Happy New Year!
I actually arrived back in the United States two days ago (12/31) after a long 15.50 hour flight with 4.5-hour terminal transit, and a final 1 hr flight – long, long day. Had not really been prioritizing the self-managed port in closing out the year. Port ended the year positive. But, it (single digits) trailed the major indices significantly (double digits). The shipping basket decline in Q4 2024 was a major factor. But, not the only factor. Not locking in gains on QCOM or CELH were other major factors. But that was 2024.
I am in 2025 now. That means a reset to the starting point. There will be trades today and tomorrow (Jan 2 and Jan 3) to kick things off.
4 Likes
01/02
Kicked off the first trading day of 2025 with some trades (additions only)
- Added to ABEV in taxable ac
- Added to GSM in taxable ac
- Initiated VSH in Roth ac
- Added to NVDY in taxable ac
A good day for liquid gas, and not just the shipping side. Progres for GLNG with Kosmos Energy indicating the GTA field has delivered gas to the FLNG Gimi- reduces the uncertainty on COD time-frame. Good bounces from LPG, FLNG, BWLP.
Dividends piled up the last two weeks of Dec 2024 and allowed the income to blow way past expectations - that’s even with significant shortfalls from IEP, AY, etc. Will have to work out plans for dividend expectations in 2025.
1 Like
01/06
First sell in 2025. Got a little lucky on this one. Since it is a new year, decided it was a good time to reset my shipping basket. There are at least a couple of ideas where this makes some sense. LPG is one such case. LPG shares bounced earlier in the day and that’s when I placed my sell order. It filled. About 45 min later, shares retreated. Timing and luck, not any foresight.
Added to CELH in Roth ac
Added to BRK-B in Roth ac
[Edit: Only sold a portion of my taxable LPG shares. Figure it might be easier to track wash transactions, if I am allowing myself that possibility.
In the last hour, added to my BEN stake ]
1 Like
01/07 - 01/08
Since the new year has started and I did very few transactions after mid Dec 2024, a good chance to make changes early in the year.
- On FRO bounce, trimmed FRO shares in taxable ac. (Gains - no wash, so far)
- Decided to clean out CLCO. May wash a portion of the transaction.
- Added to VSH in taxable ac
- Another TGT nibble
- Tanker names got a bounce on 01/07/25. Giving some back today.
- More ENTG in Roth ac
1/10
Another nice tanker bounce day.
- Opted to dump more LPG on the bounce (in taxable ac)
- Added to INSW in taxable ac
- Added to NVDA in Roth ac
- Added to GSM in Roth ac
Why the second LPG trim? Sure, it isn’t the only candidate that’s taken a dive since I acquired my stake. There are a couple of factors, but I think the biggest one is the irregular dividend payout means it is subject to adjustment. While a lower dividend is also likely from other shipping entities e.g. TRMD, INSW their set-up is slightly different. TRMD bases its payout on cashflow, so I think Q4 being a lower payout is already built into their lower price. INSW already has a fixed payout + irregular payout.
I discover last week that a SeekingAlpha buddy reached his goal. “Integrator” had set himself a goal of growing a portfolio from $275K to $1M in 10 years. He accomplished the goal with a whole year to spare.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742864-project-1m-end-of-a-journey-with-mission-accomplished
Although I had followed only the last 2.5 years of the journey, I still found his picks and decisions quite interesting. He was generally a buy-and-hold type investor, so there wasn’t a lot of churn among his picks. Maybe someone will try something similar
1/13 - 1/17
Shipping misbehavin’ again, so just some smaller moves
- More ZIM in taxable acs
- Washed some of LPG shares from week 1
Then looked at other stuff to clean up or reset
- Trimmed ENTG in Roth ac on bounce
- More TGT for taxable ac. Switched on DRIP
- Trimmed LRCX in Roth ac
- Trimmed CELH in Roth ac
- Added to NVDY in Roth ac
- Added to VSH in Roth ac
1/21 - 1/24
Less motivated to complete transactions. But still, some did occur
- GLNG nibble in Trading ac
- AMD nibble in taxable ac
- Added to AAPL in Roth ac
- More FRO in taxable ac
- More BWLP in Roth ac
- More CAMT in taxable ac (shares pulled back)
01/27
Yowzah! That’s a whack that AI never saw coming …
Mentioned elsewhere - major names like NVDA, AVGO, ANET with double-digit % takedowns. Another holding COHR also got bashed.
Then again, I got some BRK-B and AAPL that did some offset. Not a lot, but some.
When there’s blood in the streets, run …
Or buy something … bought some ANET.
If you liked it at earlier prices, do you love it now? I bought more NVDA. (about 20% additional to position) We shall see.
2 Likes
@GDavenport
NVDA:
- I realized some great gains last year.
- Then when it started taking off again, I bought in the $125s and realized wrong price, took some losses.
- Then started again, in the $110s
- Earlier this year, more in the $135s.
- The latter are the red NVDA shares. Certainly worth watching.
