Moritz' Portfolio Summary - December 2022

Greetings fellow life forms :vulcan_salute:,

This summary is split into 4 parts:

  1. The performance of my portfolio versus benchmarks
  2. The allocations of my portfolio and my conviction in each position
  3. The actions I did last month to align my portfolio with my conviction
  4. Company reviews

1. My Results Against Benchmarks

Currency: EUR

2. My Portfolio


Conviction tiers


Tier 1: Champions enjoy my highest conviction due to excellent company performance and execution. They usually have a 15+% allocation.
Tier 2: Contenders are either rising stars due to good performance, but they lack full confidence or past champions due to declining performance. They are sized between 5 % and 15 %.
Tier 3: Bench – These positions are either new ones that I want to keep on my radar/get to know or fallen angels which I want to keep for some (bad) reason.

3. What I did last month

Added: Sentinel One

Before Earnings: due to cash freed up from other reduced and sold positions, I shifted a portion into Sentinel One as I like the high growth and steadily improving profitability.

After Earnings: I found the latest quarterly numbers to be mostly positive. Still, I don’t like the negative trend in absolute cash flow, absolute operating, and net income, as well as some degree of “distrust” in management for failing to meet their own expectations regarding net new ARR "in the high 50s ".

The question for me is whether I can believe management that they can achieve “50% ARR growth” next year when they are achieving other targets in less than 2 months. Therefore, I will not add to the position at this time.

Added: Snowflake

Q3 numbers showed strong customer growth, strong growth in Remaining Performance Obligations, and a continued phenomenal dollar-based Net Retention Rate indicating strong demand and satisfied customers.

Profitability improved across the board: from Operating, and Net Income to Operating and Free Cash Flow.→ Added to Snowflake.

Added: Cloudflare

I added to Cloudflare before Earnings due to free cash from reduced/sold positions. I have a lot of confidence in Cloudflare based on its quarterly numbers, which have been consistent for several years. The company, like all others, is affected by macroeconomic factors.

Because of these factors, management is pivoting Cloudflare’s focus to profitability. At the expense of growth.

Management is very optimistic, which gives me confidence. To date, they occupy only 1% of their identified market for products they already offer today. And that’s without future products that should increase TAM, even more, → more potential upside.

Metrics like sales growth, major customers, and free cash flow I’ll keep an eye on. The slowing growth, on the other hand - while likely temporary and macroeconomic - does not bolster my confidence.

DataDog, for example, is generating 72% higher revenue, and this should actually be more vulnerable to customers looking to cut costs immediately because of its usage-based model. But still grows faster while being much more profitable than Cloudflare.

On the other hand: Cloudflare is one of the most reliable and stable companies when it comes to generating revenue growth. One or two weak quarters are most likely macro-driven outliers.

Fundamentally, I see no reason for company-specific problems. Since the position is already very large, I did not add any additional tranches after earnings and will wait for the next quarterly numbers.

Added: Bill

BILL delivered a strong quarter. The customer growth was phenomenal, which hardly any company can manage in the current environment. That said, the market currently seems uncertain about how BILL and its various revenue streams (subscriptions, transaction fees, and float revenue) will be affected by macroeconomic circumstances.

While BILL currently enjoys a tailwind due to float revenue, transaction revenue could suffer in the coming quarters due to lower purchasing power.

Still, the company reported very strong customer growth, profitability is moving in the right direction, and management is very confident.

Along with Snowflake, Bill was a highlight of the last earnings season for me → Added.

Added: DataDog

Similar to other companies, revenue, and customer growth accelerated. And this is likely to continue for the time being.

I felt positive about a statement from the last earnings call: the macroeconomic environment worldwide had become even worse than in Q2. But their (DataDog’s) own performance in Q3 was in line with Q2, which indicates relative strength. This statement gives me great confidence.

Since DataDog has a consumption-based revenue model, future DataDog quarterly numbers should give us very timely macro insight. If sequential revenue starts to accelerate again, it could be an indication that the macro environment is improving.

After trimming DataDog last month, I started to add again opportunistically due to free cash from other positions.

Trimmed: CrowdStrike

Similar to Sentinel One, Crowdstrike has slipped slightly in terms of my Confidence Level. Looking at growth, Sentinel One is growing faster, while CrowdStrike is much more profitable. For that, CrowdStrike has more difficult circumstances to accelerate growth due to the "Law of Large Numbers ".

To me, CrowdStrike’s management made a much more defensive impression in the earnings call than Sentinel One. Crowdstrike is expected to remain a 40% grower in the coming year.

It’s worth noting that while both CrowdStrike and Sentinel One have a subscription-based revenue model, they pay per endpoint (thus effectively per seat). It’s entirely possible that seat-based models have benefited greatly from the mass hiring of new employees in recent years, and are suffering in the wake of the current layoff wave.

Fundamentally, I don’t see isolated problems with either CrowdStrike or Sentinel One (I recommend reading @SlowAndFast’s last summary on CRWD and S.

Nevertheless, I have adjusted Crowdstrike from about 12% to a size appropriate for my confidence level.

Trimmed: Monday

I reduced Monday before earnings because a statement in the ZoomInfo earnings call made me think: Seat-based revenue models are currently much more vulnerable.

But also rising costs, e.g. due to new, expensive offices in top locations, declining revenue, and customer growth were not conducive to my conviction. At “only” $137M, I think revenue growth should slow less. Just 3 quarters ago Monday was growing over 90% year-over-year, they are now at 65%. Still, I expect Monday to continue to deliver over 50% revenue growth, which is why I remain invested in a small position.

