Happy New Year! This begins the 2026 version of the shipping theme. This time last year, I was returning from an overseas trip, and the shipping basket (and the overall port) had not been actively managed for several weeks. I mention this, because I had forgotten what happens with the shipping market during Christmas time. The answer is - reporting activity, especially from Greek shipping brokers, becomes quiet through Epiphany. Then activity picks up again. I guess I will just leave off with where the port was at the end of 2025
Yesterday’s developments in Venezuela adds a new wrinkle to 2026.
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01/06 Bounces from a few shipping names including CMBT, LPG, FRO, BWLP. Decided to close out my CMBT stake, and trimmed my TRMD stake in the Roth ac. The LPG bounce is bitter-sweet since I no longer have an LPG stake. LPG was one of those shipping ideas I messed up last year. While the logic for the LPG sell appeared to make sense (two div cuts the first half of 2025). The idea was worth a revisit, after two div hikes moved the div from 50c/sh to 65c/sh. Maybe not the same size stake as it was in 2024, but at least a small one. Anyways, the bounce was at least partially due to an earnings upgrade from Pareto.
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01/26
Should I be bumping up my FRO exposure? With the tanker market usually being quite bouncy, it is tricky to get a good sense of how to play it. Then FRO mgmt pull a move like the one announced today - Seven VLCCs on one year deals @ $76,900.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4542696-frontline-scores-impressive-76900day-charter-out-contracts-for-seven-vlccs?mailingid=43745037&messageid=2900&position=rta_news_bankr_cc_main_2_textlink&serial=43745037.257&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-4&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=43745037.257
Yes, currently VLCC spot rate are over $90K daily on most routes. But, can that level be sustained for 3 months? 6 months? a year? $76,900 is an unusually high rate for a 1-year charter. Repeating the feat 7 times, … very good chartering business. The charterer possibly being Sinokor adds more intrigue. What extra bit of data does Sinokor have regarding the market? Still trying to suss that data point out. Near term, this company is executing really well.
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01/31
The end of the month saw me trim my HIMS stake. This meant the idea dropped out of my Top 10 holdings. In its place, TRMD moved up to fill the 10th spot. This means I have four shipping ideas in my Top 10 – BWLP, FLNG, INSW and TRMD.
During the month of Jan 2026, I have sold my three smaller shipping ideas i.e. SFL, CMBT and NAT. This means I only have six shipping names. Besides the four mentioned earlier, the last two are FRO and HAFN.
Results from shipping companies start this coming week. I know of at least two shipping companies reporting - DHT (Q4 2025) & LPG (Q3 2026). The latter announced its Q3 2026 div - 70c/sh.
The various shipping segments seem to be enjoying a market upswing. The more obvious, crude oil shipping and LPG, have seen more positive trading markets. Dry bulk has seen an upswing. But, that seems more targeted by vessel size - Cape category. While I think many shipping companies will have good, maybe great, results, I am somewhat reluctant to chase after names.
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The toxicity of the Shipping board currently, forces me to dissect my shipping view here. As an example, today (02/04) DHT reported results. My thoughts on the results will be here rather than the Shipping News board. From DHT mgmt
- Shipping rev of $143.9M
- Adjusted EBITDA of $95.3M
- Profit after tax of $66.1M
- Declared div of 41c/sh (prior div was 18c/sh)
- Company sold a pair of 2007-built VLCCs that deliver in Q1 2026. And reported a sale of an additional VLCC (also 2007 built) in the last couple of days.
https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/media/dba5854d-f48b-4595-8cdf-2e7c1409ccad/document/?v=02042026094100
DHT managed a combined rate of $60,300 daily comprised of Spot $69,500 daily and $49,400 TC. [Edit: Nice rates on TC. But feel somewhat let down based on what markets were suggesting for Q4 2025. Looks like DHT had a lot of TC to bring the overall rate to $60,300]. Will have to wait for other major VLCC owners with Spot trading vessels to report]. Interesting comment on VLCC consolidation.
