https://consortiumnews.com/2022/06/14/study-finds-fossil-fue… since Russia’s late-February invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing Western sanctions unleashed chaos in energy markets around the world, but policymakers have opted instead to expand fossil fuel infrastructure.
That’s according to researchers from Climate Action Tracker, which released a new report last week warning that this reaction threatens to lock in decades of heat-trapping emissions at a time when the window to slash greenhouse gas pollution and avert the most catastrophic effects of the climate crisis is rapidly closing.
“So far, governments have largely failed to seize their chance to rearrange their energy supplies away from fossil fuels,” states the report. “Instead, we are witnessing a global ‘gold rush’ for new fossil gas production, pipelines, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. This risks locking us into another high-carbon decade and keeping the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C limit out of reach.”
This so baffles me. How many oil shocks do we need to go through before it sinks in that oil is a problem?
You have partially answered your own question right here:
The pace of change in this space is one reason we have not bought an EV yet. (The other is that, honestly, we don’t need a new car just yet anyway). What would the resale value of today’s EV be in 4-5 years if new models can charge in 10 minutes?
Until there is affordable, reliable mass market competition to gasoline/diesel vehicles the majority of us will keep driving/buying ICE vehicles.
In my view, that will likely be measured in decades rather than years.
Yes, I know technologies are being rapidly developed, but there is such an overhang of ICE vehicles in existence, that the needed transition will take a very long time.
The pace of change in this space is one reason we have not bought an EV yet. (The other is that, honestly, we don’t need a new car just yet anyway). What would the resale value of today’s EV be in 4-5 years if new models can charge in 10 minutes?
IMO, there is a very low chance of getting that charging speed in a mass market car in the next 4-5 years.
First, there is just the issue of where would you charge it? Tesla has thousands of Superchargers in place. The EA chargers are much fewer but ramping up. The new proposal from POTUS will be providing money to build chargers every 50 miles on Interstates. This will be built out, somewhat in 4-5 years but not with chargers that can support 10 min charging.
Second, there is the technical issue of heat. The current fastest chargers are Tesla Superchargers v3 at 250 kw and EA at 350 kw. This means, if run at full power, in 10 minutes they could provide 42 kwh (Tesla) and 58 kwh (EA) today. A 250 - 300 mile car has a battery that holds about 70 - 80 kwh. So, in theory, it would take about 15 - 20 minutes to charge today. But, in practice, it takes 15-20 minutes to go from 20% - 80% because of the high heat being generated and a need to have the battery last many years/miles. Since it takes several years (even 5 or 10) to go from lab prototypes to full production we are not going to overcome these things in 4-5 years. No one will buy a car that- can charge in 10 minutes but needs a new battery after 25k or 50K miles (just to make up a number).
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Until there is affordable, reliable mass market competition to gasoline/diesel vehicles the majority of us will keep driving/buying ICE vehicles.
Tru dat!
In my view, that will likely be measured in decades rather than years.
Tru dat too!
Yes, I know technologies are being rapidly developed, but there is such an overhang of ICE vehicles in existence, that the needed transition will take a very long time.
Tru dat three!
When I decided I needed to quit driving we gave my SUV to the employee we’d sold our business to.
I’m thinking her son will be enjoying it for years if not decades.
Until there is affordable, reliable mass market competition to gasoline/diesel vehicles the majority of us will keep driving/buying ICE vehicles. In my view, that will likely be measured in decades rather than years. Yes, I know technologies are being rapidly developed, but there is such an overhang of ICE vehicles in existence, that the needed transition will take a very long time.
To get a better understanding of the transition, split it into two parts.