I assume that the revenue growth slowdown is largely due to macroeconomic factors and is not a company-specific problem. Since Monday’s subscription model is based on “seats,” they are more susceptible to macro fluctuations. It is unlikely that their customers are currently increasing the number of seats. It’s more likely that customers will reduce Seats due to layoffs.

On the positive side, Monday has become profitable and still delivers a very strong dollar-based net retention rate of 135%+ (!) - and this with a growth of more than 50%.


  • This portfolio summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Make your own choices in the light of your own wisdom.

4. Company Reviews

Absolute numbers relate to last quarter’s earnings release.
Metrics are adjusted values (Non-GAAP).


What they do: Provides data storage, management, and sharing for the cloud

Confidence tier: Champion

Type of revenue: Consumption-based

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $4.9B

Product revenue [unique metric]: $523M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 110.0% 103.3% 110.4% 101.7%
2023 84.5% 83.1% 67.3%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 19.9% 19.1% 22.7% 15.1%
2023 9.7% 18.2% 12.1%

Remaining Performance Obligations: $3.3B

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 206.1% 122.2% 94.4% 98.5%
2023 82.3% 77.6% 66.5%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 7.4% 6.8% 18.0% 46.7%
2023 -1.4% 4.1% 10.6%

Free Cash Flow: $65M

2021 -7.2% -33.1% -23.2% 9.1%
2022 10.2% 1.0% 6.4% 26.6%
2023 42.9% 11.8% 11.7%

Customers $1M+: 246

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 66.6% 60.3% 52.8% 44.1%
2023 39.7% 36.3% 34.3%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 9.5% 10.2% 8.7% 9.9%
2023 6.2% 7.5% 7.1%

Dollar-based net retention rate: 165 %

2022 168% 169% 173% 178%
2023 174% 171% 165%


  • Added $287M net new remaining performance obligations. An acceleration when looking at quarter-over-quarter, totaling $3B, an increase of 66 % year-over-year → Very solid and encouraging to see customers still committing.
  • The dollar-based net retention rate of 165 %, a slowdown from 171 % - still nothing to complain.
  • Added 28 Global 2000 customers, the largest quarterly addition in the last five periods and a QoQ acceleration from the last quarter. Those customers will contribute nicely to revenue in 3+ quarters from now as they are just ramping up.
  • Added 41 $1M+, and 484 total customers, very solid compared to the previous quarters.
  • Product gross margin ticked up slightly to 75.3 % from 75.1 %
  • Operating income of $43.37M up from $8.47M a year ago.
  • Net Income of $38.45M up from $10.83M a year ago.
  • Operating cash flow of $79.28M up from $15.43 a year ago.
  • Free cash flow of $65M up from $21.53M a year ago.

Room for improvement

  • Product revenue came in at $523M, 67 % year-over-year growth, which was below expectations → Macro: Here we see the weakness of the consumption-based revenue model in action. Customers are pulling back spending in mids of uncertain times.

Additional insights

  • Due to the nature of the consumption model, quarter-over-quarter additions are not meaningful, since consumption is tied to what customers are doing at specific times in their business → Q4 has a seasonally higher number of holidays → People are off → 70% of revenue is tied to human interaction, 30% driven by scheduled jobs → to be aware of in their next earnings.

My investment decision

Compared to CrowdStrike, Frank Slootman didn’t talk much about macro, although it has obviously affected the business. This makes me question Crowdstrike a bit more and raises confidence in Snowflake. Slootman doesn’t seem to put much energy into what they can’t control but is confident in the future of the business.

Product revenue fell short, though not surprising due to its consumption-based revenue model. Based on the secondary metrics I can’t see much wrong with the business. Strong customer adds strong RPO and a very strong Dollar-based net retention rate indicate strong demand and happy customers.

Profitability improved across the board from operating-, and net income to operating- and free cash flow. Sales & Marketing expenses decreased to 37.6% - a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter - which helped here.

Still, I feel very confident with the 20+% allocation as of now and have no plans to change that.


What they do: Provides cloud-based security for infrastructure exposed to the internet

Confidence tier: Contender

Type of revenue: Subscription-based

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $1.64B

Revenue: $253.9M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 51.3% 52.9% 51.0% 53.7%
2022 53.7% 53.9% 47.3%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 9.6% 10.4% 13.1% 12.3%
2022 9.6% 10.5% 8.3%

Free Cash Flow: -$4.6M

FCF margin Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 -1.6% -6.4% -23.1% 4.5%
2022 -30.4% -1.9% -1.8%

Customers $100K+: 1,908 (50%+ revenue from large customers)

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 70.0% 70.8% 71.2% 71.0%
2022 62.6% 60.8% 51.4%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 14.1% 15.1% 15.8% 12.4%
2022 8.5% 13.8% 9.1%

Dollar-based net retention rate: 124 %

2021 123% 124% 124% 125%
2022 127% 126% 124%


  • Revenue came in at $253.9M, 47.3% Year-over-Year with their lowest beat of 1.2 %. Of course, we all hoped for another 50%. But they sacrificed growth at all costs for the trend of profitability → Additionally, revenue growth is influenced by FX headwinds.
  • They are guiding to $274.50. If they beat that by 2% they will be back at 10% sequential growth The “raise” of their full-year guidance by 0.3 % to $975M from $972M is neglectable.
  • Added 4197 total customers, 2.8% more sequentially, which is a slight acceleration versus Q2 (2.4%).
  • Operating Income came in at $14.8M (5.8 % Operating Income Margin), up from $2.23 in Q3 2021. They decreased expenses by mostly lowering S&M spending from 45% to 41% of revenue.
  • Net Income came in at $19.1M (7.5% Net Income Margin), up from $1.35M in Q3 2021.
  • Operating Cash Flow came in at $42.7M up from -$6.92M in Q3 2021
  • FCF of -$4.6M (-2% Free Cash Flow Margin) but up from -$39.73 in Q3 2021. Next quarter I expect them to be break-even based on their statement: “we continue to expect to be free cash flow positive in the second half of 2022.”
  • And they have $1.64B cash. A healthy business.

