Have We Seen The Light!

Have we seen the light?


Yesterday, during the sell-off the Nasdaq reached a low of 12,567 crashing through the 13,000 level - my very own defensive barrier-of-last-resort Maginot line. But then…but then… it rallied into the close by almost 900 pts to retake the previously maintained defensive-barrier-of-last-resort Maginot line general area of 13,352 - give or take a handful.

I now solemnly, and with semi-full confidence, hereby and forthwith declare that we have perhaps/maybe, could have (unless we haven’t) reached a bottom. My reasoning is fairly straight forward and simple: If the potential for WWIII writ large across the Ukrainian landscape couldn’t hammer the Nasdaq market lower - then what possibly could?

Special Note: The All-Too-Lovely says with some firmament, that I am only right about half the time I think I am - which probably translates to about 25% or so. But since she won’t read this - HaHaHa I say. To be fair the woman is only about a buck five dripping wet - but when she gets that look in her eye its best to just drift off into the woodwork.

Anyway - since all of us have struggled lately with worries across a lot of territory I thought that what we all might need now is another rendition of that Ole Irish Pub story which takes place in a small Ole Irish Pub in a backcountry idyllic village with a cast of lovable Irish types. So to calm your worries here it is:

In a small rural village located somewhere in Ireland, a regular walks into a small Ole Irish Pub which is always occupied by the same regulars.

O’Cleary: Hello boys - was a fine day indeed!

The Barkeep without a word hands him his regular never ever changing drink in a large tankard.

After taking a sip, O’Cleary spies his friend Conor O’Shea sitting alone by the large fireplace in the far corner of the pub. Conor is obviously downtrodden. So O’Cleary walks over, claps him on the back.

O’Cleary: Conor my boy - what’s ailing you?

Conor: G’day O’Cleary. (looking forlorn) Hope you’re having a better day than me.

O’Cleary: Why Conor O’Shea - what has happened to take so down on such a beautiful day?

Conor: It’s me fields - without some rain they haven’t been looking too good. I am worried about me

O’Cleary: Crops? Why that’s nothing to worry about and worrying ain gonna do much good - and besides, everyone knows that there are only two things to worry about in life!

Conor: Only two things to worry about in life - what might they be?

O’Cleary: Well…the only thing to worry about is whether you are healthy or you are sick.

Conor: hmmmmmmm

O’Cleary: You see Conor boy - if you are healthy there is absolutely nothing to worry about. But if you are sick there are only two things to worry about!

Conor: Just two things to worry about?

O’Cleary: Thats right Conor just two. If you are sick there are only two things to worry about - whether you are going to get well - or, whether you are going to die. Drink up and we’ll get another.

Conor: Lets hear the rest of it O’Cleary - I’m starting to feel better already.

O’Cleary: Well if you die - like I mentioned, there are only two things to worry about. Whether you are going to heaven - or whether you are going to hell.

Conor: Go on with it.

O’Cleary: Well if you to Heaven there is nothing to worry about.

Conor: What about if I die and go to Hell.

O’Cleary Laughing: Why Conor boy - if you was to die and go to hell you would be so busy greeting old friends you wouldn’t have time to worry.

And that’s just how I feel about the market: It gets better and we go back to our very own usual strategies - or it doesn’t, and we just Hunker Down. Simple as that.

All the Best,


Yeah! What he said!


mungofitch on tmf calling it a minor bottom.


Others I follow in the macro world wanted a final day of ending in red on Thursday, which we didn’t get, nor did we ever have a true capitulation day per their metrics.

So thinking it may be a relief rally of unknown duration, similar to after 1/24 lows, with perhaps a final trip to the bottom in March. This makes some sense because when you ignore Ukraine/Russia, you still have the Fed/inflation boogeyman to contend with, and the uncertainty of start of rate hikes. Once they start, and world doesn’t end, I think the market prices it all in and we can move on based on fundamentals vs macro.

That is my hope, anyway.
So I am about half invested, and may take gains in a bit or just let it ride, because I do think it all comes back anyway. at least at the cost basis i have for my various stocks at moment, i like their prospects for good cagr by eoy.

My goal is to deploy rest of cash on that final crash. If the crash never comes, then will have to come up with a new plan!



Hi Dreamer:

Hope the family is well and staying safe!

There you go bringing in logic and common sense. Sheesh.

All that aside - the one part of this that continues to plague my mind is the part about a total capitulation day. On the other hand, I have been adding on the way down (And selling opportunistically) where I thought the odds were good. Much better in this regard than the LTBH roller coaster riders; although, they admittedly must spend much less time trying to get the rhythms down pat. So there is that to consider.

But - in the end, the market will come back and Growth will have its Renaissance. Unless it doesn’t in which case we’ll perhaps have other issues to combat.

All the Best,

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