More Bad Ukraine News from Wash Post…
Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield
Newly promised Western weapons systems are arriving, but too slowly and in insufficient quantities to prevent incremental but inexorable Russian gains in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, which is now the focus of the fight.

Ukrainian and U.S. hopes that the new supplies of Western weaponry would enable Ukraine to regain the initiative and eventually retake the estimated 20 percent of Ukrainian territory captured by Russia since its Feb. 24 invasion are starting to look premature, said Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, an adviser to the Ukrainian government on defense and intelligence issues.

But the odds against the Ukrainians are starting to look overwhelming, said Danylyuk, the government adviser.

200 Ukrainian fighter are killed every day. Assuming 4 wounded per KIA means the Ukraine are losing 1,000 a day from the front line. But equipment & ammunition shortages are more dire than manpower shortages.
Most of Ukrainian military equipment is former Soviet equipment. Eastern European NATO members has run out of spare ammunition to send to the Ukraine.
So the Ukrainians need to convert to Western weapons while fighting*.
And the bill for the equipment & ammunition is being paid by the US taxpayer. $54 billion so far according to NYTimes.…

The U.S. Army currently has 518 M777B2 systems, while the Marines have 481.
On April 14, 2022, the United States announced that it would donate 18 M777A2s and 40,000 shells to Ukraine. Since then, the U.S. has raised that total to 90 of the Marines’ M777A2 systems and 200,000 rounds of ammunition, including M982 Excalibur precision-guided munitions. In addition, Australia sent six of its 54 guns in late April, and on April 22, Canada sent four from its arsenal of 37 M777s.
Pleased with the initial performance of a howitzer whose qualities promise to offset the greater numbers of its Russian counterparts, the Ukrainians have asked friendly nations for more.…
Dozens of artillery systems supplied by the United States to Ukraine were not fitted with advanced computer systems, which improve the efficiency and accuracy of the weapons, ABC News has learned.
The Pentagon did not deny that the artillery pieces were supplied without the computers but said it had received “positive feedback” from the Ukrainians about the “precise and highly effective” weapons.

The Ukrainian have a defensive line at the Donetsk river. So far they have prevented the Russians from crossing it. If the Russians manage to breach the river, they could start to make rapid advances.
Can enough Western military equipment & ammunition arrive in time? Can the Ukrainians hold the line? If Russia breaks through the Ukrainian defense line:What will be the US response?
If the defense line is held:Will the West’s resolve hold?…
An Italian peace proposal was dismissed and French President Emmanuel Macron was met with an angry backlash after he was quoted as saying that although Putin’s invasion was a “historic error,” world powers shouldn’t “humiliate Russia, so when the fighting stops, we can build a way out together via diplomatic paths.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said such talk “can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it.”
Even a remark by former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that Ukraine should consider territorial concessions drew a retort from Zelenskyy that it was tantamount to European powers in 1938 letting Nazi Germany claim parts of Czechoslovakia to curb Adolf Hitler’s aggression.



Reports yesterday that the two sides are fighting to mostly a stale mate as far as territory gains or losses. That Russia is also running out of supplies, equipment and men.

As your reports are saying more equipment is on the way from the US.

The need of the WaPo to subjectivize this is interest.

As the Ukraine shifts to Western artillery as there is no more Soviet ammunition available, more problems arise.…
In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.

The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.
Board members may recall that NATO ran out of munitions during its Libya unilateral intervention.

Unfortunately, this is not only the case with artillery. Anti-tank Javelins and air-defence Stingers are in the same boat. The US shipped 7,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine – roughly one-third of its stockpile – with more shipments to come. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 missiles a year, though this number might ramp up to 4,000 in a few years. Ukraine claims to use 500 Javelin missiles every day.

Depleting NATO & US weapon & munition stocks for the Ukraine-Russia War could be risky if China makes move on Taiwan.
Also artillery manufacturing factories like semi conductor factories take time to build. And does an artillery wishes to make such an expenditure form a limited need for more equipment? Would increasing existing factories production to 24/7 be sufficient to supply the Ukraine? From where would the skilled labor supply come?

“We must prepare for the fact that it could take years,” Stoltenberg told the newspaper. “We must not let up in supporting Ukraine. Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, but also because of rising energy and food prices. ”

I question whether the Ukrainians or the Russians have the ability to conduct a war for years.
Methinks it boils down to 1)an industrial base war-West vs Russians.
2)How willing is the Russians & the Ukraine to sustain the increased casualty rate? The US tired of the Vietnam & Afghanistan Wars. So did the Soviet Union did also in Afghanistan. Is the current War different?


When a greater power is at war if the economy turns it is hard to make the stretch to continue to be aggressive.

The British were seeing the first industrial era depression in 1776. The colonists were taking advantage.

The west is stripping the Russians of their economy. Does not matter that Russia is doing that to Ukraine in the sense that Russia can not do that to the west. Unless we support Putin. Not going there.

In the next few years Ukraine will be taking advantage of Russia to join the EU, join Nato, get back all of its lands including Crimea.

The Chinese are taking a few notes. Some might not be too thrilling for China. This is a war where the US, Western Europe, Australia, India, Japan and S. Korea are not engaged in battle. Yet last I heard three weeks ago 14 Russian naval ships have been sunk by very low cost missiles. Reaching Taiwan got more distant.

The other note for China, the western countries have completely turned against the Russian economy. In other words for China to attack Taiwan is a binary choice. There is going to be nothing snuck over the plate where China captures Taiwan and we all go back to doing business. Any sort of “this is my property I am claiming no matter what” just became “I fully understand all will be forfeited if I do something stupid by the western economies”. This also means spending massively on arms can not be for use without expect to forfeit the communist party to a revolution on mainland China. Painting as we have to fight wont explain anything as all is lost economically.

How dependent is China on the west? At this point it is not clear. Making matters worse Xi is taking a financial system built on sheer crap and a crazy as always peg to the USD and putting it into a regression as if the Chine communist party will reclaim old glories prior to capitalism in China. A natural fall back as the financial system has to and is crashing. If most of the Chinese revert to dirt farming the Chinese wont be dependent on the west. Ironic way to get ready for war.


Depleting NATO & US weapon & munition stocks for the Ukraine-Russia War could be risky if China makes move on Taiwan.

Ukraine is a land war. Taiwan would be a naval war. Not a NATO war but a US/British Commonwealth/East Asia war!

The Captain

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