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02/05
Dorian LPG (LPG) announced their quarterly results today. Dorian LPG are on a different cycle than their shipping (NOT Energy) peers. So LPG are reporting their Q3 2026 numbers currently. LPG had pre-announced their Q3 div - 70c/sh a few days ago. Some of their stats
- Rev of $120M
- Time Charter Equivalent $50,333 daily
- Net Income of $47.2M
- Company has bumped up their charter-in fleet (now 6 vessels)
https://dorianlpg.com/newsroom/news-and-press-releases/news-details/2026/Dorian-LPG-Ltd--Announces-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
LPG making good money. $50K daily is a very nice rate. Then again, second half of the year is the stronger half.
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02/11
Flex LNG announced their Q4 2025 results earlier this AM.
- $85M in revenue, $62M Adj EBITDA, adj NI of $23.3M, div maintained @ 75c/sh. The latter not being covered is a problem. Their charter situation gets more challenging with a third vessel rolling off charter.
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Interestingly, SFL also reported quarterly results yesterday. Company maintained div @ 20c, and market seemed to react positively to the development as shares jumped 10%. The release mentioned a transaction - acquired a pair of 2020-built Suezmax. Skimmed the Earnings call - SFL made $$ off the contract termination. The original transaction involved 4 Suezmax - 2 Chinese-built, 2 South Korean built. The company delivered one of the Chinese built vessels in Q4 2025, and deliver the second in Q1 2026. The remaining Suezmax pair are trading in spot market. Decided to trim FLNG in Roth ac.
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FLNG is down more than the dividend payment over the last couple days. If they cannot cover the dividend, it becomes a matter of time before bookings or cuts are required, no?
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@GDavenport- FLNG is providing some type of revenue projection on both revenue and TCE. A lot of the vessels are on Sale-&-leaseback financing transactions and Flex LNG does have a decent cash balance. I think management has a good idea on how big the cash reservoir cushion is. Eventually the cushion goes away, and FLNG likely cuts the payout. My own modeling for FLNG dividend was $2.50/sh in 2026. Or, 75c/sh for two quarters, 50c/sh for two quarters.
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Positive development for BWLP last week - company added charter coverage for fleet
BW LPG signs 3-year deals for two vessels | Seeking Alpha
BWLP mgmt has discussed charter coverage in the past. The company has been okay with having TC coverage of up to 40%. But, the coverage has to be at the right rate. IIRC, the company aims for at least $40K daily.
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02/19 Another name I don’t own reported yesterday, but discussed results today - TNK.
Yesterday, TNK just mentioned Top line rev and indicated reg div of 25c/sh. Today, a lot more details. Rates by vessel category
Suezmax - $52.8K daily
Aframax/LR2 - $42.7K daily
VLCC - $76.2K daily
In Jan 2026, TNK acquired 3 2016-built Aframax tankers - the company’s first multi vessel purchase in many years. The company sold a Suezmax in Oct 2025, and has announced plans to sell another Suezmax, and the lone VLCC, in Q1 2026. The company also extended a charter-in vessel for one more year.
TNK Q4-25 ER Document
TNK paid over $140M for three ~10-yo vessels, or $47M per vessel. The sellers keep the vessels a little longer. TNK get the vessels the 2nd half of 2026. But, this is really a medium-term move. The vessels are modern for 5 more years, then likely have less charter options after their third docking
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02/20
Very interesting article on Sinokor and its potential backer on its VLCC buying spree, MSC’s Aponte. If the war-chest is indeed $5B, the actual VLCC count might reach 60 - 70 vessels. I just don’t get the older tonnage angle, the 2010s and the 2011s, and the premiums being tossed out on those vessel acquisitions.
