Great Power news

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Great Power dynamics have always had a Macroeconomic impact. (cf. “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000,” by Paul Kennedy.)
https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-Great-Powers/dp/0679720197/…

After World War 2, the U.S. and USSR were the great powers, locked in a global ideological and power struggle that resulted in a huge amount of defense spending and many proxy wars. After the collapse of the USSR, the U.S. was the sole superpower. From 1989-2022 (roughly 30 years), American strategic thinking was based on this mindset.

There has been a tectonic shift within the past year, with Russia threatening to conquer Ukraine and China building up its military and threatening Taiwan.

Yesterday, there was a major event that could change history.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/03/world/russia-ukraine…

**Putin and Xi Pledge ‘No Limits’ to Russia-China Ties**
**Russia and China join in opposing any expansion of NATO.**

**BEIJING — President Xi Jinping of China on Friday offered firm support to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in the Kremlin’s showdown with the West over Ukraine, strengthening a relationship that presents a continuing challenge to the United States’ dominance on the world stage....**

**In a lengthy joint statement, China accused the United States of stoking protests in Hong Kong and encouraging independence in Taiwan, while Russia said the United States was playing a similarly destabilizing role in Ukraine....**

**Although not a party to the Ukraine conflict, the Chinese government has viewed the showdown as a test of American influence and resolve that could distract Mr. Biden from his administration’s focus on China as the pre-eminent strategic rival of the 21st century...** [end quote]

Here’s a link to the joint statement, in Russian (no English translation).
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67712

It doesn’t matter that Russia has no interest in Taiwan and China has no interest in Ukraine, any more than it mattered that Nazi Germany was nowhere near Imperial Japan. Their aggressive alliance forced the U.S. and England to fight in both Europe and the Pacific.

China can help Russia evade sanctions placed by the West if they invade Ukraine. Russia can help divert U.S. focus on China.

When Russia and China were both communist they weren’t especially friendly to each other. Now that they are both authoritarian kleptocracies they have a strong mutual interest – practical, not ideological.

The rest of the 21st century will be more challenging to the democracies as a result.

Wendy

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When Russia and China were both communist they weren’t especially friendly to each other. Now that they are both authoritarian kleptocracies they have a strong mutual interest – practical, not ideological.

The rest of the 21st century will be more challenging to the democracies as a result.
There’s also a more practical matter… Russia is Putin, and Putin is Russia. The guy turns 70 later this year, and Russians aren’t known for long life expectancy. Xi turns 69 this year and probably has better health than Putin, but that only does so much. The CCP has a very pressing problem in their inverted age triangle. To me, this seems more like the panicked throes of regimes that know their clocks are ticking, grasping at straws for what comes after.

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To me, this seems more like the panicked throes of regimes that know their clocks are ticking, grasping at straws for what comes after.

Which makes them all the more dangerous since not much left to lose and little time to leave with a win.

IP

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Well, I do not know if there are any readers of this board with a Chinese background that could confirm, but besides the current official propaganda, while living in that country 20 years ago, the locals used to tell me: Russia can’t be trusted.

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After World War 2, the U.S. and USSR were the great [MILITARY] powers,

and economy beat ideology.

The Captain

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Well, I do not know if there are any readers of this board with a Chinese background that could confirm, but besides the current official propaganda, while living in that country 20 years ago, the locals used to tell me: Russia can’t be trusted.

Well, they were right.

Could have said the same thing about China.

And any other government, including the US.

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Is there any mention of which currencies that no-limit trade will happen in?

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Putin and Xi Pledge ‘No Limits’ to Russia-China Ties

Minor point but Xi would be better off doing this with a bigger economic power like Italy.

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Putin and Xi Pledge ‘No Limits’ to Russia-China Ties

Hold on…in this reorganization who gets Siberia? Who takes on much of the Chinese debt? If Russia sends most of its fossil fuels to China does China get to put military protection onto Russian territory to “protect” the sources?

I can see why Xi and Putin love each other. Neither one will be able to sleep tonight. Because we all know Xi and Putin hold one human value above all else, “trust”.

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Which makes them all the more dangerous since not much left to lose and little time to leave with a win.

IP

to take and hold power as they do they were in their own special way crazy to begin with, so you are right. But dangerous to each other…possibly first.

How many men say, “I love you” when they dont?

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<I can see why Xi and Putin love each other. Neither one will be able to sleep tonight. Because we all know Xi and Putin hold one human value above all else, “trust”. >

Thanks for the great laugh!
LOL!
Wendy

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China can help Russia evade sanctions placed by the West if they invade Ukraine. Russia can help divert U.S. focus on China.

Wendy

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That is way too simplistic!

It is not that easy for China to help Russia on sanctions because Russia does most of its business with the European countries. China can only help Russia on the margins.

Russia can not help China divert US focus on China. China has business interests in Ukraine and wants to increase those business interests in the future in its Belt and Road imitative. China has not said nothing about Ukraine joining NATO or EU.

Russia and China do not have an alliance! China has not These statements are mainly propaganda to scare the US and European/Asian countries.

Jaak

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Seems like we are heading towards some kind of worldwide authoritarian hegemony.

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