Low-hire low-fire job market

I remember well the anxiety of searching for a job. It’s particularly bad in a slow job market when young people are trying to get their foot on the first rung of the career ladder.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/business/economy/college-graduates-job-market-hiring.html

Young Graduates Face the Grimmest Job Market in Years

Artificial intelligence could reshape work, but for now a low-hire, low-fire labor market is the main impediment for young people seeking employment

By Sydney Ember, The New York Times, March 24, 2026

This is the worst spring for young degree holders since the depths of the pandemic…

Although A.I. may be replacing some entry-level jobs on the margins, there is little evidence it is the main culprit — at least not yet. Rather, many economists believe employment challenges for young people with college degrees stem more from the “low hire, low fire” dynamics in the labor market.

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Job openings have been trending down and are below prepandemic levels even as layoffs have remained low. A result has been a broad hiring stasis among employers that has hurt all new entrants to the labor market, a group that includes young workers with college degrees — and those without them…

Young workers tend to suffer more during economic downturns, in part because companies become less willing to hire inexperienced, entry-level employees. …

Since the 1970s, the share of older workers in the labor force, particularly in private-sector white-collar jobs, has grown as life expectancy has increased and Americans have worked longer…[end quote]

A job in an iron foundry is physically demanding. But many white-collar jobs benefit from experience and there’s little physical wear and tear. Older people in good health can work well beyond conventional retirement age if they want to.

The unemployment rate is still low due to many immigrants leaving the U.S. The ratio of unemployment to job openings has shifted over the past few years.

Wendy

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I am looking forward to March’s Challenger, Gray, and Christmas report due the first Friday in April. It is a better measure than the government report that day. The government report uses a department model. The raw hiring numbers have been awful for January and February. The Challenger hiring number for January was the worst on record, with 5306 hirers.

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I think the job market is like real estate. Instead of location, location, location, it is skill, skill, skill. No demand for a pre-Columbian underwater basket weaving degree but trades can’t be filled fast enough.

My nephew is seriously looking at trades of some sort and recently took a tour of this place. Some of the people graduating have jobs lined up from the Smithsonian to the Louvre to just about anywhere else in the world. Almost makes me want to attend.

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Thomas Sowell wrote about the unhirable elites over three decades ago.

The Captain

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Before even graduating from high school, every student should read this essential guide to the future job market, built by the government from the data in tax returns.

If it had been available in 1974 I would have gone into Materials Science instead of Chemistry.

Wendy

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