Semi-patiently slogging thru Q4 2024

10/01
The final quarter starts …
With the East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers strike now official, I’m a little challenged with ideas right now.
After little news from NFE the last month or so, a flurry of events today

  • First cargo from FLNG asset was completed
  • Company just completed a secondary offering of shares @ $8.63-a-pop (lower than my exit price)
    [Edit]
  • NFE is in such a bad shape, they had to retract a prior dividend announcement.

Q4 trading has commenced

  • TRMD hit - opted to add to Roth position
  • VERI pullback - added to taxable ac position

[Edit2]
Just noticing after-hours, I do have a couple of picks that had a decent day- LPG, GCT & GSM

3 Likes

10/02 - 10/04
Some existing ideas demonstrated an up-down action, and others, an up-down-up action.

  • Added to YMAG in taxable ac. Asking myself, should I initiate stake in Roth ac?
  • One of those up-down-up ones: GSM. Added to taxable ac stake
  • Added to GSM stake in Roth ac
  • Added to BEN in taxable ac
  • Added to NKE in Roth ac
  • New idea: HIMS in Roth ac
  • AAPL nibble in Roth ac
  • Longshore workers strike is over & ZIM is plunging - nibbled on former idea
  • More LPG for taxable ac (potential stake for resetting cost basis)
1 Like

Week 2 October (most of)
Testing the waters with two new ideas, somewhat beaten up

  • Non-tech LULU
  • Tech LCRX
  • Then back to normal, existing ideas (in Roth ac) TRMD
  • Initiated GCT in Roth (position exists in taxable ac)
  • More BROS in Roth ac
  • More WU in taxable ac
  • More BRK-B in Roth ac
  • More GSM in taxable ac
  • On bounce, trimmed BWLP in Roth ac

10/10 - 10/11

The latter is the more well-known of the two. SSSS is kinda interesting as a play, as it gets the opportunity to invest in pre-IPO names. That doesn’t make those names a sure thing. In reality, if the names actually make it to the public market, many just fizzle. SSSS was an early investor in FaceBook (now META). While META has a trillion dollar valuation now, it too, struggled out the gate. I mean, it started with a gain, but that fizzled. Then company slowly worked its way out. SSSS monetized their FaceBook shares too early. Yes, I know SSSS had a good IRR on the investment. But, a sideline investor could have done very well with FaceBook once it was public. Anyways, it is interesting to note SSSS is currently undervalued on a NAV basis, and hence triggered my interest (might have to dig into SSSS more)
[Edit: Port recovery slowly occurring - now less than 2.5% off high-water mark guesstimate]

10/14
The odd holiday when some markets are open for trading. Cursory glance at port - tech names seem to be doing okay (QCOM moving higher with an analyst upgrade due to initial sales on Snapdragon upgrades), crude tanker names taking a general hit, and retail (BROS, LULU, CELH) on a positive trend.

Added to DLTR - taxable ac
Added to GOGL - taxable ac

Looked around at other options
Nibble on LRCX - Roth ac
Added to INSW - taxable ac
Add to VERI - order did not fill

Rotation out of tankers? Dirty and clean tankers fell. More attacks on vessels reported - bulkers in Black Sea, another tanker in Red Sea, vessel in Indian Ocean. Still felt comfortable adding to INSW.

10/15
Not the worst day. But coming off a holiday when stock trading was possible … Fraaack!
Thoughts going thru the head

  • Should have sold more BWLP on the bounce last week.
  • Should I have trimmed ECO yesterday?
  • While negative, Roth ac is helped by BRK-B position

[Edit
Later in the day

  • NVDA nibble in Roth ac
  • LRCX nibble in taxable ac
  • Considered adding to TRMD
  • Considered adding to ENTG

/Edit]

10/16
Another musing type post.
Each trading day this week, I have added to a shipping idea
Mon - GOGL
Tue - INSW
Wed - TRMD
What do I know about shipping markets currently?

  • Dry bulk sector is coming off Golden week holiday. Rates not fantastic, but proftable
  • Q3 LPG rates not great, but Q4 is supposed to improve
  • Tanker rates generally okay. Sector is probably closer to normal behavior than others in shipping
  • Container shipping rates: Not sure. Other than small ZIM position, I’m not involved.
    Currently most appealing names: INSW, HAFN & TRMD

And then, other sectors.

