Market Trend Indicators update - 1/13/23

Due to improving accumulation/buying behavior in the markets this week, my dashboard has swung to “Optimistic” with a +3 rating. As it did at the top of the last 2 bear-market rallies before those Fed/market makers fights went the other way - so be careful.

Of note:

  • Nasdaq new highs / lows swung to bullish at the close Friday
  • The 26w/52 week MA indicators went bullish on S&P & small caps (IWM) - what some called “the fourth Bearcatcher” back in the day
  • Bullish 10D/50D crossovers happened in the S&P and small caps (IWM)
  • short term indicators daily MACD and PAMA 5D swung to bullish.

(expand the below table. Pasting columns in from a spreadsheet appears to work natively in Disqus.)

BearCatcher Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows Bull 1/13/23
BearCatcher SMA Slope, S&P 500 Bear 4/29/22
BearCatcher Dying Bullish Euphoria comb. Bear 5/24/22
BC Summary The Key 2 1
Momentum, Int # 26 week highs 1/4/22
Momentum, Int DMI 1/13/23
Momentum, Int-Term 10/50 Crossover Bear Bull 12/16/22
Momentum, Int MACD Weekly Bear 12/23
Momentum, Int 26W / 52W Bull 1/13/23
Breadth, midterm PAMA Naz 50 Bull 1/6
Breadth, midterm Naz Bullish % Bear 1/13/23
Breadth, midterm S&P PAMA 200 Bull 1/13/23
Breadth Thrust Breadth Thrust
Correction Mode >7% off last peak Bear 1/14/22
Timing, Seasonal MACD on RUT Bull 10/17/22
Interest Rates Corporate Bond Index Bull 11/25/22
Leverage, Macro Margin Debt to GDP 9/1/22
Valuation CAPE<1sd historical?
Short Term Top Warning 1
Momentum, ST MACD Daily Bull 1/13/23
Breadth, short term SP600 PAMA20 Bull 1/6
Breadth, short term PAMA5D %OFF 21dh 1/13/23

My personal interpretation: the market makers bought the bet that the Fed is about to slow the rate of interest rate increases soon. This post does not in anyway constitute advice.
PS if you read this far, Tom Bowley at EarningsBeats generally says avoid this upcoming week of the month for buys due to pre-options manipulation reasons. FWIW.


Besides NH-NL flipping to bullish, the S&P 500 has also just crossed above its 200-day moving average - another bullish signal. According to the chart below, SPX is at 3,999 which is above the 200 dma of 3,983. So both NH-NL and SPX 200 dma are now bullish.