We are at the crossroads



Charts are the $spx first a five year then a six month chart.

We are at a crossroads.

The W is in. We MIGHT see a rally from here. Would not surprise me. The Spy is oversold.

The question is would any rally be short lived? Would this be the end of the down market and a good entry?

The news stories are positive on US employment, to a degree US inflation is falling, the US recession is shallow, China’s inflation is not as bad, China is going back to work, and China can stimulate her economy.

At the very least for two days in here the market is doing well.

The divide in this possible rally is if bad financial news comes out of China.

The US can actually rally from here no problem if China does not shake the foundations of the global financial system.

The news is upbeat.

That can change in less than two minutes at any time.

You can miss getting in nice and low right now or your can get clobbered if all hell brakes loose should the banks get roiled.

We do not know yet.


Not until the Feds say interest rates have peaked and they begin reducing rates. And that implies until inflation decline is real. And maybe hits Fed goals.

Until then its a traders market. Gains are likely to be temporary.



I tend to agree with you.

I think from what you are saying you will over wait to see.