The Ukrainian military could be on the cusp of pocketing Russian troops in Izyum. Should the capture Borova and Lyman there is but one significant two lane east-west road linking Izyum to Russia. If the Russians don’t manage an organized withdrawal or an immediate reinforcement of Borova and Lyman, the retreat will quickly transform into a country lane clogging rout that may lead to the capture and destruction of the Russian forces in Izyum. This is a rapidly unfolding disaster for Putin and the Russian military.
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Ukrainian officials said on Saturday that their troops had retaken the city of Izium, a strategically important railway hub southeast of Kharkiv that Russian forces seized in the spring after a bloody, weekslong battle.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/11/world/ukraine-russia…
Wendy
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So far, the 3rd leg of power in Russia (FSB, the others being military and oligarchs) has remained staunchly behind their brethren, Putin.
However, military defeat does not bode well for Putin’s health.
This clearly illustrates the weakness of authoritarian rule versus democracy. In authoritarian rule, your life is in danger if you don’t tell the leader exactly what they want to hear. In a democracy, careers are made exploiting a leader’s shortfalls.
And within a democracy, leaders who surround themselves with different points of view are usually stronger (think Team of Rivals) than leaders who surround themselves with sycophants.
10 brains will almost always come up with a better solution than 1 brain.
AW
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He was just a comedian…who is laughing now?
Dissent spreading
Several elected officials in Russia have been summoned by police after they called for the impeachment of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a rare display of dissent in the country, local deputies from the Smolninskoye municipality in the St. Petersburg area appealed to the Russian Duma to impeach the President, for what they called crimes of high treason.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/09/europe/russia-officials-f…
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10 brains will almost always come up with a better solution than 1 brain.
Explain that to central planners like The Fed!
The Captain
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10 brains will almost always come up with a better solution than 1 brain.
Explain that to central planners like The Fed!
‘A committee is a life form with six or more legs and no brain.’ - R. Heinlein
‘To assess the intelligence of a committee, divide the IQ of its stupidest member by the number of members.’ - R. Heinlein
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Explain that to central planners like The Fed!
They are not central planners.
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‘A committee is a life form with six or more legs and no brain.’ - R. Heinlein
I mostly agree.
But the example I gave (Team of Rivals) was definitely NOT a committee. It was a smart, experienced, and competent leader getting honest (and mostly differing) input from a variety of smart, experienced, and competent staff.
AW
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10 brains will almost always come up with a better solution than 1 brain.
Explain that to central planners like The Fed!
The Captain
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I hate it when people make simple minded statements like the above.
America’s founding fathers created a Constitution and debated all the wording in the document before signing it. There would be no America with that Constitution.
Jaak
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There would be no America without that Constitution.
Jaak
6 Likes
Ten brains better than one?
Under certain circumstances, no!
See “The Extraordinary Madness and Folly of Crowds”.
But under other circumstances, yes!
There’s the experiment run several years ago that had people guess how many marbles were in a jar.
Consistently, the number representing the average of all guesses came closer than most of the individual guesses.
See James Surowiecki, “The Wisdom of Crowds”
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See “The Extraordinary Madness and Folly of Crowds”.
See James Surowiecki, “The Wisdom of Crowds”
Two very interesting books!
There’s the experiment run several years ago that had people guess how many marbles were in a jar.
Consistently, the number representing the average of all guesses came closer than most of the individual guesses.
The crowd often referred to as Mr. Market is one such crowd. When individuals claim that a stock is ‘dirt cheap’ or ‘discounted to infinity,’ they more often than not are proven wrong. While I started out as a price chart skeptic in time I came to realize that charts are the visualization of “The Wisdom of Crowds.”
The Captain
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I came to realize that charts are the visualization of “The Wisdom of Crowds.”
I came to the same conclusion (but you’ll never convince a fundamental analyst of that).
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