Xposts 🚨: Ukraine, Artillery, On Russian

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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:rotating_light::rotating_light::rotating_light::rotating_light::rotating_light: 24-hours ago I produced a thread on the Destiny Solutions board explaining how artillery was going to turn the tide in the Donbas region.

Tonight, just an hour ago and 24-hours after my first thread, I am reading Ukraine has taken back so much territory in Donbas that their mechanized artillery units are on the Russian border.

Ukraine has Russian troops in a “hammer” and “anvil” move, pushing from the North to meet their dug in troops in the Deep South. The Northern troops on the move with all this new modern artillery will be the hammer. The dug in Ukrainian troops in the South will be the anvil. The Russian troops in between had better make a run for the border while they can.

In these two threads, you’ll learn what America has airlifted to Ukraine, including an amazing new howitzer, the M777. The Army trained me as an artillery man during Vietnam. I had never heard of the M777 155mm howitzer, so I searched and found a youtube video which shows 8 men crews putting these lightweight howitzers, the most modern towed artillery pieces extant, through the motions.

Setup time for an M777 is 6 minutes. And the M777s only weigh 7,500 pounds and are digitally controlled for pinpoint accuracy. A youtube video I posted in this thread alludes to “smart munitions” that can also be fired from these howitzers without giving away how they work. (Have we sent Ukraine some of these munitions?)

Here is the first thread:

https://discussion.fool.com/very-good-news-for-ukraine-forces-in…

The second thread is one I posted 60 minutes or so ago.

In this thread you’ll see two amazing tweeted videos from Rob Lee on twitter which show a mechanized artillery unit from Ukraine destroying moving Russian armored pieces. If indeed these are artillery strikes, not drones, then this is game over for Russian troops on the ground who travel in armored vehicles. This would be a first use of artillery striking moving targets in such easy fashion.

Indeed, if this is proven artillery strikes of moving armored pieces, then it leads one to speculate about the “smart” artillery rounds used with such pinpoint accuracy. One tank explodes and I counted 7 seconds till a part of it finally fell back to earth. The precision and power of these rounds just make me shake my head. I counted about 10 direct hits of moving vehicles within 90 seconds. I watched the video 5 or 6 times and wondered, “How in hell does Russia not just wave the white flags now?” The accuracy of the strikes on moving targets tells me tank warfare is now a waste of men, money, and material.

In comments below Rob’s two videos, one person speculates the “smart” rounds are Ukrainian made, not American. He even shows a photo of said “smart” round from Ukraine.

Lastly, Forbes breaks the story of how Ukraine has moved so quickly in Donbas territory near Kharkiv that Russian troops are now caught between the aforementioned “hammer” and “anvil” move. Forbes also points out that not only can Ukraine attack from the North like a hammer, but they can also shell “holding areas” inside Russia.

My worry is Ukraine is moving so quickly on their counter-attack that their supply and logistics will not be able to catch up to them (think of Russia’s first 48 hours during the invasion). However, with superior weaponry which is so deadly accurate, Ukraine just might clear all Russian troops from Donbas as their victories mount within two weeks, instead of 3-4 weeks as analysts have speculated.

All of this can be found here in my second thread just posted about an hour ago:

https://discussion.fool.com/ukraine-fights-to-russian-border-351…

p.s. In my twitter thread #StandWithUkraine I linked to a Guardian story about the UK’s Defense Minister who gives the greenlight to any NATO country wanting to send Ukraine their old Russian Migs. At this moment, Ukraine is in control of 90% of its airspace. But you add some 30 more jet planes, and yeah, I could see Ukraine taking back Crimea as well.

https://twitter.com/peregreine/status/1523974578476924928

554) #StandWithUkraine #ArmUkraineNow #DefeatPutin
Britain would support and provide assistance to Poland or any other central or eastern European country willing to supply Russian-designed jet fighters to Ukraine, the defence secretary has said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/09/uk-support-…

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In the last 10 seconds or so of the video, it looks like the surviving members of the column are making a strategic advance to the rear.

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In the last 10 seconds or so of the video, it looks like the surviving members of the column are making a strategic advance to the rear.

What amazes me about that video is I don’t see any misses. I would expect maybe one in 20 shells to score a hit, with the rest tearing up the countryside. One hit is almost comical, the tank is hit just as it emerges from a cloud of smoke, then pieces of the tank fall back to ground around it. The men in that tank never knew what hit them.

The problem I see is, as the Ukrainians push south, rolling up the northern end of the Russian line, what is there to prevent more Russians attacking from behind the Russian boarder and flanking the Ukrainians?

Thing I noticed on the “news”, can’t remember if it was on NBC or ABC (the search for substantive news, rather than hype and hysteria continues), the network consistently calls the Ukrainian soldiers “fighters”, as if they were some sort of irregular group, rather than a nation’s army.

