Due to improving accumulation/buying behavior in the markets this week, my dashboard has swung to “Optimistic” with a +3 rating. As it did at the top of the last 2 bear-market rallies before those Fed/market makers fights went the other way - so be careful.
Of note:
- Nasdaq new highs / lows swung to bullish at the close Friday
- The 26w/52 week MA indicators went bullish on S&P & small caps (IWM) - what some called “the fourth Bearcatcher” back in the day
- Bullish 10D/50D crossovers happened in the S&P and small caps (IWM)
- short term indicators daily MACD and PAMA 5D swung to bullish.
(expand the below table. Pasting columns in from a spreadsheet appears to work natively in Disqus.)
| WEATHERVANE (US MKT) | 3 | Optimistic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEARS/TOP | BULLS/BOTTOM | SINCE/Last | ||
| Intermediate-Term | ||||
| BearCatcher | Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows | Bull | 1/13/23 | |
| BearCatcher | SMA Slope, S&P 500 | Bear | 4/29/22 | |
| BearCatcher | Dying Bullish Euphoria comb. | Bear | 5/24/22 | |
| BC Summary | The Key | 2 | 1 | |
| Momentum, Int | # 26 week highs | 1/4/22 | ||
| Momentum, Int | DMI | 1/13/23 | ||
| Momentum, Int-Term | 10/50 Crossover | Bear | Bull | 12/16/22 |
| Momentum, Int | MACD Weekly | Bear | 12/23 | |
| Momentum, Int | 26W / 52W | Bull | 1/13/23 | |
| Breadth, midterm | PAMA Naz 50 | Bull | 1/6 | |
| Breadth, midterm | Naz Bullish % | Bear | 1/13/23 | |
| Breadth, midterm | S&P PAMA 200 | Bull | 1/13/23 | |
| Breadth Thrust | Breadth Thrust | |||
| Correction Mode | >7% off last peak | Bear | 1/14/22 | |
| Timing, Seasonal | MACD on RUT | Bull | 10/17/22 | |
| Interest Rates | Corporate Bond Index | Bull | 11/25/22 | |
| Leverage, Macro | Margin Debt to GDP | 9/1/22 | ||
| Valuation | CAPE<1sd historical? | |||
| Sjuggerud? | ||||
| Short Term | Top Warning | 1 | ||
| Momentum, ST | MACD Daily | Bull | 1/13/23 | |
| Breadth, short term | SP600 PAMA20 | Bull | 1/6 | |
| Breadth, short term | PAMA5D %OFF 21dh | 1/13/23 |
My personal interpretation: the market makers bought the bet that the Fed is about to slow the rate of interest rate increases soon. This post does not in anyway constitute advice.
PS if you read this far, Tom Bowley at EarningsBeats generally says avoid this upcoming week of the month for buys due to pre-options manipulation reasons. FWIW.