  • Still thinking about ENTG
  • Added to CELH in Roth ac
  • Considered adding to YMAG

10/18
Just so I could say a-shipping-idea-per-day this week
Fri - ASC initiated in taxable ac
Yesterday
Thur - FLNG nibble

On bounce, trimmed NVDY (Roth reset attempt)
More VERI in Roth ac
More LRCX in Roth ac

[Edit: Why ASC? For some reason, I had not picked up on this item - low debt. ASC has less than $100M in debt. Slightly more, if one includes the preferred equity. In many respects, a mini Hafnia ]

1 Like

10/22
To those that have a method - great! To those that don’t, HohumYNWA has a 1-day special wacky method - it involves whacking ideas into or out of the port. Definitely an antsy kind of mood
Roth ac

  • Added FLNG
  • Trimmed QYLD
  • Another GLNG nibble

Taxable ac

  • Trimmed IEP
  • Added to INSW

A few months back, IESC was a clumsy trade on my part. Shares tumbling today - is there a reason for this?

[Edit: Two Roth ac trades have caused GLNG to nudge its way into 10th spot in self-managed port]

10/23
In one specific case, the shipping beat-down, feeling similar to yesterday - a little antsy. But again, for quite a few shipping names, I have target prices set way before something happens. In INSW’s case, I’m lowering my Roth ac cost basis of INSW - so added to my INSW stake. Early last month, I had exited CLCO in the Roth ac. Today, I’m adding to the taxable ac stake (no wash, lowering cost basis).

GSM taking a beating - another nibble in taxable ac

[Edit
Some thoughts on LNG: Is the LNG tanker market responding to this?

FLNG don’t own TFDE-type vessels. Also, only one of their 13 vessels has a charter associated with the market. CLCO does own some TFDE-type vessels (9 of 11 or 12). However, CLCO has little market exposure on its vessels. Actually, the unknown item is the fixing of its newbuild LNG carrier (not TFDE) ]

10/24
And then it bursts – had seen PHUN show up on %-gains lists earlier in the week. Today, down 40%. Owned the entity about four years ago, when it previously had a multi-bagger type pop. Several of the bagger multiples disappeared within a week. But PHUN share held some nice gains for a short while, and then the gains evaporated again. PHUN had a Bitcoin presence, and a software business.

A little later, Phunware acquired a computer assembly business. Then earlier this year (Feb 2024), a reverse stock split. There was a subsequent dilution event that bumped up the share count.

Phunware CEO resigned today –

According to the Interwebs–

PHUN owned 630 Bitcoin per Sept 12, 2024.
No PHUN position since 2022.

10/25
Some items to end the week.

  • Wot? Was not expecting that data-point from Dorian (LPG),
    Company is hinting at a very reasonable Q3 TCE rate - one better than Q2! It didn’t appear that way when LPG reported their Q2 results.
    That caused me to spring into action
    More LPG in Roth ac, more LPG in taxable ac
    [Edit: div is maintained, but LPG’s suggested Q3 TCE is what motivated the action]

  • Saw the 4th YMAG payout for Oct post in the taxable ac. One, make it, two words - very disappointing.

  • Messed up my port yardsticks this week. Realized I still had Roth contributions to make. So, I made another year 2024 contribution this week.

  • Trimmed IEP from taxable ac

  • Wassup wit PHUN? After yesterday’s 40% sell-off, today it bounces 25% For the week, up 62%

  • Overall, “Meh” => slightly negative week

Oct 28 - 30

  • The IEP trims the last 10 days result in lower losses.
  • Added to TRMD in taxable ac
  • Restarted WU in Roth ac
  • The shipping beatdown continues. Dry bulk shipping is a little more hazy. But, still have faith in most of my tanker bets.

Oct 31
Spooky - one word to possibly describe the port during October. Today, bad stuff happening across the port.
Didn’t allow the negativity to stop me from making some Halloween trades

  • More COHR in taxable ac
  • More ARCO in taxable ac
  • More NVDY in Roth ac
  • More INSW in Roth ac


Did I mis-read the LPG preview statement? Or did something else change? The Q2 TCE was around $37K daily. For some reason, I thought LPG had said the rate was higher. Or perhaps, I had read Q3 rate figures, but forgotten Q3 for LPG is current qtr (Oct-to-Dec). “Just reported” is Q2 2024


Bitcoin names taking a hit. COIN is a major Bitcoin name taking a beating today. Is this an opportunity for a starter position?

1 Like

11/05
Election Day
Maybe it is because of IB’s splash page has a survey on the Elections.
I’ve probably traded on other Election days or Election Primary days prior to today. But, today seems like a big day and I seem aware of today’s trades.

  • LULU in taxable ac
  • Exited tiny GCTS position on bounce
  • BRK-B nibble in Roth ac
  • TRMD nibble in Roth ac
  • FRO nibble in taxable ac

11/06
For a change - a really nice day for the port. Where to start?
Mr Obvious - BRK/B
GSM - scheduled to report 11/07
QCOM
COHR
BROS - Positive trading day; After market close, nice results - nice pop