Q1 2025 (New Year)

Happy New Year!

I actually arrived back in the United States two days ago (12/31) after a long 15.50 hour flight with 4.5-hour terminal transit, and a final 1 hr flight – long, long day. Had not really been prioritizing the self-managed port in closing out the year. Port ended the year positive. But, it (single digits) trailed the major indices significantly (double digits). The shipping basket decline in Q4 2024 was a major factor. But, not the only factor. Not locking in gains on QCOM or CELH were other major factors. But that was 2024.

I am in 2025 now. That means a reset to the starting point. There will be trades today and tomorrow (Jan 2 and Jan 3) to kick things off.

4 Likes

01/02
Kicked off the first trading day of 2025 with some trades (additions only)

  • Added to ABEV in taxable ac
  • Added to GSM in taxable ac
  • Initiated VSH in Roth ac
  • Added to NVDY in taxable ac
    A good day for liquid gas, and not just the shipping side. Progres for GLNG with Kosmos Energy indicating the GTA field has delivered gas to the FLNG Gimi- reduces the uncertainty on COD time-frame. Good bounces from LPG, FLNG, BWLP.
    Dividends piled up the last two weeks of Dec 2024 and allowed the income to blow way past expectations - that’s even with significant shortfalls from IEP, AY, etc. Will have to work out plans for dividend expectations in 2025.
1 Like

01/03

  • First shipping-related trade was a FRO nibble in taxable ac.
  • Later, added to GCT position (taxable ac)
    As I think about 2025, I am generally adjusting my expectations for the shipping plays to be 5% yields. I realize with the price haircuts some shipping names took the last four months of 2024, this isn’t as challenging for some names e.g. TRMD, LPG, FLNG. Maybe I adjust some names e.g. TRMD, to be 5% yield on cost. With a name like FRO - who knows? Q4 2024 (paid in Q1 2025) might be disappointing. But a small change could be helpful for the 2025 quarters. TEN-PrE - small, but I leave alone with a higher yield.
1 Like

01/06
First sell in 2025. Got a little lucky on this one. Since it is a new year, decided it was a good time to reset my shipping basket. There are at least a couple of ideas where this makes some sense. LPG is one such case. LPG shares bounced earlier in the day and that’s when I placed my sell order. It filled. About 45 min later, shares retreated. Timing and luck, not any foresight.

Added to CELH in Roth ac
Added to BRK-B in Roth ac

[Edit: Only sold a portion of my taxable LPG shares. Figure it might be easier to track wash transactions, if I am allowing myself that possibility.
In the last hour, added to my BEN stake ]

1 Like

01/07 - 01/08
Since the new year has started and I did very few transactions after mid Dec 2024, a good chance to make changes early in the year.

  • On FRO bounce, trimmed FRO shares in taxable ac. (Gains - no wash, so far)
  • Decided to clean out CLCO. May wash a portion of the transaction.
  • Added to VSH in taxable ac
  • Another TGT nibble
  • Tanker names got a bounce on 01/07/25. Giving some back today.
  • More ENTG in Roth ac

1/10
Another nice tanker bounce day.

  • Opted to dump more LPG on the bounce (in taxable ac)
  • Added to INSW in taxable ac
  • Added to NVDA in Roth ac
  • Added to GSM in Roth ac

Why the second LPG trim? Sure, it isn’t the only candidate that’s taken a dive since I acquired my stake. There are a couple of factors, but I think the biggest one is the irregular dividend payout means it is subject to adjustment. While a lower dividend is also likely from other shipping entities e.g. TRMD, INSW their set-up is slightly different. TRMD bases its payout on cashflow, so I think Q4 being a lower payout is already built into their lower price. INSW already has a fixed payout + irregular payout.

I discover last week that a SeekingAlpha buddy reached his goal. “Integrator” had set himself a goal of growing a portfolio from $275K to $1M in 10 years. He accomplished the goal with a whole year to spare.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742864-project-1m-end-of-a-journey-with-mission-accomplished

Although I had followed only the last 2.5 years of the journey, I still found his picks and decisions quite interesting. He was generally a buy-and-hold type investor, so there wasn’t a lot of churn among his picks. Maybe someone will try something similar

1/13 - 1/17
Shipping misbehavin’ again, so just some smaller moves

  • More ZIM in taxable acs
  • Washed some of LPG shares from week 1
    Then looked at other stuff to clean up or reset
  • Trimmed ENTG in Roth ac on bounce
  • More TGT for taxable ac. Switched on DRIP
  • Trimmed LRCX in Roth ac
  • Trimmed CELH in Roth ac
  • Added to NVDY in Roth ac
  • Added to VSH in Roth ac