HoHumYNWA Q3 2023

Investment Analysis Clubs Hohum's RollerCoaster Ride
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Slightly later and I didn’t gather all my data. Still, the quarterly summary serves as a marker and helpful, if looking back.
#1 Major sectors
Tech - (Restarted VZ, TSLA trimmed; rebuilding, more AAPL, more NVDA, COHR mostly sold, but rebuilding, QCOM nibbles )
Shipping - about 17% (build-up of TRMD, SBLK FRO. Then major trimming of SBLK & TRMD Some triming of FRO. Added to FLNG, rebuild of GSL, ZIM nibbles, then exit)
Finance - (IEP in Roth ac trimmed after bounce. IEP comes apart after distribution cut 50%, closed out RA in DRIP ac after div cut news, nibbled on FRGE, nibbles on WU)

#2 The dividend basket
Not pretty after the news from the financial names - IEP, PDT and RA (all announce cuts). Though no distribution cut - AY has gone into a tailspin. On a positive note, the shipping ideas have maintained or increased divs. Also, new fin idea - WU has helped. Have not adjusted div expectation down after cuts e.g. IEP, PDT, RA. However, YTD the div totals are > 90% of target. Again, the major surprises from the shipping side :slight_smile:

#3 Opportunities to monetize
0-15% - Okay: SB, SBLK(10), FRO(5), GSM(1), SE
15-30% - Good: TSLA, SBLK (4), BRK-B, TRMD(3), GSM(4), INSW
30%+ - Great: NAT(2), TRMD, INSW

#4 Realized losses
Only the larger losses > 8%
Ugly: TRMD
Fugly: IEP, PDT, RA, SE (disallowed loss)
(unrealized, some VFS nibbles)

#5 ETF changes
Two QYLD nibbles. Otherwise, this angle has generally been ignored. When the BDI bounced the last week of the quarter, I did ask myself whether I should add to BDRY.

(More to follow)

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#6 Negative surprises
Noted some of them already, but

  • IEP distribution cut and severity of sell-off,
  • The AY tail-spin
  • The COHR whack
  • The VFS beatdown. While $32-ish might have been early, the share price was already down 60%. Into October, it has lost an additional 75%
  • RA sell-off
  • PDT sell-off
  • RYAM retreating after initially doing so well
  • BNS pull-back
  • TRMD price retreat (though this allowed me an opportunity to build up a good stake at a lower price)
  • FLNG price retreat
  • SBLK bouncing after I sold most of my position

#7 Positive surprises
Not as many

  • INSW bounce - not entirely a shock given the supplemental div
  • The NAT bounce pre-dividend
  • FRO;s Q2 results and share bounce
  • NPWR nice rise after my nibble
  • NVDA holding up
  • TRMD bounce

Top 10

  1. Qualcomm (QCOM) ~ 7%
  2. Berkshire Hathaway - B share (BRK-B)
  3. Apple (AAPL)
  4. Flex LNG (FLNG)
  5. Atlantica Yield (AY)
  6. Frontline (FRO)
  7. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
  8. Veeva Systems (VEEV)
  9. Icahn Partners (IEP)
  10. Cool Company (CLCO) ~2%

some contenders: ENTG, WU, NVDA

[Edit:] Per end of Q3 basket +2.36%

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