valued stocks going into earnings. I’m trying to be a little better about trimming and entries, although I’m not looking to become a trader or too obsessive about the whole thing. I’m beginning to appreciate how nice it is to have some cash on-hand to take advantage of FUD, volatility, etc.
The Portfolio
Highest Confidence Positions
ELF - 13.7%
Based on Google Trends research and what I’ve read from other sources such as Chris Camillo, it looks like ELF likely had blow-out sales during the holiday season. Wall street apparently is alert to it and the stock has had a nice run-up the past few months. I trimmed a tiny bit this month to add to TMDX, NVDA, and SMCI but am happy to have a big position heading into earnings. They continue to impress with the campaigns and look to be becoming the dominant brand for Gen Z. Expectations are sky high with a forward PE of 57 but I feel they have a good shot to keep going higher.
AXON - 12.1%
I posted the release of a body camera for retail and healthcare workers. I also noticed on LinkedIn they are doing a promotional tour of Europe, which is encouraging, considering their low penetration there. Stock has been flat, and the price seems somewhat reasonable at a forward PE of 64.
CELH - 12.1%
The latest Nielsen data I posted looks good. Celsius sales jumped 105% over the 4-week period and 118% over the 12-week period. So, the tracked channel growth is slowing as expected but still triple digits. That along with the rollout to Canada and the announcement to go into the UK later in the year and I’d say they are firing on all cylinders. According to Chris Camillo, the Desantis Family still has about $1.5 billion dollars’ worth of stock to sell so we can likely expect to see some downward pressure on the price of the stock for a while. Forward PE is 55, I see lots of upside here.
IOT - 9.9%
I didn’t see a lot of news besides the lawsuit that was posted on the board. I did do some trimming. Expectations are sky-high with a forward PS of 16 it might be priced for perfection. Still, I can’t argue with last quarters record new customer adds so I continue to hold a high position.
NVDA - 10.1%
I added to Nvdia. All things look good as SuperMicro crushed, ASML reported a lot of new orders, and it looks like the hyper-scalers and Tesla are ordering a lot of chips. Jensen Huang is a genius no doubt. Even AMD didn’t report that well, so they don’t seem to be making much of a dent. Of course, there is some risk here with the China restrictions and supply chain issues, but I think it’s it worth it given the size of the AI data center wave.
MNDY - 8.5%
Not a lot of news - Wall Street seems to be catching on as the stock is getting more expensive. Forward PS is 11 but they are kicking down a lot of leverage.
TMDX - 7.3%
I added a lot to this position. I love the MOAT, mission, and leadership, the more I get to know the company. I haven’t owned a lot of medical plays, but this stock has all the potential of a big winner.
SMCI - 7.2%
I started a position a few weeks ago and then they reported blowout earnings. It’s a high-risk stock with low margins and what looks to be a narrow MOAT. However, they do have the liquid cooling, quick time to market, and some technology on their server boxes so I think it is worth the risk as long as they continue to have a close relationship with their big customers, especially Nvdia. Any sign of a split with Nvdia and I’ll sell at the drop of a hat, but I think they have a shot to continue to crush it for at least the next several quarters.
TTD - 6.4%
Google report looked good for the advertising market and the trade desk’s investments in AI should start to pay off this year. The Olympics, Election, and easy comps should help propel TTD this year to better places.
CRWD - 5.8% and ZSCALER - 5.4%
Both look really expensive and I might trim a bit before earnings.
The cybersecurity space is finally getting its due again in the eyes of Wallstreet and the multiples reflect that.