I should know better, but

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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I should know better, but I added to my largest, most overweight position SWKS today at roughly $80.00

I should know better, but I added to my second largest, also overweight position SKX today at roughly $27.39

I should know better, but I added to my small but risky position in BOFI today at roughly $94.65

Just couldn’t resist.

They may all crash tomorrow, so don’t follow me unless it all makes sense to you.

Saul

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Hi Saul,

I’m curious about the other side of you purchasing these stocks today. Assuming 100% fully invested and no margin usage, what did you sell in order to buy?

Were the stocks you sold gainers or losers for you and if you can explain why you sold what you sold it would be helpful.

I find it relatively easy to buy a conviction stock, but harder to sell others.

Any help is appreciated.

Thanks,
A.J.

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A.J.,

He recently sold a lot of BOFI from the speculation, and likely has not invested all of it yet.

Legoson

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Another very damning BOFI article on SA:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3672236-bofi-boiler-rooms-ba…

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Same here on SWKS. I still think this is one of the best companies out there, and it’s in one of the worst performing sectors, and the whole market thinks everything connected to AAPL is a one trick pony that has no runway ahead.

Sentiment - perfect contrarian indicator
Earnings results - still good
News today on AAPL suppliers the day before new ipdas go on sale - nice dip
Price action - 80 level seems strongly defended by buyers.

SKX and BOFI I don’t trust yet for adding more and getting back into, respectively. But watching closer

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Thanks everyone,
long SKX
watching SWKS
BOFI (don’t want to take the risk)

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I should know better, but I added to my largest, most overweight position SWKS today at roughly $80.00

I should know better, but I added to my second largest, also overweight position SKX today at roughly $27.39

I should know better, but I added to my small but risky position in BOFI today at roughly $94.65

I think those are good bets. I think SWKS is the safest of the three, in terms of valuation and certainty of future business results.

I think SKX is the second safest of the three, but I would be concerned about continued weakening of the USD. Most of SKX’s growth in overseas, and if the USD declines further then this will be a continued headwind for SKX. The main reason for a possible continuation of the USD dollar strengthen is a) QE by Europe, Japan, and China, and b) interest rate rises in the U.S. Could the EUR/USD fall from 1.10 to 0.85 during 2016 (with other currencies showing similar percentage declines versus the USD)? I think to could be possible. If so what would be the impact on SKX earnings over the coming year? Wild guess: maybe a 30-40c EPS drag over the entire 2016 year???

Chris

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I think SKX is the second safest of the three, but I would be concerned about continued [weakening] strengthening of the USD

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$USD

You are correct that the dollar is high and there is a race to the bottom going on. This adds to the cycle of weaker prices in commodities, which really hurts the Emerging Markets. However, I think and hope the dollar is back at the top of its range and may “only” hold here. Sure the Fed will raise soon, but a very small raise which probably already reflected in the bond market. So…not quite as worried as you about SKX.

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