Steve

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Thing I noticed on the “news”, can’t remember if it was on NBC or ABC (the search for substantive news, rather than hype and hysteria continues), the network consistently calls the Ukrainian soldiers “fighters”, as if they were some sort of irregular group, rather than a nation’s army.

Watching the local “news” this noon, it’s NBC. They don’t call the Ukrainians “soldiers”, or “troops”, or “army”. ISIS has “fighters”, AQ has “fighters”. Why does NBC call Ukrainian troops “fighters”?

Steve

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Watching the local “news” this noon, it’s NBC. They don’t call the Ukrainians “soldiers”, or “troops”, or “army”. ISIS has “fighters”, AQ has “fighters”. Why does NBC call Ukrainian troops “fighters”?

Some people in the US are completely out of their minds. They are supporting Putin. Their work is made easy by people that are scared of Putin. It is like NBC is feeding audience as if animals at the zoo. The networks know better. Just using the audience.

We have to step in and simply say no to Putin. Until we say NO it will be war after war. If you can not stand up as a human being then the threat is real. That includes nuclear threats.

BTW when we send in our troops, not if unless the Russians kill Putin soon, your lives and mine are o the line because Russia is a nuclear power. This is not some sort of decision in DC to send off only the 18 years. This is NO my man can not beat me and rape me again. Then kill me later anyway.

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Watching the local “news” this noon, it’s NBC. They don’t call the Ukrainians “soldiers”, or “troops”, or “army”. ISIS has “fighters”, AQ has “fighters”. Why does NBC call Ukrainian troops “fighters”?

Steve

While the majority of the Ukrainian soldiers are regular troops or reserves that can be called up when required and train together on a regular basis, there are a few politically motivated irregular units that have their own agenda.

I should I suppose mention that the Ukrainians fought on both sides in WWII as did a few of the Baltic countries. I recall reading an interesting story of American bomber crews shot down but who ended up in the hands of NAZI Ukrainian soldiers who hid them from the Germans. Even Norway had pro-Nazi fighters that ended up with a lot of explaining to do when the war finally ended. The Vichy French of course also had mixed loyalties and rather nasty outcomes.

Tim

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While the majority of the Ukrainian soldiers are regular troops or reserves that can be called up when required and train together on a regular basis, there are a few politically motivated irregular units that have their own agenda.

The Azov Brigade/Battalion, whatever they call it, the unit that is claimed to have fascist tendencies, the one holding the steel mill, started out as a militia, but has been absorbed into the Ukrainian National Guard.

Azov Battalion (Ukrainian: ??? «???», romanized: Bataliyon “Azov”), is a neo-Nazi[6][7] unit of the National Guard of Ukraine based in Mariupol in the coastal region of the Sea of Azov, from where it derives its name.[8] Azov formed as a volunteer paramilitary militia in May 2014,[9] and has since been fighting Russian forces in the Donbas War. It first saw combat recapturing Mariupol from Russian forces and pro-Russian separatists in June 2014.[3] It initially operated as a volunteer police company, until it was formally incorporated into the National Guard on 11 November 2014.[10][11][5] In the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the battalion gained renewed attention for its use by Russia in justifying the invasion and during the Siege of Mariupol for its role in the defense of the city.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

The objective of the National Guard is to serve as a military unit with law enforcement powers. Its mission is to ensure state security, protect the state borders (supporting the State Border Service), participate in activities to neutralize paramilitary armed groups, terrorist organizations, organized groups and criminal organizations,[6] as well protecting and guarding critical infraestructure such as Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.[7] During peacetime the National Guard focuses on civilian law enforcement: combating organized crime and controlling civil unrest.[1] However, during wartime the National Guard can be mobilized as a regular military force and take part in combat operations alongside the Armed Forces of Ukraine,[1] which has been done during the War in Donbas[6] and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Guard_of_Ukraine

Steve

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Igor Sushko adds more color on the M777A2s already knocking out Russian tanks:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1524488101128642560

#M777A2 howitzers delivered by the United States already in action in #Ukraine. Precision guided munitions (PGM) compatible variant. ?

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PeregrineTrader, thanks for these links and please keep them coming.

What happens in the next two weeks in Donbas is cruciala and will have huge Macro econ effects. If Ukraine gains an edge then the
Prime weaponry capable of battlefield domination in the hands of high morale soldiers is utterly devastating and game changing.

