Just call me BILL - Guidance Review

As we approach Bill.com Holdings Q1’23 Earnings report on November 3, i am reviewing guidance from last earnings report:

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Part of the reason for the 15% pop after the last earnings report was an improved outlook as they are guiding to be profitable on a full-year basis for the first time.
CEO and Chairman Rene Lacerte commented on their expanding platform,

" We significantly expanded our platform’s solutions and extended our reach to serve customers ranging from sole proprietors to mid-market companies."

Analysts Upgrades

  • solutions offer ‘deflationary’ benefits to drive operational efficiencies,” according to an Oppenheimer analyst

  • While a Jefferies analyst commented that BILL’s “strong, durable organic growth and burgeoning leverage justify a premium valuation.”

  • A William Blair analyst said that BILL is poised to keep seeing strong growth. “We also expect incremental opportunities for Bill.com to add value for customers as Divvy and Invoice2go integrations continue…”

  • Morgan Stanley calls BILL “A compelling value proposition, differentiated go-to-market strategy through direct sales, accounting partnerships, and financial institution partners…”

23 analysts list BILL as a BUY. ;^)

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Outlook

FY23 Guidance is for $955.5M - $973.5M
This is a YOY Total Revenue Growth of 49% - 52%
Q1 FY23 Guidance is for $208.0M - $211.0M
This is a YOY Total Revenue Growth of 76% - 78%

Here are the reported YoY Total Revenue Growth rates for the past year.

 Q4'22    Q3'22    Q2'22    Q1'22  
 151%     182%     197%     164%

In the past year, BILL has guided YoY total revenue growth 15% to 35% lower than actual reported growth.

So even if we grow the Q1’23 Guidance by 30% the trend seems lower.
if i did my math right

Here is where guidance turns positive in Q1’23 for the first time
Non-GAAP net income $5.5M - $8.0M
Non-GAAP net income per share $0.05 - $0.07

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And they have adopted a new handle… just call me BILL

So it will be an interesting report to see how those potential shortfalls evolve as it translates to becoming profitable.

Best, kevin c
long of BILL
please click on my screen name for disclosed holdings

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