Went back and revalued port for End-of-July-2025. Was still negative then. But, port has shifted to black since then.
SFL reported Q2 2025 numbers yesterday (08/19). With a dividend cut, shares took a beating, down about 16.5% Today, shares staged a small comeback. Though a little debt constrained, the company is finishing some fleet rejuvenating moves - several groups of older vessels exiting the fleet. The newbuilds don’t deliver right away, The major negative is an idle drilling asset which is an expensive asset to keep warm stacked. Flex LNG reported Q2 2025 results today. No major surprises as FLNG work on refinancing vessels and punt debt further down the road. A couple of shipping ideas still to report (FRO, BWLP) their Q2 numbers. Just noticed that ZIM also reported today. Quick look - tiny div for Q2 2025 (6c/sh) - not a major surprise.
Sept - Post Labor Day
Today, more than a couple of trades involving shipping ideas.
- Trimmed TRMD in Roth ac. Similar move was done in taxable ac in April 2025. The prior move was clumsy, as I dumped my TRMD shares at the low end. In mid-May 2025, shares did rally, but that attempt petered out. The second try at recovery was a lot more impactful. The lesson - don’t do it like that next time. In addition, with taxable ac shares repurchased in June-July 2025, no wash complications on repurchasing TRMD.
- Trimmed NAT. The NAT “experiment” started with a purchase in a small taxable ac. (“Trading ac”). I then made additional NAT purchases in a different taxable ac. The Trading ac purchase has been sold.
- Trimmed FRO in Roth ac. Older shares sold for a gain.
- Amongst my oldest shipping stakes - Tsakos Energy preferred shares (TEN-PE) purchased about 5 years ago. Selling for over its par value ($25), my brain’s logic said at $26.50, I was the one carrying the risk. I closed the position.
- STNG: Timely purchase in mid-April 2025, that turned into a wonderful gain. My primary regret, not purchasing more STNG. Nice 51+% gain over 5 months, plus a couple of dividend payouts. Be greedy, while there are loss offsets from other shipping names in 2025.
FLNG 29.47% of shipping basket
Jan & Feb 2025 had seen a majority of the clean-up of Dorian LPG (LPG) stake in accounts. LPG slashed the payout once more, down to 50c. The last of the LPG stake exited the taxable ac in May 2025 for a decent gain. LPG are on a quirky fiscal calendar - it starts in April. For Q1 2025, LPG bumped their payout to 60c/sh. Keeping an eye on the name
As noted in another thread, majority owner of CLCO is going to take the entity private. EPS Ventures is a private equity component of the Ofer family, and they will pay $9.65/sh for CLCO they don’t already own. I had thrown-in-the-towel on CLCO in early Jan 2025 after the company had indicated they would not pay a div for Q4 2024. Since the payout had already been slashed over 60% in Q3 2024, I had very little upside outlook for the company.
Also keeping an eye on the tanker names. Though I have monetized on FRO recently. I am encouraged by what is occurring in the VLCC segment. Is it really short term? That would be strictly Q3. Though Q4 2024 was a disappointment, Q4’s are typically stronger. Does the market revert back to a stronger Q4? Don’t know yet. Seen some chatter about a developing market for Suezmax vessels - Guyana. One of the analysts should pose that question to FRO mgmt. A tanker biggie like FRO can offer their insight - especially since they have 20 Suezmax vessels (only one is TC). NAT also has 20 Suezmax vessels. But, in their case 4 - 6 vessels are in the TC market. Keeping an eye on INSW too. That one has what I consider a good recycling opportunity.
10/10
My shipping names have been mostly downward sloping this month. Then today, “that guy” uttered tariffs again, and pulled down the US markets. China had been celebrating Golden week from the start of the month, which typically means a reduction of some business activity. Shipping is one of the segments impacted. The last few weeks has seen me bump up my stake in a few names. In partcular, LPG tanker entity BWLP. Yesterday, I opted to nibble on SFL
At the close of trading basket looks like this
- FLNG 27.69%
- BWLP 25.27%
- INSW 20.51%
- TRMD 10.76%
- FRO 5.60%
- Under 5%: NAT, ZIM, CMBT, SFL
[Edit: More shipping names red, but overall shipping basket is still positive at this time]
10/18
Lots of clamor on various issues that impact shipping - [MF says I can’t use the word]-for-tat tariffs, potential trade wars, disarray at IMO meeting, etc. Various holdings bouncing forced some short term decisions.
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Not really sure where the LNG shipping market stands, so I just opted to trim the FLNG stake. Cap gains negative, but net positive. Just for the potential to reset my FLNG costs basis. And add some complexity to my taxes
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[Grr! this annoying formatting aspect] Same thought process on INSW. Loss harvesting to reset the INSW cost basis.
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NAT - we have a winner! The decision to complete a deeper dive into this name, and then subsequently take some nibbles in this name have paid off. With the dividend, this particular nibble produced > 34% in under 5 months. Can NAT continue to run? Sure, there is one NAT slice left for that possibility.
10/31 Happy Halloween!
End of the Month and I am sitting with 2 large shipping pumpkins, 1 slightly large shipping pumpkin, 1 medium sized shipping pumpkin, a small pumpkin, and 3 very small shipping ‘kins. Thru a combination of additions and subtractions, and some stock price behavior, my top two shipping ideas swap spaces. BW LPG (BWLP) is now my largest stake, and Flex LNG (FLNG) moves to 2nd spot.