Room for improvement

  • Revenue came in at $253.9M, 47.3% Year-over-Year with their lowest beat of 1.2 %. This should not drop much further.
  • Added 159 large $100K+ customers, 9.1% sequentially. I would like to see sequential growth in the teens. A number to watch.
  • Dollar-based Net Retention Rate decreased to 124 % from 126 %. I am not too concerned here and believe the bullish management to achieve their long-term target of 130%+. Also, they addressed it in the call: “The decline was primarily driven by less net expansion we have not seen elevated churn.”
  • Remaining Performance Obligations came in at $831M, 9.3% sequentially, down from sequentially 10.5% in Q2.
  • Gross Margin decreased by 1pp to 78% from previously 79% due to inflation. Still above their long-term target of 75%.

Additional insights

  • Similar to other companies, the sales cycles are elongated and macro is challenging. Still, they sound very confident.
  • They now got 75 $1M+ customers. This means they generated about 6.3 per quarter this year. If they add another 6 in Q4, they will be at 81 $1M+ customers.
  • They believe in growing organically to $5 billion of revenue in the next 5 years with the products that are in the market today. → Look at that confidence → That would be 41% CAGR.
  • In the near term, the DBNRR will suffer due to macro, but they sound very confident to hit the DBNRR of 130 %+** over time.
  • Seat- and usage-based models are less resistant. Cloudflare is only subscription-based for now. That’s great. Still, why is DataDog growing faster and generating more revenue, while having a consumption-based model? Good dog!
  • They see cyber security tailwinds popping up since Q3. That’s interesting. That should mean tailwinds for our other cybersecurity companies as well. → Wrote this before CrowdStrike, Zscaler, and Sentinel One reported. It doesn’t add up. What am I missing?
  • Downgrades are primarily happening in the pay-as-you-go business. But that’s less than 20% of revenue. Most of these users will upgrade, once this environment is over. I like their long-term mindset and how customer-centric they are.
  • They seem very thoughtful about how they acquire companies to avoid Frankenstein-type solutions. Love their focus on organic. And confidence. Again.

My investment decision

Cloudflare’s focus is on profitability now. They sacrifice growth for it.

They sound very confident and bullish which gives me the confidence to hold. They penetrated only 1% of their identified market for products they already have available today.

Of course, we should watch metrics like revenue growth, large customers, and Free Cash Flow. Slowing growth, even though it’s driven by macro, doesn’t increase my confidence.

DataDog, for example, is generating 72% more revenue, consumption-based (more prone to customers saving instantly saving costs) but still growing faster and much more profitable. That’s why I moved Cloudflare from Champion to Contender.

On the other hand: Cloudflare is one of the most reliable and stable companies when it comes to delivering revenue growth. One or two weak quarters is most likely an outlier, especially since we have external macro effects going on.

If growth is not falling off a cliff in the next few quarters, we should get rewarded very well for holding on during these times.


What they do: Provides cloud-based infrastructure monitoring

Confidence tier: Contender

Type of revenue: Consumption-based

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $1.8B

Revenue: $437.0M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 51,3% 66,8% 74,9% 83,7%
2022 82,8% 73,9% 61,6%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 11,8% 17,6% 15,8% 20,6%
2022 11,3% 11,9% 7,6% 9,0%

Free Cash Flow: $67.10m

FCF margin Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 22,4% 18,2% 21,1% 32,7%
2021 35,8% 14,8% 15,4%

Customers $100k+: 2,600 (85% of total ARR)

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 50,7% 59,6% 66,4% 63,7%
2022 60,0% 54,1% 44,4%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 14,5% 11,7% 14,6% 11,7%
2022 11,9% 7,6% 7,4%

Dollar-based net retention rate: 130 %

2021 130%+ 130%+ 130%+ 130%+
2022 130%+ 130%+ 130%+


  • DataDog generated $437M in revenue, which is 61.6 % Year-over-Year and 7.6 % Quarter-over-Quarter. → A deceleration compared to the previous quarter which grew at 11.9 % → Growth slowed as anticipated, not due to cloud saturation or other reasons. But due to customers lowering usage similar to COVID. → Macro
  • Their guidance implies a slight sequential acceleration to about 9 % again, but which is mostly driven by a seasonally strong Q4. DataDog also raised full-year revenue guidance to $1.654b by a neglectable 1%.
  • Remaining Performance Obligations accelerated sequentially to 6.8 % which is nice to see:
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 6,9% 25,6% 23,3% 13,4%
2022 5,3% 2,7% 6,8%
  • Profitability is on track. Compared to Q3 2021:
    • Non-GAAP Operating Income improved to $74,84M, 17.1 % margin, from $44.02M.
    • Non-GAAP Net Income improved to $81.04M, 18.5 % margin, from $44.27M.
    • Free Cash Flow improved to $67.10M, 15.4 % margin, from $57.08M.
    • $1.8b cash. No reason to worry here.

