We now have 49 posts on a thread about market timing and several secondary threads besides, on a board that is meant to be about DISCUSSING INDIVIDUAL STOCKS. I know that I contributed too, but it’s time to get back to this boards imperative which is stock discussions. There are other great boards for technical analysis.
It’s been an enlightening discussion but it’s time to move on and I’D APPRECIATE YOUR COOPERATION.
Thanks,
Saul
I propose that we let the free marketplace of ideas determine what is getting discussed as opposed to rules and regulations.
If a topic is not interesting, it will die a natural death due to lack of interest.
Well, dovbgood, the problem with that approach is that people may find interesting topics which are not within the purpose of the board. Politics comes to mind. TMF, like most such places, is subdivided into a large number of boards so that people interested in a particular topic can find discussion on that topic and not have to wade through a large amount of discussion which is uninteresting.
Now, personally, I find this discussion of timing relative to the general market to be interesting … and relevant to one’s decisions or strategy on individual stocks so I don’t find it off topic. Saul, however, seems to think it is and this is, after all, Saul’s Investing Discussions.
If we aren’t going to discuss this here, I hope someone let’s us know of another board where this is on topic, hopefully not burdened by a bunch of other stuff.
“I find this discussion of timing relative to the general market to be … relevant to one’s decisions or strategy on individual stocks, so I don’t find it off topic. …If we aren’t going to discuss this here, I hope someone let’s us know of another board where this is on topic, hopefully not is burdened by a bunch of stuff.”
tamhas,
There are technical analysis and market-timing boards. But they are all but moribund for a bunch of reasons.
(1) TMF hates market-timers, because it shows their stock and option advice to be as untimely as so often it is.
(2) TMF hates technical analysis, because not a one of their writers knows how to use it skillfully.
(3) Investors who use market-timing and/or technical-analysis in an unapologetic manner are few anywhere in the general investing world, for reasons that really do go beyond reasonable topic guidelines for this board.
But a fishing analogy could be made. There fly rod guys, and there are spin rod guys. There are bass guys, and there trout guys. Not too many cross “club” borders or boundaries, because that’s not how their dads or uncles fished, nor how their buddies fish now. Same-same with investing/trading styles. What you grew up with or were trained to do is what you regard as “proper”.
Use the tools that make sense to you, and this is where the discussion really should end, though I’ll PM you with titles of a book or two you should read.
Arindam
For the record, I am HIGHLY SKEPTICAL of market timing, so unlikely to want to frequent a market timing board. I am also HIGHLY SKEPTICAL of most TA, so likewise unlikely to want such a board. What I found interesting about the discussion here was the diversity of opinion … i.e., this thing happens and what should we do about it, where the answer varied from nothing to various timing ideas to the inbetween stuff like shifting strategy a bit based on conditions.
I might note that you have dismissed with a wave of the pejorative stocks and companies which have been discussed at some length on this board.
Arindam,
I would try to help.
The Mechanical Investing Board is populated with math geniuses and have many discussions most people don’t have the horsepower to follow. They years and years of market timing articles on everything under the sun. They have a search tool to look through past board posts for old threads. I suspect there is years worth of info for even the most seasoned market timer.
For technical analysis, It is What it is, is a great board. All charts, Puddinhead posts charts over there and they are enthusiastic about that stuff.
LET’S QUIT MARKET TIMING AND GET BACK TO STOCKS…
DISCUSSING INDIVIDUAL STOCKS…
I’D APPRECIATE YOUR COOPERATION.
No need to yell, Saul.
You’ll likely get your way, which seems to be siphoning away any contributor who looks at things differently than you.
Heaven FORBID the idea of Technical Analysis be brought up.
Heaven FORBID anyone to have the audacity to call you a Trader.
Heaven FORBID that we try and Time the Market*.
You’ll likely get your way by taking the political step of silencing opinion, restricting opinion, and making all sorts of rules and regulations for YOUR board.
It’s one thing to restrict rudeness, unkind words, or posts written to entice a riot.
It’s quite another thing for the leader to bring down the dogmatic gavel and command what shall be followed.
How many people have you invited to leave this board?
Saul said, “There are other great boards for technical analysis.”
Well, sure there are. But the real discussion here wasn’t so much about technical analysis, as it was about macroeconomics, the world markets, the condition of the US economy, et al,- and the effect those things ARE HAVING NOW on “individual stocks” - and which, as it happens, technical analysis will show one.
Heaven FORBID we open the door to another angle, a bigger picture, some additional info other than what Saul is used to.
More to the point, the discussions were about some contributors wanting to help, wanting to add to the discussion, some points which may help others from losing money.
Now Neal has joined the cause by inviting a poster to leave.
"Arindam, why are you even on this board?..
Muddying up a board (any board) with off-topic approaches and responses ruins the experience for everyone else."
