53 years ago in a very different time.
The country for most of the last 53 years has become more and more reasonable.
As I said SA wants to be a global player. It is not like it can go to France saying how dare you be Christian.
Life is local with the nuts and global with the wisewo/men.
This means anyone near you can squabble about the prettiest of stuff. Globally we all need leadership to succeed.
The news has been reporting half of the population of Gaza is under 19 years of age, 40% are under 15.
Steve
Religious Jews have the world’s highest birthrate with about 15 children. Then comes the Palestinians with a similar birthrate. It is cultural for both. Very similarly cultural at that.
The Palestinians in the territories have been leaving. Note the Jewish population is rising faster. Some of that is also non-Jews in Israel.
This was always an issue. This was made at times as a threat to Israel.
Northern Gaza is closest to Tel Aviv. Since the attacks will never stop Israel strategically wants Northern Gaza closed off from all people.
There are no expectations for Hamas to sue for peace.
Some reports say the northern half of the strip, some say Gaza City, some say everything north of Wadi Gaza, which is in the southern burbs of Gaza City. There are settlements and farms on the Israeli side of the full length of the border with Gaza, so as long as any Hamas elements remain anywhere in Gaza, Israeli citizens will be within range.
So, are they channeling General Sherman, telling the civilians of Atlanta to get out of harm’s way? Or “ethnic cleansing”? Either way, it is going to be a disaster for those Million Pals, as there is no place, with housing, to go. It’s a pretty safe bet that, after an Israeli invasion, Gaza City will be uninhabitable. My dad talked of coming to towns during the war, where the buildings were so collapsed into the roads that the roads were impassible. Being an artillery unit, they leveled their 155 howitzers on the road and blasted a path through.
Steve
The real reason northern Gaza has to be evacuated is because there is massive warren of tunnels under that area where weapons are manufactured and stored. That entire complex has to be completely destroyed as part of eradicating Hamas. It’s impossible to completely destroy those tunnels with a million people living above it. It is Hamas that chose that particular location for their tunnels.
Do you have a link for this? Seems quite high.
The US Army was always looking for tunnel systems, had special units composed of men below average height, who could move around in tunnels better. But they never eradicated the VC, because the tunnels were a symptom, not a cause.
Steve
Sometimes you do stuff to relieve symptoms. Sometimes you relieve symptoms for long enough until the cure takes hold.
Zeihan has done the best informed thoughtful summary and speculation I have seen so far.
I am impressed by his POV. He summarizes the big picture succinctly and better than any other talking head I have tried to listen to. Then, after pointing out that the timing of the Hamas attack likely relates to potential Israeli/Saudi cutting a deal, he goes so far as to point out that the USA will (no doubt about it) make a serious attempt to rescue our citizens, and that attempt may begin with earnest talks with factions within Iran.
I am interested in the responses of the intelligent people on this board.
david fb
A few random things. The “Palestinian Authority” government on the west bank doesn’t really have any legitimacy. They haven’t had elections in years. From time to time, they may announce a date, some time in the future, for elections, but then think of an excuse to delay elections, more.
The nutters in the Israeli government seem to be channeling the Israeli talking points when Begin was in charge: “all of Judea and Samaria”, ie, all of the west bank, belongs to Israel. When the “Arty” deal was brokered between Israel and the Emirates, “Bibi” said the suspension of annexation of parts of the west bank, called for in the “Arty” deal, was only temporary.
As for the fall of the current Israeli government, as soon as the war is over, I am reminded of another massive intelligence failure, according to the official narrative, in spite of the FBI “threat assessment” that had the Attorney General stop flying commercial, and start using private planes in the summer of 2001, as if there was intelligence indicating a threat to commercial airlines. The POTUS in the summer of 2001 was not particularly popular: but leveraged the attack to juice his approval rating to one of the highest levels ever recorded, and take other actions, that would have been unacceptable without his sky-high approval rating, and the POTUS was elected to a second term.
If the Pals in the west bank are being largely cut out of the negotiations between Israel and other ME countries, the Pals in Gaza are being absolutely ignored, except when some rockets are shot into Israel. As the guy in the piece effectively said, the highest legitimate job you can aspire to in Gaza is to be chief inmate of the prison.
My assessment stands. the war will be leveraged into ethnic cleansing.
Steve
AW,
The figures are not broken out in simple Google searches. The figures are supported though in some abstract ways such as religious and cultural needs particularly after WW II.
Part of the problem with such a statement is for liberal Jews it is not true obviously…and there are some religous Jews tipping towards liberalism.
But the statement is true. The families are by far the largest in the world and are matched by the Palestinians.
Here is one better quote from Google
How big are Hasidic families?
Large family sizes
Hasidic Jewish people are known for having large families. 6-10 children is typical, and sometimes they have as many as 12 or more! This is another practice: reproduce as much as possible. It is considered a top rule which was commanded directly from G-d.Feb 20, 2018
Hasidic Jewish Rules - Ultra Orthodox Beliefs & Practices | Brooklyn Unplugged Tours.
Here this is a better way to see it even if the exact 15 is not fully broken out.
The first major target these arms would reach if a larger conflict in Israel were possible would be Tel Aviv.
Flyerboys,
I watched Z the last night also. My wife watches a more right leaning talking head, Steve Gardener.
It is pretty obvious that Z got it right. But there is a lot of push back from the far right to stay out of the conflict. You might call it the “America First” faction.
While this faction includes skin heads, it also includes Communists . It is becoming a belief of this coalition that there are no good nor innocent people including the USA, and there is a growing faction within the USA that believes the best way to deal with these problem is to stay out of it.
While Z makes the case that the USA must make a military attempt to get the US citizens out, I expect that what is becoming an coalition to stay out of affairs without direct consequence, I would call it “America First” will argue that the American Citizens were acting as Israeli nationals and living as Israeli nationals and the problem is an Israeli problem. This argument will probably get shouted down this time, but I expect it to gain traction over the years.
As I have a son that is a member of the CPUSA and a lot of family members that are far right. Some believe the religion that Israel must expel all of the Palestinians from all if the land originally given to the 12 tribes, some believe that what is going on is pure evil and refuse to watch. I do not have any White Supremacist in my social circle. But I suspect that they do not support the Israeli attack if for no other reason than it diverts weapons and money from the far right factions within Ukraine. (This last sentence based on very flimsy logic that I do not have deep understanding of so is subject to withdrawal. )
My point is, there is a broad coalition across the entire political spectrum to not support Israel in this war. It is weak, but it is growing. I do not think it has enough power to actually change politics at this time, but it will have consequences over the next generation of so.
Cheers
Qazulight
Do you have data on the size of that group?
DB2
Yes, where is the silent majority on the issue of support for Israel? Or Ukraine? I suspect 80% supports continuing to support both.
As a “thought leader” of a certain faction said recently “elections don’t work for us anymore”, as they carry on making policy that is at odds with the wishes of the majority of the population.
Steve
Why is Z saying there are dozens of different security groups in Gaza?
Because there are dozens of different Syrian tribes in Gaza. It is all Greater Syria. Palestinian a non-Arabic word is a force for a Greater Syria.
The Russians have done this sort of destruction to two different parties Ukranians and Chechnyans. If not more parties such as Hungary.
Ok. But voters do know what to do when elected officials make the wrong choice.
You can preach to the audience all you want. But they had better buy in – or else.
In the larger part, it depends on the traditions. Israel is parliamentary.
The conservatives had become less popular over time.