Room for improvement

  • The total number of customers generated (1,000) was a bit light. They added 180 customers with ARR > $100k which is also light. But not much of a concern for me. On the flip side: The large customer segment didn’t decelerate much further when looking at Quarter-over-Quarter numbers Q1: 11,9% → Q2: 7,6% → Q3: 7,4%

Additional insights

  • They announced the acquisition of Cloudcraft, which won’t affect revenue growth.
  • To keep in mind the Q4 earnings results: They expect additional event- and conference expenses, which has an effect of 300 to 400 basis points in margin.
  • “overall, all of our products meaningfully outperformed the growth of the hyperscalers.” → That’s a strong statement.

My investment decision

DataDog is a very healthy, profitable, and fast-growing company that keeps innovating. Now they got 18 products! In general, customers using 2+, 4+, and 6+ products are consistently increasing. They also mentioned during the earnings call: One customer is using 14 different products which - next to the consistent Dollar-based Net Retention Rate of 130 % - indicates that customers love what they are doing.

I believe, the trend driven by macro-headwinds will be there for a few quarters until they will be back on track again. They remain very bullish and are basically saying: The macro environment in the world became even worse than it was in Q2. But their (DataDog’s) own performance in Q3 is in line with Q2, which indicates strength. That statement gives me a lot of confidence.

Since they have a consumption-based revenue model instead of a subscription-based one, DataDog’s quarterly numbers should give us faster visibility into the macro situation. If we are seeing sequential revenue accelerate, then this might indicate an improvement in the macro environment.

Going into 2023, DataDog will have lapped its tough comps from 2021 which makes comparables easier. As written in the section above, I started to add again.

Sentinel One

What they do: Cybersecurity firm catching up with CrowdStrike

Confidence tier: Contender

Type of revenue: Seat-based (Endpoints)

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $1.2B

Revenue: $115.30M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 108.2% 121.3% 128.1% 119.8%
2023 109.3% 124.1% 105.8%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 25.2% 22.3% 22.4% 17.2%
2023 19.2% 31.0% 12.5%

Free Cash Flow: -$64.72M

% revenues Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 -87.2% -97.8% -36.9% -10.8%
2023 -69.9% -65.2% -56.1%

Non-GAAP Operating Income: -$49.59M

% revenues Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 -127.0% -98.4% -69.1% -66.1%
2023 -73.4% -56.7% -43.0%

Customers >$100K: 827

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 127.0% 140.0% 140.5% 137.4%
2023 113.4% 117.0% 98.8%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 26.5% 25.6% 19.5% 25.0%
2023 13.7% 27.7% 9.5%

Dollar-based net retention rate: 134 %

2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 124% 129% 130% 129%
2023 131% 137% 134%


  • Total revenue increased 106% to $115.3 million, compared to $56.0 million.
  • Guiding to >90 % revenue growth year-over-year in Q4.
  • Raised full revenue guidance by 1% to $421M from $417M.
  • Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) increased 106% to $487.4 million
  • Total customer count grew by about 55% to over 9,250 customers
  • Customers with ARR over $100,000 grew 99% to 827
  • Dollar-based net revenue retention rate was 134%
  • Non-GAAP gross margin was 71%, compared to 67%.
  • Non-GAAP operating margin was (43)%, compared to (69)% → Noteworthy: They decreased R&D expenses by the largest amount from 40% of revenues to 33% of revenues.
  • → All their margins are improving, which is great!
  • They have $1.2B in cash

Room for improvement

  • Sequential revenue growth slowed to 12.5 % and raw sequential dollars added was the lowest amount since 6 quarters → Macro and though comps versus Q2
  • Sequential total customers added slowed to 7.6 % → Macro
  • Sequential $100K+ customers slowed to 9.5% → Macro
  • Operating- and Free Cash Flow was negative -$60M and -$65M respectively → Watching this closely. Still, they are confident to be on track here, more in the sights section below.
  • Non-GAAP operating- and net income, although as % of revenues is improving, in absolute numbers it’s not: -$50M and $44M respectively, compared to -$39M and -$40M a year ago.