“Ruins” it? For “Everyone”?
Because he/she doesn’t march in lock-step w/you and this board and your particular mechanics of buying stocks?
There was nothing antagonistic in the poster’s comment; yet he gets sent out of town for a different “approach”.
Do we really want to be that close-minded? Dogmatic?
"I propose that we let the free marketplace of ideas determine what is getting discussed as opposed to rules and regulations.
If a topic is not interesting, it will die a natural death due to lack of interest."
Now there’s a level-headed, sane and sensible, democratic suggestion.
“Market Timing”
“Technical Analysis”
Saul, you time the markets and it’s tom-foolery to suggest otherwise.
For example, buying SKX or SWKS [or whatever of your picks] now, in this downtrend, is timing the market in the sense of buying at a low, versus another of your purchases that may have been executed higher, and your bet that the markets aren’t all that in trouble and you will have bought at a good low price.
Call it something else, as you will, but it is timing.
Why that word, “timing”, is such an awful thing, with such negative connotations to some, is hard to fathom.
Technical analysis isn’t so much about timing the market and buying at the absolute bottom/selling at the top, as it is about reviewing and being confident of the trend. Most TA users subscribe to the notion of not going against the trend, that the trend is your friend. Charts show a trend [up or down], or consolidation. It’s useful information.
Whether you are willing to admit it or not, you are a trader. You can espouse whatever you wish about your intent to hold [for years!], but you trade. You trade in and out of individual stocks.
Obviously, that’s not a bad thing [for your portfolio].
Yet it offends you intensely to be called as a trader.
Please, don’t answer this or explain; I no longer care.
“When the risk curve limb breaks off the tree I do not want to be near the end of the branch along with all the big heavy money.”
iborg,
You go gurl. Proud of you.
big big difference in making money or losing money as the man preaches.
http://tinyurl.com/z3oj3rn shorted the stock on or about October 22nd, 2015.
http://tinyurl.com/h5sxy5t shorted the stock on or about December 9th, 2015.
http://tinyurl.com/j4aqa6a bought on or about September 3rd, 2015.
http://tinyurl.com/z887mwm June 8th. Enjoying the ride.
The last two (2) are from Barchart.com
“Few analysts or advisors are willing to take responsibility for bad calls they’ve made and therefore, refuse to tell you to cut your losses before things get out of hand. It’s important to remember that investment advisors are in the business of accumulating accounts. That’s usually their #1 priority, whether they work for themselves or for larger firms.” Paul Rubillo CEO and Founder of Dividend.com who wrote “Be a Dividend Millionaire.”
"Buy-and-hold is what people say;buy-and-bail is what they do." JASON KELLY who wrote “The 3% Signal”
OT
OT posts should not be a problem if they are labeled OT. Just don’t read them. If you dislike the poster ,put him on ignore. The problem comes when thread starts on subject but then wanders off. In those cases I try to use OT at the start of the post.
Ignore enough differing opinions and posts and you might as well lock yourself in a closet and talk to yourself.
There are more than one way to look at buying and selling stocks. What works today my fail tomorrow. For instanceI can’t see how anybody can just ignore that B&H is document To to have failed from time to time.
there are those who say the whole concept of B&H is wrong
http://ritholtz.com/2012/11/is-there-a-better-way-to-allocat…
Me, I say that most of the time, it works. Especially for those who never lose a job, never have a catastrophic illness, never get disabled and of course never never panic. If you think those paper loses are’t real try borrowing money using them as collateral.Or selling them to finance your t cancer treatment because you accidentally let your policy payment slip your mind.
Still I think for most people it is pretty good approach. I use B&H myself ,but only for a portion of my portfolio.
Excellent idea.
The best way to do that is not to write a post telling people they shouldn’t “market time” and then get all upset when people disagree with you and write about why they “market time”.
Also, if you only want to talk about individual stocks, then you shouldn’t write a post about market timing which does not mention a single individual stock, and then be surprised when other people write posts which also do not mention any individual stocks.
I’D APPRECIATE YOUR COOPERATION.
Not a problem here. And I intend no snark with this post, only to point out that 1) it’s unfair to lay down rules which one person does not have to follow but everybody else does, 2) there is a “ignore thread” button at the top of the page so people can choose to, well, ignore a thread if they like, and 3) the topic does engender interest on several other boards where it may be followed with less shouting.
There is a current thread on the Retirement Investing board. Mungofitch talks about his 99-day rule on the Berkshire and Mechanical Investing boards from time to time. Wendy BG flashes a weekly “control panel”, a timing mechanism of sorts on the Macroeconomic Trends board, and there are others.
Cordially,
Goofy
(Market Timing since 1902, and always happy to follow the rules, so long as they are applied consistently.)
