I saw a major drop in the port here Friday, 1/21.
Have some general ideas of what was behind it, but not enough to explain finishing the week at -12%.
Surprised that there’s not a peep on the board. Did anyone else see >10% loss for the week?
Comment?
Surprised that there’s not a peep on the board. Did anyone else see >10% loss for the week?
As noted here before, the markets run on hype and hysteria, not fundamentals.
I was down 2.5% last week. Not concerned about short term wiggles, as long as the dividends are covered, and everything I hold pays a divi.
Steve
I think we are hoping for a bottom one of these days. Until then we are looking down a cliff. Not pleasant to talk about. A good time to take that long anticipated vacation (to someplace safe).
Wake me when its over!!
Of course there will be plenty of buying opportunities when the bottom finally gets here.
I was down 2.5% last week. Not concerned about short term wiggles, as long as the dividends are covered, and everything I hold pays a divi.
Steve
Steve-
Dividends are nice. Always. (And, as you say, they are covered!)
But, comma, >-10% is NOT a ‘wiggle’.
(The stuff I’m holding, half pays a modest dividend, but the primary attraction is the opp for price appreciation.)
After all is said and done, I’m still seeing >40% CAGR on over half the port, and that’s nice. And I should be happy, not complain. And I know, that was then, but this is now.
i.e. Does anyone think the market might actually be doing the slow glide slope into the Okefenokee Swamp?
And then, if one bails, how does one know when it’s time to get back in?
Been facing these kinds of questions for 50 years now; maybe someday the lights will go on.
The trend lines usually do quite well at telling you after a bottom has occurred. Of course, false bottoms and double bottoms are very possible.
It comes down to taking the leap when the charts indicate it. But realize it is not without risk.
As to Okicnokie Swamp as in the DJIA going to zero, I don’t think so. PE of the S&P 500 might fall to 16 or so–down from a lofty 22 or so.
Stocks are worth whatever someone is willing to pay for them. They do have value. Some think they have been overvalued. Maybe too much money chasing too few good shares.
Maybe too much money chasing too few good shares.
More like too much money chasing anything with a balance sheet? Until the Fed finally drains all this “liquidity,” we won’t have reliable price discovery in stocks or bonds.
And then we find out whose balance sheets are legit, and whose are just coconut shell bikinis.
Remember the markets got a bit carried away on the tsunami of free money.
Now the Fed is focussed on inflation … that is history … 3rd January valuations were an anomaly not likely to be repeated until the next Fed pivot … Right now “Don’t fight the Fed”.
I don’t track weeks, down -15.2% YTD. I’ve been expecting it since early November.
The Captain
have cash, will buy!
Surprised that there’s not a peep on the board. Did anyone else see >10% loss for the week?
We are down about 4.5% YTD. We’ve been expecting this which is why we are about 50% cash, not including real estate in that calculation. The challenge will be knowing when to throw money back at the market without catching falling knives.
We are in the early stages of retirement and only need about a 3% return to not touch principal for our needs. It’s about preserving capital for us at this point, rather than being aggressive with investments. Since we couldn’t read which way the market was going, we left half in the market, half protected.
IP
I think we are hoping for a bottom one of these days. Until then we are looking down a cliff. Not pleasant to talk about.
…
Of course there will be plenty of buying opportunities when the bottom finally gets here.
Which is exactly why we should be talking about it.
IP
The Captain
Have cash, will buy!
Ah, yes… great position to be in!
But then the question portends: WILL BUY WHEN???
So far this year my weeks are:
-7.5%
-1.5%
-7.6%
YTD: -17.4%, but the S&P is down only 10% or so, NASDAQ about 13%.
As of Monday morning down another 1.8%. I am getting close to my balance of January 4, 2021, erasing a 29% gain for 2021 entirely. I am down 25% from my all-time-high set in November.
I have been de-risking the portfolio, but clearly not fast enough. I’m continuing to do so. I’ve gone from unease to mild panic to firm belief that this is far from over.
We are in the early stages of retirement and only need about a 3% return to not touch principal for our needs. It’s about preserving capital for us at this point, rather than being aggressive with investments. Since we couldn’t read which way the market was going, we left half in the market, half protected.
IP
Ditto here… well, maybe past ‘early’ stage, more like mid stage? (When is ‘end’ stage anyway?) We have the largest part of the total egg completely behind a firewall. (Not exposed to the market. PERIOD.)
So when I speak about the drops experienced last week, I was addressing the $'s ‘in play’, i.e. in securities, not inclusive of the bits behind the wall. If the $'s ‘in play’ were to go to zero (UNLIKELY), our day to day life style and bill paying lives would change zero. (Well, we might go around 24/7 sad-eyed and pooch-faced pretty bad, but that’s another story.)
PS to Denny: Agreed, not making too big a deal about ‘weekly’ changes. I don’t, but I do track and note “wiggles”. (Rode a lousy market period back in the '70’s right into the abyss. And I still remember having to pay off loans. Seared memories last forever.)
Just about everything added to the port in Dec 2021 & Jan 2022 seeing red. The lone idea standing quite stout is my BBB (Brazilian Beer Bet) aka Ambev (ABEV) – up slightly today 
But then the question portends: WILL BUY WHEN???
Many moons ago I had long discussions with Fool IcyWolf at the BMW Method board about when to buy. IcyWolf: ‘On the way up’ captainccs: ‘On the way down.’ Later I had to concede that Icy was right. But it depends on whether or not you have an income stream, if yes you can be more aggressive, if not you have to be more cautious.
Right now I have a quandary, Tesla will report earnings on Wednesday after the close. I think earning will outperform and TSLA should really bounce back but, if guidance is less than sterling, in this market that could be an additional haircut like Netflix just got.
So… not today…
PS to Denny: Agreed, not making too big a deal about ‘weekly’ changes. I don’t, but I do track and note “wiggles”. (Rode a lousy market period back in the '70’s right into the abyss. And I still remember having to pay off loans. Seared memories last forever.)
Buy only stocks that will bounce back and have enough cash reserves to outlast the crash!
The Captain’s
cop out!
Buy only stocks that will bounce back and have enough cash reserves to outlast the crash!
The Captain’s
cop out!
LOL.
Reminded me right away of the quote attributed to Will Rogers:
“Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”
I think we are hoping for a bottom one of these days.
One of my favorite old fashioned happy (because it denotes minimal danger of hitting a reef or running aground) nautical expressions is “No Bottom with this line”; that is what a crewman at the bow of a boat yells when, having thrown a leaded line far out front, the line swings freely back to him showing that the lead hit no bottom.
It doesn’t mean bottomless. It just means that the bottom cannot be sensed with the means available.
I say No bottom with this line!
David fb
It looks like the Nasdaq is trying to put in a floor since noon, but we’ll see what happens at closing.
It looks like the Nasdaq is trying to put in a floor since noon, but we’ll see what happens at closing
If so, my floor help came with solid joists by TTD @ +10% for the day.
(TTD is my most volatile; we’ll see what tomorrow holds.)
Now the Fed is focussed on inflation … that is history …
Is the Fed really committed to decisive action? With the ECB apparently focused on providing a continued safe haven for overdebted corporate and nation zombies, is the Dollar the place to be?
Jan 26
The European Central Bank has no need to fundamentally change its assessment of the inflation outlook or accelerate policy tightening, according to Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus.
Euro-area monetary policy can’t be compared with the U.S. or other jurisdictions “because the economic situation is different,” the Lithuanian central bank chief said in an interview. That means an increase in interest rates is far from being on the ECB’s agenda, even as the Federal Reserve prepares for a March hike. …
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-outlook-no-reason-e…