I rarely disagree with Jeff and some other intelligent voices warning of overreach and of costs of involvement, but on Ukraine I disagree vehemently because

  1. Putin needs a broken nose or the world is in deep shyte,
  2. High morale and solid leadership are easily underestimated assets, and in this instance the Ukrainians have that and better still are up against, mostly, frightened ill led conscripted ill trained soldiers with no workable idea as to why they are fighting (did you see the Granny getting in the face of the Russian kid soldier demanding to know where the Nazis he was supposedly there to fight were “hiding?”)
  3. What better moment for battlefield dominating (30km range with insane accuracy to Russian 20km or so and cross your fingers accuracy) weaponry to show up.

Sure looks more and more like Putin’s Donbas and Baltic Coast face saving campaign is coming up snake eyes. Will he go nuclear? Then we would need to amend 1) above to something much fiercer, trying to spare the Russian populace as much as possible.

david fb

(Dad entered WWII in 1942 as a bright newly minted BS Mechanical Engineering 2nd Lieutenant of Artillery direct from ROTC UW Seattle. By the time he had fought his way to Florence he was a decorated Captain with a knack for “making the damn things work no matter what.” Pentagon plucked him from battle and sent him to Caltech to “become a Rocket Scientist to babysit the Peenemunde Germans.”) I grew up in a home with ashtrays and serving platters made from magnificent brass artillery casings and my bicycle wheels frequently stolen for use to demonstrate gyroscopic based long distance inertial guidance.)

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It should be apparent to all this is the missile age and smart ordnance generally, at least when you are fighting an advanced nation.

Some attributes of such weapons include

  • Precision weapons with a high probability of hitting their target every time

  • Cheap to manufacture on a mass scale

  • There is no defence against them, especially hypersonic’s.

This has huge implications

No ship at sea is safe when they are in range of such weapons. Plus given how cheap they are if the first doesn’t hit, then send 100 at once.

A 100 hypersonic’s at a million a piece is way less than a Navy ship or a $8B - $12B carrier. Do you think a new Kennedy carrier can defend against a 100 missiles at once? Even if does what about another 100.

Additionally they can also hit fixed installations with precision, how about taking out that dam, or powerplant, water utils, Data Centre etc…

In effect a non-nuclear first strike with enough missiles will deprive the opponent of power, water, comms etc.

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“become a Rocket Scientist to babysit the Peenemunde Germans.”

David fb,

Your dad knew one of my neighbors really well, Ed Hall. He managed the installation of the Minuteman Missile systems. He met Goddard during the war. He used Goddard’s solid rocket fuel in the Minutemen.

When I met him he was working for Pratt and Whitney under its older name. He was working on a nuclear powered plane.

His brother was Theodore Hall, part of the Fat Boy plutonium project at Los Alamos. He did spy for the Russians.

Ed of course never spied for the Russians.

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Leap1

Small world indeed.

And yes, Minuteman was one of Dad’s key projects.

David fb

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David fb,

My dad used to say Ed Hall would curse in the most amazing way in Elizabethan English particularly about Nixon who the factory owners all knew was on the take.

Ed was perhaps the smartest man I will ever meet. It is not just how high the IQ is, it is how much work gets done.

Not sure if Ed went to CalTech as well. He lost his retirement money at age 65 investing in an oil wildcatter in the late 1970s. So he left our area for bigger digs in California to study turning seaweed into electricity.

Ed invented the NASA food system or diet used by the moon astronauts. He was into everything. I think Ed was a chemical engineer.

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Ed went to Caltech and graduated with an M.S. in Chemical Engineering in 1948 when my Dad got his PhD on maths leading towards inertial guidance. That same year saw degrees go to other colleagues and friends of Dad’s over the years, all likely originally assembled there under Army guidance for the “babysitting” and reverse engineering missions.

I read on wiki that he spent serious time in England during WWII working various problems in aircraft repair. No doubt that was where the Jewish boy from Queens learned Shakespearean English…

My vague memories of Hall were that he was both very brilliant and very difficult. Dad probably got together with him frequently over the years, particularly at Thiokol for solid fuel tests and along with others at Ramo Woolridge for systems integration.

david fb
(those were the days long long ago)

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Ed invented the NASA food system or diet used by the moon astronauts.

I’ll tag on to that. My father was a nutrition consultant to the space program, before and after he retired as Chief of Medical Research for the Army.

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Ed married the English Edith Hall during the war. Her first born was going to be a difficult birth. Ed had boned up on difficult deliveries before hand. The doctor refused to deliver the baby. Ed pulled his gun and forced the doctor to deliver the baby. He instructed the doctors. That was Ed Hall every step of the way. It always worked out for him. Except his wildcatting investment.

The couple had a tennis court above our driveway through a bit of woods. On garbage day my younger Irish mother would go out with the garbage and the Hall’s would be playing tennis. She would hear Edith yelling at Ed that he was no good in bed. She was trying to beat him in the game. But behind his back she told my mom Ed was her best lover. She was a very educated complex Cambridge educated woman. My mother had never seen anyone talk the way she did.

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