1- Car sales
From an investing point of view car sales is what matters, it’s what produces revenue, cash flow, and profits for automakers. This transition will be much faster than most skeptics think. 50% annual EV sales will probably be reached before 2030. At this time the hurdle is not demand but supply. There are long waiting lists for just about every model from every automaker. One additional problem they are experiencing is that inflation has caught many flat footed. Rivian made a mess of trying to raise prices on existing orders and had to back track. Ford just announced that the cost of making the Mach-E is now so high that it is no longer profitable to sell them at the current prices. From Rivian they learned that you cannot increase the price of the order on the waiting lists. Tesla managed the problem better, they have been increasing the price of new orders for at least a year. My feeling is not that Tesla foresaw inflation coming but simply realized from the length of their order books that they could increase prices. Even so Tesla apparently no longer quotes prices on the CyberTruck probably because they can’t be sure of what it will cost to make them.
2- Car park
Considering how long cars now last, fossil fuel cars will be around for a very long time. How long? I don’t know but considering that Winston Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, during WWI declared the necessity of converting to Royal Navy to petrol and a century later with diesel and nuclear propulsion, we are burning more coal than ever. Petrol will outlive us, our children and our grandchildren!
It will take at least five years before there is competition for “affordable” EVs. For now the market is the upper middle class and up. Inflation is not helping. Startups like Rivian have a capitalization problem. Incumbents have a debt problem. first mover advantage is very clear just now.
The above has huge implications for “The Competition in Coming!” meme. There are a lot more unexpected hurdles than the meme considered.
The Captain
uses the electric Metro and NatGas autocarros (buses)
Until there is affordable, reliable mass market competition to gasoline/diesel vehicles the majority of us will keep driving/buying ICE vehicles.
In my view, that will likely be measured in decades rather than years.
Yes, I know technologies are being rapidly developed, but there is such an overhang of ICE vehicles in existence, that the needed transition will take a very long time.
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Make sure you do not move into the following states:
California, Washington, New York and Massachusetts ban new ICE car sales in 2035:
In addition, 12 states are seeking to set a target date for the nationwide phase-out of ICE car sales. California, New Mexico, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maine, Hawaii, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington are all pushing for a nationwide ban of gasoline and diesel-powered light-duty vehicles starting in 2035.
Charge time is only important to people who drive a lot of the time far away from their home. Because most chaginhg is dome at home while you sleep.
I have an older model S and find the 265 mile range is more of a constraint on trips than the charging time. I can always dawdle a bit over my cup of coffee… Meanwhile the price of my Tesla as a used car seems to be actually increasing. 8 1/2 years old and it is priced higher than many nice new 2022 ICE cars
At some point in time the value of used ICE will collapse as people start to see them as very unfashionable, expensive to run dinosaurs. They will be like cassette tapes once DVD came out.
At some point in time the value of used ICE will collapse as people start to see them as very unfashionable, expensive to run dinosaurs. They will be like cassette tapes once DVD came out.
Hey! One of my ICE vehicles HAS a cassette player. Bet I would get a premium for that vehicle.
Washington State Passes Bill With Targeted 2030 ICE Vehicle Ban
In recent months, a number of countries around the world, including Japan, as well as two U.S. states – California and Massachusetts – have passed legislation banning the sale of new ICE-powered vehicles. Now, Washington state is one step closer to joining that group, as lawmakers passed a bill that aims to impose an ICE vehicle ban by the year 2030.
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker announced his state’s ICE ban as part of its new decarbonization road map, which aims to reduce emissions emitted from passenger cars and reach net-zero fossil fuel emissions by 2050. The road map also includes plans to expand the state’s public charging infrastructure. In addition … New Jersey has set a goal of eliminating gasoline-powered car sales by 2035 as well.
Washington State Passes Bill With Targeted 2030 ICE Vehicle Ban
https://grist.org/transportation/washington-electric-vehicle…
Governor Jay Inslee signed the broader “Move Ahead Washington” transportation package into law at the end of March, setting a deadline for all new cars registered in the state to be electric. It’s not a mandate, but the timeline is the most aggressive in the country.
I have zero idea why anyone would be against it at all. I have never read on this board anything remotely explaining in a rational way why anyone would be against such laws.
If it is fear of not have enough money to buy a car I’d be surprised.