"But this is about a respectful and pragmatic approach to the community. Can you imagine if there was just one board in all of TMF and it was a giant free-for-all? It’d be utter madness, and next to impossible to keep up with the conversations you found relevant while easily ignoring the rest. We all only have so much time to spend on the boards.
Saul’s board is extremely busy. It’s already difficult to keep up with it. It’s only practical to keep posts as on-topic as possible, and publish off-topic posts to other boards where they are on-topic. TMF allows us to easily follow as many boards as we wish: everyone looking for content can easily find it if it’s published to a topical board.
There have been a lot of posts about market timing and technical analysis. Saul has made it very clear (in the past and again recently) that neither of these are encompassed by his approach. That doesn’t mean the topics aren’t interesting, or that no one finds the posts useful. But it does mean they belong on a different board where people who wish to follow and participate in those discussions can easily find them, and those who do not won’t have to wade through them trying to find the posts that are topical to this board."
Thank you Neil, I couldn’t have said it better!
And thanks to you too FrickNFool
"But more practically, this discussion board is a place to discuss what the name/theme of the board is - in this case, that’s investing in a way that is “Saul-like”. (IMO) Saul is well within his right, and his responsibility, to bring the discussions back on topic. Yes, I wrote and meant responsibility.
Other stuff I feel I need to say
* I don’t agree with 100% of Saul’s decisions. That’s ok, I don’t need to.
* I’ve seen an increasing number of posts that justify rudeness and disrespect as “a counter opinion”. We all need to be civil, don’t we?
* I disagree that someone should be chased off a board simply because they offer a contrary opinion.
* I agree, and am encouraged to see, that both off-topic long threads are killed.
* I agree, and am encouraged to see, that people who demonstrate a sustained inability to post “according to the guidelines” are invited to post elsewhere.
* I am in the camp that doesn’t have time to read every post anymore, largely because so many posts go astray from the heart of what the boards about.
* I understand that others disagree with me, and I’m ok with that.
* Lastly, I encourage Saul to reports posts that he finds objectionable, as that’s what I would do if I had my own board."
I have no idea how far this market will fall. Only that it is falling now , giving no evidence of a turn around, that most of systems have been on sell for a while, and that several of the monthly ones are likely to signal bear at the end of the month.
Just so I won’t be accused of mentioning no stocks , my SWKS is going down too.
If I had my choice I would rather have cash near a bottom than lots of depreciated stocks. Because at that time you don’t have to be a good stock picker to make real money …
I do not have Saul’s talent for knowing when to sell individual stocks . For without selling I have no money for buying.
when I see headlines like “Best Buys Now: Bargains Aplenty” it indicates there is still a lot of probably unfounded optimism
for fun look at
http://www.passionsaving.com/stock-valuation.html
and enter today’s SP 500 price
The calculator is based on"valuation" Most of the returns won’t even match future inflation.
Meanwhile today’s rally occurred just like I thought it would and faded just like I thought it would.
That being said, a more substantial weeks long rally is likely not that far off. Unless that changes the indicators, I won’t change my stance. So I am not buying any of the Saul stocks at this time.
There is no great rush, ships as large as world wide equity markets take time to turn.
I’m with you Saul,
Without you, this board would not exist.
I am here because of the strategy that you practice and teach.
There is plenty to talk about when studying investment ideas about promising companies.
This is Sauls board. If you don’t like it go elsewhere or start your own board.
Without Saul there is no Sauls Investing Discussions.
Frank
Now there’s a level-headed, sane and sensible, democratic suggestion.
The idea of having topical boards is not contrary to democratic process.
Let me put it another way. Let’s say this board was all about French cuisine and French cooking. And then I started posting all manner of things about Sichuan cuisine and Sichuan cooking. It’s not that people don’t like Sichuan food. And maybe even some of the people who enjoy French food also enjoy Sichuan food, but at best it’s a distraction from the board’s topic, the very definition of why the board exists. Probably there’s another board all about Sichuan food, and if not, I could always start one and then maybe post “Hey friends, I’ve started a board about Sichuan food, if you’re interested come join me.”
But laying down a rant about the French food board owner being akin to a dictator because he says that Sichuan food is OT is actually pretty rude.
Suggesting that taking advantage of price fluctuations in stocks that were selected using the specific methodology advocated by this board as being nothing other than a market timing discussion is disingenuous.
Many of the followers of this board are followers of Saul. That should come as no surprise given the board’s title: Saul’s Investing Discussions. The whole idea of having topical boards is to avoid a free-for-all of ideas from cluttering the discussions. These boards are not intended to be some democratic forum where we vote on the appropriateness of the posts. They are intended to be self-regulating such that the people who post understand the central theme of the board and use self discipline to adhere reasonably close to it.