Additional Insights

  • Lower net new ARR was largely due to macroeconomic conditions impacting the timing and size of new enterprise deals → These are not lost opportunities and still sitting in the pipeline.
  • Customers with ARR over $100,000 grew faster than the total customer count and growth from customers with ARR over $1 million even faster.
  • They count each MSSP as a single customer → Some direct SMB customers face budgetary pressures → impact is offset by the strength and shift to the MSSP ecosystem.
  • ARR per customer increased sequentially → reflecting the strength among large enterprises and the adoption of more of the Singularity XDR platform in spite of recessionary concerns.
  • Gross margin in Q3 was 71.5%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-over-year. “I can’t overstate the progress we have made on gross margins, improving nearly 20 percentage points since the beginning of last year.”
  • They expect Q4 net new ARR to increase by at least 20% sequentially compared to the third quarter. They believe, this is a prudent view and reflects a continuation of the macro headwinds we experienced in Q3 → Moritz: I expect them to deliver at least $547M ARR in Q4.
  • Based on their prudent view of the current economic environment and expectations of further macro deceleration (!!), they believe they will deliver at least 50% total ARR growth in the fiscal year 2024. → These factors are most pronounced in larger deals and they require higher levels of evaluations and approvals. → They continue to successfully close these deals. → They believe these macro factors are temporary and there is no change to the long-term opportunity → Pipeline is at a record-high → They guided for 50% ARR growth next year as a floor and state it as a conservative guide. → Their assumption is that things are not going to get better anytime soon → Moritz: They expect the worst. What, if there will be light at the end of the tunnel at a point in time, one doesn’t expect? What if one is not invested in these companies at that time? I have no idea, that’s why I stay invested in these companies.
  • They expect to achieve profitability in the fiscal year 2025 → Moritz: That’s about 1 year from now.
  • They have taken a more prudent approach to investments like moderating new headcount growth.
  • They expect a continuation of improving operating margins in Q4. They did so by over 25 percentage points year-over-year for five consecutive quarters.
  • They are seeing strong adoption of cloud security among new and existing customers, reinforcing the ease of deployment and superior protection from our cloud workload security solution.
  • They state being still in the early innings of a very large expansion opportunity and still see cybersecurity as mission-critical.
  • NRR at 134 % is proving to be resilient regardless of macro conditions.
  • Foreign exchange presented an incremental headwind in EMEA. While re-pricing dollars, foreign exchange can impact the purchasing power of international organizations. Together, these factors contributed to a softer net new ARR. → Still growing at a very healthy pace with ARR growth of over 100%
  • Over two-thirds of our ARR comes from large enterprises and customers with ARR over $1 million grew by more than 100% year-over-year in Q3.
  • The competitive dynamics stay relatively the same as they have seen in the past couple of years. They have seen more and more Microsoft displacements and customers rebounding from Microsoft offerings. Some cite it as eventually the most expensive solution they had to manage over the years. They feel the competitive environment versus Microsoft is relatively sustained. They haven’t seen any major shift, and again if at all, they are seeing more displacement.
  • They expect free cash flow to hit before profitability and then those two will be much more mapped together. ETA: Next fiscal year.
  • A lot of SMB customers that they have added in the quarter are actually masked by one master MSSP service provider that basically onboards all of these customers.
  • I recommend Bert’s recent article on S (seeking alpha): SentinelOne: Time To Reconsider This Once Overvalued Cybersecurity Sprinter

My investment decision

Once I finally read through the S transcript I thought: I can’t imagine NOT having a position in S. Their metrics are moving in the right direction.

Yes, of course, there are hiccups right now - but that is MACRO! smashes fist on the table and it will be history at some point! They sound extremely conservative (but very confident) about their business and guide. They expect the worst (like all the other companies do as well right now). Actually, they mentioned “conservative” and “prudent” 12 times!! I feel the same about CrowdStrike, though I have higher confidence in Sentinel One right now.

Still, as long as Operating-, Free Cash Flow, and Operating- and net income stays significantly negative, I won’t add further. Also, I am confused by the CFOs confidence in achieving ARR targets but missing them. How much can we trust them? The question for me is whether I can believe management that they can achieve “50% ARR growth” next year when they are achieving other targets in less than 2 months. Therefore, I will not add to the position currently.


What they do: Leading cybersecurity firm with a "mission to protect customers from breaches”

Confidence tier: Contender

Type of revenue: Seat-based (Endpoints)

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $2.47M

Revenue: $580.88M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 70.1% 69.7% 63.5% 62.7%
2023 61.1% 58.5% 52.8%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 14.3% 11.5% 12.5% 13.4%
2023 13.2% 9.7% 8.5%

Free Cash Flow: $174.1M

% revenues Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 38.7% 21.8% 32.5% 29.5%
2022 32.3% 25.4% 30.0%

Customers: 21,146

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 82.4% 80.9% 74.5% 65.0%
2023 57.1% 50.5% 44.0%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 15.4% 14.5% 12.3% 11.2%
2023 9.9% 9.7% 7.4%

Dollar-based net retention rate: 125 %+

2022 123% 120% 122% 124%
2023 120%+ 125%+ 125%+


  • Very strong profitability:
    • Operating cash flow: $243M up from $159M a year ago
    • Free cash flow: $174M up from $124M a year ago
    • Net income: $91M up from $41M a year ago
    • EPS: $0.40 up from $0.17 a year ago
  • Gross retention rate remains over 98%
  • Net Retention Rate was at the highest level in seven quarters, which should be at 125+ %
  • RPO accelerated QoQ from 6.4% sequentially last quarter to 11.6% sequentially this quarter
  • CrowdStrike’s subscription customers that have adopted five or more, six or more, and seven or more modules were 60%, 36%, and 21%, an improvement from the previous quarter
  • Sounded confident during the earnings call, reiterated “We remain steadfast in our vision to grow ending ARR in $5 billion by the end of fiscal year 2026 and reach our target operating model in fiscal year 2025.”, which backs up, the lower growth is driven by macro.
  • Average Contract Value was their highest at $25,890 in the past 9 quarters

Room for improvement

  • Lower revenue reported came in at $580.88M than the $595M expected (53 % year-over-year).
  • Beat guidance by just 0.9%, usually, it’s 4% and weak guidance.
    • Still, if they beat their guidance by just 1 %, QoQ revenue growth will accelerate to 9.2 %, up from 8.5 % this quarter. If Crowdstrike stays a 9 % grower at a $2+B run rate, I am happy.
  • Declining Non-GAAP Gross Margin from 77%, now 75% during the past quarters
  • Added the lowest amount of net new customers (1,460) in Q3 since 9 quarters.

