Summary: As we would expect, all the BearCatchers and most intermediate term signals are full Bull, after the strong market bullish move starting immediately after the October selloff. However, there’s evidence of a short term top warning; the source is two big reversal days in the last 2 weeks with flips in the advances/declines. It could be a (very) short term bearish trade opportunity, or it could be yet another piece of untradeable computer-driven market ephemera.
| WEATHERVANE (US MKT) | 10 | TOP/BREADTH | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEARS/TOP | BULLS/BOTTOM | AS OF | ||
| Intermediate-Term | ||||
| BearCatcher | Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows | Bull | 12/8/23 | |
| BearCatcher | SMA Slope, S&P 500 | Bull | 11/10/23 | |
| BearCatcher | Dying Bullish Euphoria comb. | Bull | 12/14/23 | |
| BC Summary | The Key | 0 | 3 | |
| Momentum, Int | # 26 week highs | Bull | 12/29/23 | |
| Momentum, Int | DMI | Bull | 12/22/23 | |
| Momentum, Int-Term | 10/50 Crossover | Bull | 11/9/23 | |
| Momentum, Int | PPO Weekly | Bull | 11/17 | |
| Momentum, Int | 26W / 52W | Bull | 11/10/23 | |
| Breadth, midterm | PAMA Naz 50 | Bull | 12/1 | |
| Breadth, midterm | Naz Bullish % | Bull | 12/15/23 | |
| Breadth, midterm | S&P PAMA 200 | Bull | 12/15/23 | |
| Breadth Thrust | Breadth Thrust | |||
| Correction Mode | >7% off last peak | Bull | 11/9/23 | |
| Timing, Seasonal | MACD on RUT | Bull | 11/2/23 | |
| Interest Rates | Corporate Bond Index | Bull | 11/10/23 | |
| Short Term | Top Warning | 6 | ||
| Momentum, ST | PPO Daily | Bear | 12/29/23 | |
| Breadth, short term | SP600 PAMA20 | Bull | 11/10 | |
| Breadth, short term | PAMA5D %OFF 21dh | Bear | 12/29/23 | |
| Top, short term | PAMA Divergence Highs | Bear | 12/15/23 | |
| Top | PAA Count | Bear | 12/18/23 | |
| Top | Recent Simple Top | Bear | 12/7/23 | |
| Top | Primary-Tech Divergence |
Link to last indicators post: (in which, in hindsight, the bottom indicators were firing appropriately) -
GTAA Indicators
| Asset Class | Signal | Last | Since | # wks | Top6 | To MA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US LC | IN | IN | 11/3/23 | 8 | X | 1.075 | 5 |
| US LC Momentum | IN | IN | 11/3/23 | 8 | 1.09 | 7 | |
| US SC | IN | IN | 12/1/23 | 4 | X | 1.10 | 2 |
| US SC Mom./Growth | IN | IN | 11/24/23 | 5 | X | 1.11 | 1 |
| For. Developed | IN | IN | 11/17/23 | 6 | 1.072 | 9 | |
| For. Dev. SmallCap | IN | IN | 12/1/23 | 4 | 1.059 | 8 | |
| Emerging | IN | IN | 11/17/23 | 6 | X | 1.071 | 6 |
| Real Estate | IN | IN | 11/29/23 | 4 | X | 1.103 | 3 |
| Foreign Real Estate | IN | IN | 11/29/23 | 4 | X | 1.121 | 4 |
| Total Bond | IN | IN | 11/29/23 | 4 | 1.04 | 12 | |
| 10Y US Gov | IN | IN | 11/29/23 | 4 | 1.04 | 13 | |
| Global High Yield | IN | IN | 1/6/23 | 51 | 1.06 | 10 | |
| Preferred | IN | IN | 11/3/23 | 8 | 1.063 | 11 | |
| Cash/ST | 1.032 | 14 |
US SmallCaps and Real Estate have exploded upward in the last 8 weeks with the flattening interest rate forecasts. As a result, a GTAA-4 approach would newly focus on US small caps, US smallcap growth, US REITs and ex-US REITs for the upcoming month. A GTAA-6 (moderate) approach would include US Large Caps (of course) and Emerging Markets (also newly strong since early November).
FC