Hey Dan,
I have been sitting on 100% invested holdings all the way down and intend to hold all the way back up. It is gut wrenching for sure. The only moves I have made are those that I would have made anyways regardless of market action.
I understand your reluctance to jump right in. This drop has gone on for far longer than most of us expected. What was our expectation anyways? Probably a 30% drop that seems to happen once or twice a year. Most of those at Saul’s and many others have probably learned to withstand 30% drops by now, so the current market correction naturally has to be greater in order to reach a state of capitulation. If the majority are guessing zig, the market zags. LoL.
So who knows where the bottom really is. We will probably recognise it in the rearview mirror. I like to keep tabs on what the guys on the Mechanical Investing Board are up to. But their bottom detectors are mainly for the broad market, not SaaS/Tech, unfortunately.
So isn’t the sensible choice to dollar-cost-average your way in? Of course you have to choose when to start and when to stop, so you’re still picking “the bottom”, but you don’t need to be as accurate this way.
5th