Additional insights

  • Similar to other companies, organizations were starting to respond to macroeconomic conditions by adding extra layers of required approvals → C-level, and extending the time it took to close some deals → elongated sales cycles
  • Contrary to Zscaler, SMBs increasingly delay purchasing decisions with average days to close lengthening by approximately 11% and net new ARR contribution decreasing $15 million from Q2 → This also impacted net new logo additions in the quarter → But they’ve actually seen them significantly improved quarter-over-quarter
  • Still, quarter-over-quarter POV win rates increased meaningfully over more complex vendors that require more headcount to manage → They believe the vast majority of these deals are not lost, just delayed.
  • For Enterprises, sales cycles or average days to close remain consistent with last quarter’s modestly higher level, but some also had to manage timing issues related to OpEx budgets and cash flow amidst the rapidly evolving macro → Customers signed contracts that have multi-phase subscription start dates, which pushes their expense and CrowdStrike’s ARR recognition into future quarters → In comparison to last quarter, in Q3, they saw approximately $10 million more ARR deferred into future quarters. → They expect these macro headwinds to persist through Q4.
  • Enterprise customers observed a 68% increase in operational efficiencies with the Falcon platform, equating to an offset of approximately 3.5 full-time employees → Wow! → They believe today’s macro pressures on businesses and the escalating threat environment make Falcon’s value proposition as a consolidator more important today than at any other time in CrowdStrike’s history
  • They don’t see another true consolidator like Falcon as customers are looking for technologies that reduce costs, reduce complexities, actually work and stop breaches, and that’s what we’re delivering.
  • On Remaining Performance Obligations: Customers are looking at starting those subscription dates at staggered times, which makes sense for them → Customers have got to align their resources on their end and make sure that they have the right folks looking at it → For CrowdStrike those deals are confirmed and locked in as these deals are signed. Some might be deployed now, some might be later → They will be in the RPO calculations.

My investment decision

It was a disappointing quarter. I was surprised by the weaker-than-expected revenue growth and guide. If even cybersecurity is struggling, this gives me confidence in the other struggling companies, I hold.

Similar to Sentinel One and Zscaler, Crowdstrike is Seat based (Endpoints) and layoffs are affecting them.

Still, CrowdStrike is still growing very strong,53 % year-over-year, at a $2.3B run rate (!) and generating large amounts of cash ($174M FCF). Also, the combination of strong RPO (11.6 % QoQ), high DBNRR at 125+ %, strong gross retention rate (98 %), increased adoption of more modules per customer (up from the previous quarters), increased ARPU (highest in the past 9 quarters) and reiterated 2025 ARR targets back up the “macro-narrative” indicate no underlying execution- or competitive issues.

Despite the elongated sales cycle for small and medium-sized businesses, Crowdstrike’s competitive win rate in that space improved and SentinelOne’s results will give us more insights into the cybersecurity market.

The $1 million dollar question: Competition or macro?

Looking at the numbers, I feel like doing nothing with S (at 10% size) but had to trim CRWD (was at 11% size). My argument would be looking at growth, S is and most likely will grow faster, while the trend to profitability looks promising and CRWD has to deal with the law of large numbers on top.


What they do: Cybersecurity firm that provides services secure user-to-app, app-to-app, and machine-to-machine communications over any network and any location

Confidence tier: Contender

Type of revenue: Subscription-based

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $1.82B

Revenue: $355.5M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 61.7% 62.7% 62.6% 61.4%
2023 54.2%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 17.0% 10.9% 12.2% 10.9%
2023 11.8%

Calculated billings: $340.1M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 71.2% 58.5% 53.6% 56.6%
2023 37.3%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 -25.4% 48.4% -6.0% 50.6%
2023 -34.6%

Free Cash Flow: $95.6m

% Revenues Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 36.2% 11.5% 15.3% 23.5%
2023 26.9%

Customers $100k+: 2,217

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 60.6% 60.9% 62.2% 63.6%
2022 55.7%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 17.1% 10.7% 12.5% 12.2%
2022 11.5%

Dollar-based net retention rate: 125+ %

2022 125+% 125+% 125+% 125+%
2023 125+%


  • Revenue came in at $356M, 54 % year-over-year, 11.8 % quarter-over-quarter
  • Billings came in at $340M, 37 % year-over-year against tough comps, still something to watch closely
  • Raised FY guide by 2 %, though no billings raise; FY guide: $1.530M; Billings: $1.940M
  • Operating cash flow came in at $129M, up from $93M a year ago.
  • Free cash flow came in at $95.6M, up from $83M a year ago
  • Operating margin was 12 % and free cash flow margin was 27 %
  • Operating income came in at $42M, up from $24M a year ago
  • Net income came in at $44M, up from $21 a year ago
  • Strong dollar-based net retention rate of 125+ %
  • Solid Gross margin of 81.4 %

Room for improvement

  • Less $100K+ customers added than a year ago: 1Q23: 128 vs 1Q22: 136
  • Less $1M+ customers added than a year ago: 1Q23: 21 vs 1Q23: 22
  • RPO grew 57% from one year ago to $2.7B, disappointing due to the low sequential growth of only 2.9 %

