http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/40-global-bear-markets…
the more global markets are synched the more likely the movement is not a random fluctuation I didn’t know Nigeria had a stock market…
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461 very well researched
momentum was the sole timing method used here - a 10 month simple moving average
conclusion - using this single tool momentum investing alone you will not see a lot of improvement in CAGR but will see much lower gut churning volatility. note that I use more sophisticated momentum measures plus other methodology and think can improve CAGR too.
Market timing as I practice it is NOT the same thing as what some call Technical Analysis, involving visual chart patterns, double tops descending trendiness , head and shoulders etc. Or any outset Candlestick thing.
And it does not preclude me from looking for individual stocks. Recently I presented to this board Berkshire Hathaway as being undervalued and prior to that Arcam.
While I agree that Saul method stocks should be the core to this board that does not preclude other related subjects. Because to anybody who bought these stocks near their peak (as I did with one) asking whether the general market was strong or weak might have saved them a lot of money.
If some people don’t like these comments, fine, ignore of individuals or even whole threads is only a click away. I posted here because the title of this thread is pretty obvious.