Live presentation and product launch in China https://www.thetradedesk.com/reachchina-live-d-en/p/1
My notes so far:
Jeff Green:
Marketing Campaigns focused on helping us understand personal side of China, not just the massive numbers
China Opportunity:
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Today, second largest middle class in the world (only 12% of Chinese population is middle class)
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70% estimated to be middle class by 2029
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today china and US make up 40% of world economy
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China is 1/2 the size of US in ad spend but growing at 2X the rate
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Only 15% of TTD’s rev is international, TTD believes international rev will be 51% eventually (check if he said china/asia rev is to be 51%)
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Data generated in China never leaves. Can be a challenge for companies who have lots of data in China
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Often times, fashion brands 60% of revenue from china, but 30% of advertising there
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JEff believes that’s because there’s no company to leverage
today TTD is launchin a brand that enables brands outside of china to bring spend into china
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Everything has to be replicated in China - totally different internet because it’s behind a firewall
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All creative submitted to the government and registered. They have to present it all to the government for approval and TTD is doing that and that’s what they will do for other companies
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TTD also building partnerships
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“You have to bring something new to be successful in China”
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110% agree with TTD being biggest position. This is now 45% of my portfolio. I bought an extra portion thinking I would trade it for the pop and ended up keeping it because I didn’t want to pay taxes. I know it is not smart investing but I have overall been very lucky killing the market. In this case my strategy is to start selling TTD next year as it will be a capital gains rate plus I think I will be retiring when I should be in a lower tax bracket.
Anyways enough about me. I believe that TTD is a true game changer and disruptor and market leader. Not at all like Criterio. Being the honest broker in this field gives it a huge advantage. Also, I think with what the European Union is trying to do with the GOOG/FB monopolies will be a very big opportunity for TTD. Finally, I think advertisers are going to be asking the “walled gardens” to let them have/use some programmatic advertising, ala Roku.
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A little perspective. I was looking into starting a business in China in 2011. At that time the middle class was estimated as 5% of the population. A mere seven years later (I assume the numbers provided are 2018 at best), the estimate is more than double that.
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I like TTD a lot, but I’m not sure I’d ever be comfortable with 45% in a single stock. If you have 20% in a mega-winner, that’s all you’ll ever need.
While I think this is very impressive company, revenue and profitability of any business in china dilutes in a big way… I am not familiar with advertisement business but my experience is no business is immune to low price environment.
Also it is one thing to have large (in number of people) middle class and another thing to have large (in $ value) middle class…
I wouldn’t expect TTD to replicate US success in $ terms in china any time soon…
This is very impressive move by TTD and I am long China… just dont think I will ever go to 25% or 45% of the portfolio… good luck to those daring people!!
I just finished reading “The Most Important Thing” by Howard Marks of Oaktree. He makes some really good points about not taking too much risk. My stocks have never kept me up at night, even during the recent 20 percent haircut. But my biggest holding is about six percent. For those of you who have not read it, I highly recommend it.
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