Additional insights

  • SMB segment is below 10%; SMBs did better than enterprises → Surprising since most companies like Snowflake reported a contrary picture → Still, on the higher end of the large enterprise segment, they haven’t seen many competitive changes at all → Perhaps their SMBs are concentrated in verticals (i.e. financial services) which are less affected
  • They are not competing against firewall companies like Palo Alto when they talk to their larger deals
  • Americas represented 52% of revenue, EMEA was 33% and APJ was 15%.
  • Their guidance is based on historical performance → they saw a slowdown in October. But: November started to tick back up again
  • They say performance is more driven by macro than anything else → Elongation of sales cycles; previously 9-12 months, now 12 months range → CIOs and CXOs state, they don’t see security budget getting reduced much (compared to IT budgets) but deals have to get approved by C-level which impacts sales cycles
  • They are confident in growing their big target of $5 billion ARR
    • Deal sizes are getting bigger
    • Customers are buying more of their platform
    • Pipeline is increasing in all five regions, very strong, Q2 will be a record pipeline→ They mentioned confidence in their pipeline multiple times
    • They do well with the fed business; have landed 12 of the 15 cabinet-level agencies which are at a small level but have been growing at a decent pace → it’s early stage.
    • None of the deals are going away, they feel well-positioned and winning already
    • They made some changes at the start of Q1 in their sales org which caused some slowdown, but it’s done and already showing improvements
  • Positive COVID effects ended by mid of 2020, since then, the growth of their business is driven by the need for security, transformation, digital transformation
  • They say the service they are selling is more mission-critical than Office 365 since they connect everything to everything
  • They have not seen pricing pressure from the competitive side → Customers told Zscaler, other vendors tried to offer a third price but they decided against it because it doesn’t meet requirements
  • In most cases, their service is showing more than 200 % ROI due to the displacement of eight-point security and networking products
  • They feel very confident and comfortable with the business (including billings) → If anything, it’s seasonality and macro, i.e. the decline in deferred revenue from Q4 to Q1 (-1.5 % quarter-over-quarter) is due to the seasonality of their business
  • FWIT: Jamin Ball named Zscaler as one of his 3 “excellent” picks based on the earnings strength.

My investment decision

Fewer customers added against the previous year for both $1M- and $100K cohorts is disappointing. But Crowdstrike draws a similar picture. I am keen to see Sentinel One’s customer additions after they report next week. I assume, they will show weakness as well. If not, I will buy more of S - instantly.

Also, the light growth in remaining performance obligations and no raise in the billings guide is not increasing my confidence.

That said, they are still growing strong at above 50 % year-over-year at $356M quarterly revenue, and profitability (operating cash flow, free cash flow, operating income, net income) continues to improve which looks great. Customers continue to love them, reflected by the 125+ % dollar-based net retention rate.

They sound very confident, see themselves as mission-critical, indicate a record pipeline in Q2, no competitive threats, and are just (I bolded that on purpose!) affected by the macro environment:

Remo Canessa, CFO Zscaler:

we’re in a position now that the macro environment is not favorable, but it will turn, it will turn.

As of now, I am comfortable with its position size and don’t plan to adjust it further.


What they do: Simplifies, digitizes, and automates complex back-office financial operations

Confidence tier: Contender

Type of revenue: Transaction- and Subscription-based

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $2.6b

Revenue: $229.9M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 156.1% 189.5% 179.4% 155.8%
2023 94.3%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 51.2% 32.2% 6.7% 20.0%
2023 14.8%

Revenue (core): $214.6M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 168.3% 197.1% 182.3% 151.3%
2023 82.6%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 51.6% 32.3% 6.4% 17.7%
2023 10.2%

Revenue (standalone): $125.6M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 71.0%
2023 61.6%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 15.6% 25.0% 5.1% 12.5%
2023 9.3%

Customers Bill (standalone): 172,000

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 22.4% 23.6% 26.8% 30.2%
2023 35.6%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 4.6% 6.5% 8.6% 7.6%
2023 9.0%

Revenue per Transaction (standalone): $7.06

2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 $4.97 $5.79 $6.20 $6.54
2023 $7.06

Dollar-based Net Retention Rate: 131 %

2021 124%
2022 131%


  • Signed a definitive agreement to acquire Finmark, financial planning, and cash flow
    an insights software company.
  • Added Google Cloud Chief Marketing Officer, Alison Wagonfeld, to our board of
  • Total revenue was $229.9 million, an increase of 94% year-over-year and 14.8 % quarter-over-quarter.
  • Added 14,200 customers to bill standalone, an increase of 9 % quarter-over-quarter, the highest sequential increase to date. My personal highlight for the quarter.
  • Dollar-based Net Retention Rate is only reported in Q4, but I assume it to be at similar levels around 131 %.
  • Revenue per Transaction was $7.06, an increase of 8 % quarter-over-quarter, faster than the previous quarter at 5.5 %. Good, that tells us that customers continue to use their platform. They leverage it to run their financial operations even if they’re spending less in terms of overall operating expenses in TPV through the platform.
  • Gross Margin was 85.8 %, up from 83.6 % in the same quarter a year ago.
  • The first quarter of positive non-GAAP profitability
    • Operating Income was $9.1; or 4 % of revenues, their highest ever.
    • Net income was $16.9M or 7.4 % of revenues, their highest ever.
    • Operating Cash Flow was $18.15 or 7.9 % of revenues, up from -$21.13 in the same quarter a year ago.
    • Free Cash Flow was $12.01M or 5.2 % of revenues, up from -$25.48M in the same quarter a year ago.
    • EPS $0.14 cents, their best EPS to date.
  • 12-month payback period, which is good to see. Usually, you want SaaS businesses with payback periods < 12 months.