Yesterday, ANET was just more appealing.
[Edit: Today’s rebound, decent - about 48% for a majority of the self-managed port]
1 Like
01/30
Slightly active today.
- Trimmed WU in Roth ac
- Trimmed GOGL in taxable ac (on bounce)
- Nibbled on AMD in Roth ac
- More ZIM in taxable ac
Last week Dorian (LPG) made a news announcement of their Q3 div. I only caught wind of the announcement today AH. Irregular div of 70c/sh (down from $1 in Q2 2024). If maintained @ 70c, it would be a $2.80/sh annual payout. That would be an annual yield > 10% That said, LPG do say irregular div, and the first half of the year is typically (but not always) weaker in an annual cycle. Some luck, exit prices better than current price.
UPS shares took a dive today. I think, the Amazon related news was the cause. Added to UPS stake
1 Like
02/04
Was somewhat surprised on UPS reporting Q4 results last week. More surprising was the timing of FLNG - on 02/04 pre-market, I think the first shipping company to report. Being mostly non-US based, shipping companies tend to report later in the quarter, so FLNG is a definite surprise from a timing perspective.
FLNG is my largest shipping idea, and third largest holding in my self-managed port. The company maintained their quarterly dividend @ 75c/sh. I think their Q4 revenue matched expectations - around $90M. One new LT charter plus a pair of medium charters with options, adds a good chunk of backlog years. My guess is some of dividend is due to the dynamics of vessel re-financing. Will have to see what the actual numbers are, but for me, a debt level around 55-60% would be reasonable. Each of the FLNG vessels is a MEGI or XDF type vessel, so I think there is a built-in intrinsic value given their delivery time-frame. In any case, I am happy with Q4 2024.
02/04
Don’t try this at home. This is for “shipping gymnastic daredevils”
- FLNG reported Q4 2024 results today. Maintained div should have generated positive effect. It did not. No change on my part.
- BWLP did not report Q4 2024 results. BWLP shares bounced more than 4.75% Trimmed my BWLP stake. Short leash, will add if it pulls back a little.
- TRMD did not report Q4 2024 results. TRMD shares bounced more than 4.5% Trimmed my TRMD stake. Also has a short leash. Will add on a small pullback.
- Tech? Nothing too appealing today (Yes, PLTR had a nice bounce)
02/03 - 02/07
First week of Feb 2025. Commented on shipping related mood on 02/04. Per the Chinese saying, “we are living in interesting times”. Trying not to let the crazy stuff bother me too much. However, the market tends to set off different signals.
Taxable ac: Early in the week, on the VERI bounce, trimmed the stake. Looked like a good move … intraday … on a couple of days. Then not by the end of the day. Then it was good yesterday. But not today.
Decided to do more resetting in taxable ac. This time it was ABEV. Dumped a majority of my ABEV stake. Will repurchase after 31+ days.
The clean-up feeling felt good. Extended the experience to Roth ac, and locked in gains with COHR.
Already mentioned the shipping ideas trim stuff. As noted, both names were on a short leash. Yesterday, added a little TRMD back to Roth position.
Added a little more AMD to Roth ac
Added a little more CAMT to taxable ac
02/10
Names in the port were bouncing around. Reasonable bounces from QCOM, GSM, & NVDY.
As noted last week, TRMD is on a short leash. So today, added more to the Roth ac. Being careful to just isolate a few names. In taxable ac, it is VERI. In the Roth ac - TRMD & BWLP.
Over 30 days have passed, so the CLCO loss is official. Shares are selling about 9% lower. But, after recent LNG charter rate data, there isn’t a major rush to jump back in. Besides what I already own in shipping, keeping an eye on TEN and STNG.
02/12
One of those types of days
- On bounce, FRO trim in Roth ac
- On bounce, INSW close-out in Roth ac
- On pull-back, another TRMD nibble (stake returns to similar size
- Decided to lock in gains in taxable ac - closed out COHR.
02/13
Wow! Things are brewing well @ Dutch Bros (BROS) - bounced nicely today. Realized some BROS gains in the Roth ac.
The recent Roth ac shipping ideas trim worked well, especially INSW. May consider rebuilding a Roth ac stake.
HIMS also got a nice bounce today - up 27%
Trimmed VERI in taxable ac - gain this time.
Added to LULU in Roth ac.
More TRMD in Roth ac
02/14
Quiet Cupid day - nothing that inclined me to say, “I would love to own some XYZ” today. In the end, I felt okay with replacing some of my INSW in Roth ac. And price kept dropping. Well, at least it validates the decision to sell two days prior.
Market had no love for LULU - whacked significantly. That I nibbled on LULU the previous day makes it a little more disappointing. While skimming for news, I noticed that LULU had a shelf filing in late Jan 2025. Maybe that had something to do with it?
Plans, plans … still savoring that BROS bounce. And one of these days, I really have to test one of the products. Since I realized some nice gains – I should do it soon. Life is short and costs may go up 