McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective April 2022 offers a detailed demand outlook across key dimensions
Here are some key points in this exhaustive analysis of global energy trends.
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Oil%20a…
- The global energy mix is projected to shift rapidly towards power and hydrogen. Share of electricity and hydrogen in final consumption may grow to 32% by 2035, and 50% by 2050
- Renewables are expected to become the new baseload, accounting for 50% of the power mix by 2030 and 85% by 2050
- Oil demand could peak in the next two to five years. Historically, oil demand was growing by 1—2
MMb/d, half of which was through growth in road transport. While oil demand continues to recover
post-COVID-19 in 2022 and 2023, the trends are projected to change from 2024 onwards.
The primary driver for reduced oil demand for road transport is the continued uptake of EVs:
• Global EV sales grew 62% per annum on average in the last four years and by 96% in 2021 alone. EV sales in absolute terms increased from 2.3 million in 2019 to 6.6 million in 2021
• EV sales in Europe accounted for more than 20% of total car sales in 2021; US EV sales only
accounted for 5%, but doubled year on year
Alongside this, the use of oil in power and heat is decreasing. In the buildings sector, a ban on new
domestic oil heaters continues the decline in line with historical trends.
Much more good information in this report WRT all aspects of energy.
Jaak