- BWLP 30.26%
- FLNG 27.31%
- INSW 21.04%
- TRMD 13.15%
- FRO 6.12%
- CMBT, NAT, SFL - each less than 2%
On the shipping side, a couple of quarterly results have been announced - each by a tanker company. DHT & TNK have both announced their Q3 2025 results. Any takeaways? Well, DHT’s fleet is strictly VLCCs, so DHT might have some data that becomes relevant for my FRO holding. I think, with more VLCCs trading spot, FRO could have decent Q3 2025 results. TNK is more an owner of medium-size tankers. I am ambivalent on TNK management strategy. Or perhaps, lack of strategy. TNK is sitting on a huge amount of cash (over $700M), but has been very quiet on the future growth plans Is two vessels adding to fleet growth, when 10 vessels have been sold? ZIM was my one red holding at the start of October 2025. The position has exited the basket. All my shipping positions are black. [Edit: Should have add this data-point - spot VLCC rates surged to the highest level in 5 years - the Covid uncertainty. Benchmark route TD3C @ over $125000 daily]
11/28 Well, trading for Nov 2025 is done. Fair number of shipping companies reported their Q3 results, including TEN (which typically lags when it comes to quarterly results). But, there are still some who have not reported, including BWLP.
Regarding my own basket, yesterday (11/28) my top 2 flipped positions (BWLP moved higher, FLNG lost some ground). Some smaller moves wrt FRO & TRMD. Then realized gains with FRO. Crude tanker companies generally reported a better Q3 vs Q2 in 2025. And seem to projecting a better Q4-to-date (Last year was not very good). For the port
- BWLP 26.74%
- FLNG 26.17%
- INSW 19.53%
- TRMD 16.21%
- FRO 6.45%
- Less than 5% ideas: SFL, CMBT, NAT
The port fees on Chinese vessels have been suspended for about a year. After that, who knows. Besides the crude tanker market uptick, there could be other smaller surprises. Have to wait till next week for BW LPG to provide their outlook for the VLGC market. Dry bulk shipping might also have a reasonable bounce.
Hafnia Tankers (HAFN) and BW LPG (BWLP) reported their Q3 2025 results on 12/01 and 12/02 respectively. With a sizable BWLP position, the latter’s results were useful for understanding the company’s performance in Q3 2025. But, in addition, provide some outlook on Q4 2025. In some ways, it was more than an outlook. I mean, the company could provide the shipping side TCE for 91% of Q4 2025. Not the highest TCE for a typically strong quarter. But also, not a terrible avg either.
Heading to the close of 2025 with a slightly smaller (but black) shipping basket than same time last year. Worse aspect, this time last year, the basket was very red. Went into 2025 with that negativity, and immediately got hit with a series of bad developments - CLCO eliminating div, HAFN slashing payout, LPG cutting div.
At the end of the day, taking ownership and trying to understand what could have been done better, the scope of my position exits was probably the biggest mistake. I mean, left alone, the 2024 shipping basket would still be very negative. Some ideas, e.g. ECO, not only recovered, but zoomed past the original purchase price (That one is a great case of “patience grasshopper”). But, another really good example is BWLP in my Roth ac. There were two BWLP sell transactions (Feb 2025 - a loss on 60% of 2024 stake, Sep 2025 - a gain on the remaining 40% of 2024 position). In between those two sells, multiple buy BWLP transactions at a lower cost. So, in my Roth ac, I close out 2025 with not only a larger BWLP stake, but one that is at a lower cost basis.
While not all holdings would have turned out like ECO or BWLP, my guess is the “realized red” could have been less with other names.
In 2024, I had to deal with a family emergency at year-end. So, the basket was on auto-pilot thru the end of the year. This year, I’ve had the ability to look at the shipping basket, and factor in where I think the various shipping segments are (Tankers vs dry bulk vs LNG shipping, etc), to assist in adjustments. Since I did a majority of my “idea resets” during the first half of 2025, I am less in the trimming mode. Actually, there have been a few nibbles, including HAFN which had exited in Feb/Mar 2025. Tanker shipping of all flavors appears to be healthier than at the same time last year. Oddly, a few have been inching down. Idea on my radar (but not in the port) is ECO. The company has announced a deal to acquire two newbuild Suezmax vessels. The company announced a quick move with a secondary offering @ $35.50/sh to raise new capital for the new vessels. That just provides a mark for an ECO entry price.
12/31
Close out 2025 with a shipping basket of 9 names. Ranked by size
- BWLP 29.86%
- FLNG 25.90%
- INSW 16.60%
- TRMD 15.74%
- FRO 5.55%
- HAFN
- NAT
- CMBT
- SFL 1.16%
I heard on the radio, too much oil being produced worldwide. That might explain the older tonnage being sold instances. If vessels are used for temp storage i.e. contango situation, the vessel is typically modern (under 15 years). This is due to contango nuances - vessel could be called on to make prompt delivery, no predefined location, on short notice. NAT’s two recent vessel sales are probably a good case of fewer opportunities - as a sailing option. Vessel were both unencumbered for most of 2025. Medium term, those vessels might fill a storage need. Just not a contango storage need. Also, heard some positive developments in the dry bulk segment. While that might be the case, my own involvement in the sector is via a small stake in CMBT. At a lower price point, SBLK, might have potential as an addition.
Unlike 2024, I don’t have a lot of depressed shipping positions to close out 2025. Only TRMD & HAFN are red to end the year. FWIW, HAFN has a stake in TRMD (about 15%). Will see whether the situation changes in 2026.
Those look like attractive dividend stocks–most over 10% yield.
At current prices, the only name I am projecting for a 10% yield in 2026 is FLNG. Even that case has a dependency. FLNG needs either nice spot rates or a charter contract extension, at a slightly higher rate. In 2026, BWLP has an “above-average” dry docking schedule and a VLGC shipping market that is, typically, a tale of two halves.