Maybe, the tide just turned - indicators

There’s a great post-game locker room tradition that developed after a win (with a team you may have become sick of hearing about the last 20 years).

So how do we feel about the best month in the Naz since 2001?! “Awww Yeaaahhhh!!!”

I wonder how many are feeling a sense of relief at the first solid up month for stocks in some time, and actually enjoying looking at their portfolios again. With inflation calming down and Mr. Powell doing as the IBs asked and slowing down rate hikes. Given the widely documented psychology of investors about feeling 1/2 as good about gains as losses.

GTAA indicators are below. The summary:

  • Every asset class is now bullish / above its 6 to 10m MAs*. The top 4 remain foreign developed (FD) large cap, FD SC, US SC, and Emerging Markets. This is quite a pivot from the conditions at the end of December.

  • My individual dashboard of signals including the 99D bromide has flipped to solidly “all in” as of today’s close. A 99D high was triggered on US ex-Naz and 2 FD and EM indexes within the last 2 weeks to 2 days. (indicators snapshot below GTAA).

  • 1/12 there was a relatively rare Zweig breadth thrust - first time in @4 years.

  • Combined with widely publicized articles about short squeezes such as Short squeeze rallies may be firing up again - watch these stocks | Seeking Alpha

  • What I’ve done: this is in no way investment advice. I am ~equally in top 4, total of @45%, with another 10% between LC momentum (for growth) and RE (for yield); the non-equity portion is mostly 7-10y treasury funds and preferred stocks. 4-7% yields are easy to come by and help fund “nearing retirement”.

Class 	   IND/Last	Since	# wks	T6  Sym	Price	MA	  Slope	To MA	Rank
US LC	    IN	OUT	12/19/22	5	X	SPY	416.78	390.59	Up	1.067	6
US LC Mom	CHG	IN	10/28/22	13		MTUM	141.26	142.41	Up	0.99	14
US SC	    IN	IN	01/13/23	3	X	IWM	198.32	180.00	Up	1.10	1
US SC Mom/G	IN	IN	01/13/23	3	X	IJT	120.16	110.92	Up	1.08	4
For. Dev  	IN	IN	11/11/22	11	X	EFA	72.09	63.22	DN	1.140	2
For Dev SC  IN	IN	11/25/22	9	X	SCZ	62.22	55.14	DN	1.128	3
Emerging	IN	IN	01/06/23	4		EMXC	51.23	48.47	Up	1.057	10
Real Estate	IN	IN	01/13/23	3	X	VNQ	93.7	85.13	0	1.101	5
Foreign RE	IN	IN	01/06/23	4		RWX	29.21	26.10	DN	1.119	7
Total Bond	IN	IN	01/13/23	3		BND	74.57	73.43	DN	1.02	12
10Y US Gov	IN	OUT	01/07/22	55		IEF	99.67	98.56	DN	1.01	13
Global HY	IN	IN	01/06/23	4		JNK	94.63	89.77	DN	1.05	8
Preferred	IN	IN	08/31/22	21		PGX	12.77	11.93	Up	1.07	8
Cash/ST						            BIL	91.44	91.51		0.999	10
* - I use slightly shorter than 10M MAs and for RE it's 26weeks.

Indicators Dashboard

WEATHERVANE (US MKT)		10		All In
		                       BEARS/TOP	BULLS	SINCE/Last
Intermediate-Term				
BearCatcher	Nasdaq NH/NL            		Bull	1/13/23
BearCatcher	SMA Slope, S&P 500	 Bear             4/29/22
BearCatcher	99D/DBE		                    Bull	2/1/22
BC Summary: 2	
Momentum, Int	# 26 week highs			        1/4/22
Momentum, Int	DMI			                       1/13/23
Momentum, Int-Term	10/50 Crossover		     Bull	12/16/22
Momentum, Int	MACD Weekly		             Bull	1/13
Momentum, Int	26W / 52W		             Bull	1/13/23
Breadth, midterm	PAMA Naz 50		         Bull	1/6
Breadth, midterm	Naz Bullish %	(n/a)		
Breadth, midterm	S&P PAMA 200		     Bull	1/13/23
Breadth Thrust	                             Recent  01/12/23			
Correction Mode	>7% off last peak		     Bull	1/14/22
Timing, Seasonal	MACD on RUT		         Bull	10/17/22
Interest Rates	Corporate Bond Index		 Bull	11/25/22
				
				
				
Short Term	Top Warning	1		
Momentum, ST	MACD Daily	        	Bull	1/13/23
Breadth, short term	SP600 PAMA20		Bull	1/6
Breadth, short term	PAMA5D %OFF 21dh			1/13/23
Top, short term	PAMA Divergence Highs			12/10/21
Top	PAA Count			                         1/26/22
Top	Recent Simple Top		                	11/19/21
Top	Primary-Tech Divergence			
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