At one time I read every post on this board, that has become impossible. I admit that part of the reason is that I have been distracted by personal health issues, but it is largely due to the fact that there is a lot of clutter which takes time to filter. I understand that a certain amount of discussion about macro-economic factors is probably relevant, but it is very much directly to the point when Saul reports precisely what actions he’s taking under these conditions. In fact, it is the very reason many of us read this board. We are here out of respect for Saul and are interested in learning from him. We (I) are considerably less interested in every readers take on the current conditions. And to be very candid, I have zero interest in technical analysis. I understand that it is based on herd psychology, which is a valid approach, but it’s not mine, not Saul’s, and not an appropriate subject for this board. There are other boards where it is spot on subject matter.
I think Saul has only asked that posters be respectful of the boards central theme. And if he didn’t say it elegantly or possibly not directly enough than I’m asking now. Please apply some self discipline and try to be respectful of the board’s central theme.
"The idea of having topical boards is not contrary to democratic process.
Let me put it another way. Let’s say this board was all about French cuisine and French cooking. And then I started posting all manner of things about Sichuan cuisine and Sichuan cooking. It’s not that people don’t like Sichuan food. And maybe even some of the people who enjoy French food also enjoy Sichuan food, but at best it’s a distraction from the board’s topic, the very definition of why the board exists. Probably there’s another board all about Sichuan food, and if not, I could always start one and then maybe post "Hey friends, I’ve started a board about Sichuan food, if you’re interested come join me."But laying down a rant about the French food board owner being akin to a dictator because he says that Sichuan food is OT is actually pretty rude."
Wow, Brittlerock, that is so perfect an analogy! I wish I could have written that!
Suggesting that taking advantage of price fluctuations in stocks that were selected using the specific methodology advocated by this board as being nothing other than a market timing discussion is disingenuous. "
I also thought it was silly.
Thanks,
Saul
I think Saul has only asked that posters be respectful of the boards central theme. And if he didn’t say it elegantly or possibly not directly enough than I’m asking now. Please apply some self discipline and try to be respectful of the board’s central theme.
Well that’s all very nice, — and then this: A thread titled “Ritht Now Is Why I Couldn’t Be A Market Timer”
http://discussion.fool.com/right-now-is-why-i-couldnt-be-a-marke…
That thread is started, out of the blue, by Saul.
Then Saul goes on - in this current thread - separately - to thank you for explaining how the board works, and that we shouldn’t talk about market timing.
I feel like I’m in Wonderland, where up is down and black is white.
Let me try to make it even simpler, without difficult comparisons like French food and Chinese cooking: “If you don’t want to talk about market timing, don’t talk about market timing.”
There is a corollary: If you do talk about market timing, expect others to discuss market timing, including possibly having different viewpoints.
OK?
including possibly having different viewpoints
Please be respectful of the rules of the board, sir.
If you have different viewpoints, well, you can just take them to different boards where they will be appreciated. This is a board for Saul’s viewpoints.
It is fine if you want to put your own spin on Saul’s viewpoints, or elaborate on them or flesh them out. But if you want to have your own viewpoints, why not go open your own board? That is what Saul did.
Or you can go post on some of the crazy boards, like Political Asylum, where everyone seems to feel free to express whatever thoughts they have, which IMHO leads to anarchy. We are better served here by the orderly expression of uniform viewpoints.
Just sayin’,
HG
Goofy,
I don’t get it. Why are you trying so hard to destroy a board that has been a real benefit to so many people? (At least many people have posted how much the board has helped them). Is it that you’re jealous because you didn’t start it? Or because it has different ideas than yours? What is it? You must have some reason for trying to ruin the board.
Yes, since the board is entitled Saul’s Investing Discussions obviously one of the reasons people come here is to hear my opinions. Obviously I made the rules of the board. Duh… So why are you here railing and griping and complaining about it. If you don’t like the board, and my ideas, you certainly don’t have to be here. You say “I feel like I’m in Wonderland, where up is down and black is white.” If you don’t like the board, and my ideas, I’m not making you stay. There are obviously a lot of people who do want to be here, but, as you pointed out, there are lots of boards where you can go and post whatever you want.
The idea of having topical boards is very accepted at the Motley Fool, and is not contrary to democratic process. This one is about Saul’s Investing Discussions. When I say This is Why I Can’t Be a Market Timer, that’s not starting a discussion of market timing, it’s explaining why the topic of the board is as it is, and why it doesn’t include market timing. I’m sure you knew that.
To use Brittlerock’s analogy, if the topic of this one was French cooking, posts about race car driving, short selling, technical analysis, and even Sichuan cooking, might be interesting, but would be off the topic of the board. And constant attacks against the purpose, topic, and ethic of the board seem to just be an attempt to ruin a board which has been successful and where you are a guest. Maybe you don’t mean it that way, but that’s the way it comes across.
Saul
Saul,
Saul’s Investing Discussions is on the MF free boards why not set this board up on RB or SA? Participants would at least be paying to be on. John Sargeant’s board on options is on SA.
Might help!