There’s a great post-game locker room tradition that developed after a win (with a team you may have become sick of hearing about the last 20 years).
So how do we feel about the best month in the Naz since 2001?! “Awww Yeaaahhhh!!!”
I wonder how many are feeling a sense of relief at the first solid up month for stocks in some time, and actually enjoying looking at their portfolios again. With inflation calming down and Mr. Powell doing as the IBs asked and slowing down rate hikes. Given the widely documented psychology of investors about feeling 1/2 as good about gains as losses.
GTAA indicators are below. The summary:
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Every asset class is now bullish / above its 6 to 10m MAs*. The top 4 remain foreign developed (FD) large cap, FD SC, US SC, and Emerging Markets. This is quite a pivot from the conditions at the end of December.
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My individual dashboard of signals including the 99D bromide has flipped to solidly “all in” as of today’s close. A 99D high was triggered on US ex-Naz and 2 FD and EM indexes within the last 2 weeks to 2 days. (indicators snapshot below GTAA).
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1/12 there was a relatively rare Zweig breadth thrust - first time in @4 years.
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Combined with widely publicized articles about short squeezes such as Short squeeze rallies may be firing up again - watch these stocks | Seeking Alpha
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What I’ve done: this is in no way investment advice. I am ~equally in top 4, total of @45%, with another 10% between LC momentum (for growth) and RE (for yield); the non-equity portion is mostly 7-10y treasury funds and preferred stocks. 4-7% yields are easy to come by and help fund “nearing retirement”.
Class IND/Last Since # wks T6 Sym Price MA Slope To MA Rank
US LC IN OUT 12/19/22 5 X SPY 416.78 390.59 Up 1.067 6
US LC Mom CHG IN 10/28/22 13 MTUM 141.26 142.41 Up 0.99 14
US SC IN IN 01/13/23 3 X IWM 198.32 180.00 Up 1.10 1
US SC Mom/G IN IN 01/13/23 3 X IJT 120.16 110.92 Up 1.08 4
For. Dev IN IN 11/11/22 11 X EFA 72.09 63.22 DN 1.140 2
For Dev SC IN IN 11/25/22 9 X SCZ 62.22 55.14 DN 1.128 3
Emerging IN IN 01/06/23 4 EMXC 51.23 48.47 Up 1.057 10
Real Estate IN IN 01/13/23 3 X VNQ 93.7 85.13 0 1.101 5
Foreign RE IN IN 01/06/23 4 RWX 29.21 26.10 DN 1.119 7
Total Bond IN IN 01/13/23 3 BND 74.57 73.43 DN 1.02 12
10Y US Gov IN OUT 01/07/22 55 IEF 99.67 98.56 DN 1.01 13
Global HY IN IN 01/06/23 4 JNK 94.63 89.77 DN 1.05 8
Preferred IN IN 08/31/22 21 PGX 12.77 11.93 Up 1.07 8
Cash/ST BIL 91.44 91.51 0.999 10
* - I use slightly shorter than 10M MAs and for RE it's 26weeks.
Indicators Dashboard
WEATHERVANE (US MKT) 10 All In
BEARS/TOP BULLS SINCE/Last
Intermediate-Term
BearCatcher Nasdaq NH/NL Bull 1/13/23
BearCatcher SMA Slope, S&P 500 Bear 4/29/22
BearCatcher 99D/DBE Bull 2/1/22
BC Summary: 2
Momentum, Int # 26 week highs 1/4/22
Momentum, Int DMI 1/13/23
Momentum, Int-Term 10/50 Crossover Bull 12/16/22
Momentum, Int MACD Weekly Bull 1/13
Momentum, Int 26W / 52W Bull 1/13/23
Breadth, midterm PAMA Naz 50 Bull 1/6
Breadth, midterm Naz Bullish % (n/a)
Breadth, midterm S&P PAMA 200 Bull 1/13/23
Breadth Thrust Recent 01/12/23
Correction Mode >7% off last peak Bull 1/14/22
Timing, Seasonal MACD on RUT Bull 10/17/22
Interest Rates Corporate Bond Index Bull 11/25/22
Short Term Top Warning 1
Momentum, ST MACD Daily Bull 1/13/23
Breadth, short term SP600 PAMA20 Bull 1/6
Breadth, short term PAMA5D %OFF 21dh 1/13/23
Top, short term PAMA Divergence Highs 12/10/21
Top PAA Count 1/26/22
Top Recent Simple Top 11/19/21
Top Primary-Tech Divergence