Gianluigi Aponte stands behind Sinokor spree now surpassing 40 VLCCs :: Lloyd’s List
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02/27
Last couple of days has seen a flurry of tanker companies reporting. I think only one name, in my shipping basket, BWLP, have yet to report their Q4 2025 results. That said, trading is done for Feb 2026, so might as well take stock here. Saw this item, and commented elsewhere on this Sinokor item -
Supertanker Shortage Deepens as Sinokor Gains Control - TT
Crazy stuff. That might lend some weight to the idea that Sinokor is behind the 8 FRO TCs. And the most recent $93.5K charter? No idea. Either way interesting times.
After some small moves, the port looks like this
- BWLP 28.30%
- FLNG 20.96%
- INSW 20.55%
- TRMD 17.87%
- FRO 7.61%
- HAFN < 5%
- GSL < 5%
All ideas black
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03/04 BWLP reported yesterday, so that wraps up shipping basket ideas reporting Q4 2025 numbers. There is now the big elephant in the room - war against Iran. I guess, the issue becomes Iran’s response … not just to Israel, but the MEG countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for passage to Indian Ocean. As BWLP reported after the 02/28/26 bombing of Iran, it became the first shipping to report status of vessels in MEG region. In the BWLP case, two operational vessels and one vessel in dry dock (one doesn’t think of MEG for dry dock, but the region has improved its capabilities in the last few years). Of course, if one needs major vessel parts, I imagine that’s more challenging currently. Probably involves a decent amount of logistics - but air freight to India, ship to Indian Ocean shore of Middle East, then truck it via road to the MEG port?? But then, even if a repair/dry dock could be completed, vessel is still stuck in the Gulf.
Will still keep an eye on some of the shipping names. Long haul routes e.g. LNG carriers, VLGCs or VLCCs, from US Gulf to Asia would be a big beneficiary.
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03/05 An LNG shipping update. Due to what is going on in the Middle East Gulf area, major LNG producer Qatar has halted production. The result is a spike in rates elsewhere. What is the LNG rate? How about $300K daily.
LNG Shipping Rates Soar 650% to $300,000 Per Day | OilPrice.com
That very drastically flips the picture for those LNG shipping entities with modern vessels and available for spot trading. Flex LNG (FLNG) is one such shipping entity - with three LNG tankers (each less than 9 years old) trading spot. Two weeks ago, having vessels available for spot trading was a negative. With the world’s 2nd largest producer shutdown, in theory, this should be somewhat of a negative. I mean, spot trading vessels about the same, but fewer cargos with Qatar shut in. I’m guessing the charterer will favor the more efficient vessels, so that might explain the rate spike. Unlike the VLCC situation, the higher rate isn’t in the MEG region. The higher rate is outside the MEG region because that is where LNG cargos can navigate more easily.
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03/10 On small price pull back, decided to nibble on DHT. Had been thinking about it since the MEG region got shuttered, and opted to make the move today. DHT has added charter coverage in the last few weeks - $90K, $94K and $105K (each daily). As I recall, DHT was already around 50% TC. These three charters should smooth out the quarterly choppiness. On the more significant pull-back, INSW was also a consideration.
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03/13 Today wraps up week 2 of March 2026. This week has seen a series of small moves to build up the shipping basket. Obviously, shipping is dominated by events in the Middle Easr. An ancillary item to the situation in the MIddle East is, for a ship owner, there is a two part question, how many vessels does a specific shipping company have “stuck in lockdown”? % of vessels in lockdown to total vessels? At this point, I have seen mention from two entities - BWLP - 3, and PSHG - 1. The latter has a smaller fleet, so percentage-wise PSHG is higher than BWLP. That was a factor in deciding to incrementally rebuild my BWLP stake. I would like to know FRO’s situation with those two questions. Well, the other shipping companies too. And, I am sure the data will eventually trickle out - a company actually stating the situation. Or seeing the idle percentage in the fleet climb, or a news report identifying vessels. So, a number of ways the data could come out. Obviously ballast days are also impacted by routes.
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