Room for improvement

  • Bill’s standalone revenue was $125.6M, an increase of 9.3 % quarter-over-quarter, slower than the previous quarter at 12.5 %.
  • Divvy revenue was $86.8M, an increase of 8.6 % quarter-over-quarter, slower than the previous quarter at 26 %.
  • The remaining performance obligations were $143.1M, a decrease of -6.3 % year-over-year.

My investment decision

Most of the analysts congratulated them for great results and the immediate after-hours action indicated happy investors. But during the call, the stock price went down. This could have been due to their comments around softness on TPV.

The market might be spooked by their comments around “softness” due to macro driving potentially down TPV throughout the fiscal year. Since Transaction revenue is 68% of total revenue and driven by TPV, it is a valid concern. Still, they remain very bullish. Bill saves businesses time and money, which is especially now important. Also, I like Bill having a network effect. The more vendors are using Bill, the more other businesses will use it.

I believe this was a strong report. The market might lack confidence due to Bill’s uncertainty on macro effects going forward. Still, we should expect headwinds for all of our companies. I don’t see an isolated (execution) issue with Bill. And I added it after the report.

The Trade Desk

What they do: Provides a platform for Ad Buyers (Agencies, Brands, and other technology companies)

Confidence tier: Bench

Type of revenue: Long-term master service level agreements (similar to recurring)

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $1.3B

Revenue: $395M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 36.8% 100.9% 39.3% 23.7%
2022 43.5% 34.6% 31.2%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 -31.3% 27.4% 7.5% 31.4%
2022 -20.3% 19.5% 4.8%

Non-GAAP Net Income: $128.59M

% Revenue Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 31.8% 31.5% 29.6% 52.6%
2022 49.5% 11.8% 44.1%

Operating Cash Flow: $137.30M

OCF Margin Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 34.2% 3.7% 43.1% 41.3%
2022 46.4% 24.3% 34.8%


  • Revenue came in at $395M, an increase of 31% year-over-year.
    • Certainly, it gets into a territory I don’t like. Still, also TTD has to take its toll in the current environment. Plus they are growing at more than 3x than the total ad market, as mentioned by Green on the earnings call - while others like Pubmatic are tumbling. So, we have a category leader here and I expect them to do very well. But I would like to have them keep growth above 30%.
  • Profitability continues to be the strongest aspect with:
    • $163M adjusted EBITDA, 33% of revenue, up from $123M a year ago and a strong guide of $229M.
    • $137M operating cash flow, 35% of revenue, up from $130M a year ago.
    • $112M free cash flow, 28% of revenue.
    • $1.3B cash and no debt.
  • Strong Customer Retention: Customer retention remained over 95% during the third quarter, as it has for the past eight consecutive years.

Additional insights

  • Procter & Gamble, one of the world’s largest advertisers, announced its support and adoption of UID2.
  • Industry Recognition:
    • Customers’ Choice for Ad Tech on Gartner® Peer Insights™
    • BIG Innovation Award for Technology Product (Solimar)
    • Sales and Marketing Technology Awards: Product of the Year for User Optimization Experience
    • Crain’s 100 Best Places to Work in NYC 2022 (9th consecutive year)
    • Stevie Awards for Great Employers - Employer of the Year, Computer Software
    • Stevie Awards for Customer Service Success - Silver, Technology Industries
    • Forbes Global 2000
    • Samantha Jacobson, Chief Strategy Officer, named to AdAge 40 under 40
  • Key growth drivers: CTV, shopper marketing spend, political midterm elections
  • Revenue split: US: 90% of spend, International: 10% of spend
  • Channels:
    • Connected TV: 40 %, now their fastest-growing segment
    • Mobile: 30 %
    • Audio: 5 %
    • Display: 10+ %
  • They have in the last 9 months gained more market share than at any point in their history.
  • CTV spending grew in the majority of the international markets faster than it did in the United States.
  • Many of their competitors have contracted or grown in the single-digit range, while The Trade Desk grew 31%.
  • They got Disney+ and Netflix, HBO Max, Paramount NBCU, Fox, Hulu, ESPN, ABC.
  • Disney+ platform in December, they are very progressive in how they are enabling advertisers to leverage their own first-party data via UID2.
  • UID2, through its partnership with Disney, might be a major catalyst for the CTV category.

My investment decision

The Trade Desk is a story stock. Jeff Green is great at selling it to investors. Some of their “marketing” statements like "The Trade Desk is an investment in the whole internet” in their presentations sound desperate and weak. Also, why do they never disclose some information, like: How fast is CTV growing? Growth is becoming borderline low for my taste, which I will watch closely in the upcoming quarters.

But I have to admit, the TAM is very large ($816b vs $175b traditional linear TV), and mid-term elections, connected TV tailwinds, and the opening of Netflix should support a reacceleration of revenue. They don’t own content, so they can partner with anyone. Ad dollars spent per thousand impressions (CPM) is double as high as on linear TV since programmatic targeting is better on connected devices. And they are very profitable.

Still, I am following the numbers: They tell a different story as of now. Because of that, I have no plans of increasing my position but I feel comfortable with its current size.


What they do: Provides collaboration software based on low-code and no-code building blocks

Confidence tier: Bench

Type of revenue: Subscription-based (seats)

Trend to profitability: Yes

Cash: $853M

Revenue: $136.9M

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 84.7% 93.7% 94.9% 90.5%
2022 84.0% 75.2% 64.9%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 17.6% 19.7% 17.6% 15.1%
2022 13.6% 14.0% 10.7%

Free Cash Flow: $13.96M

FCF margin Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 -2.7% -2.1% 3.5% 10.6%
2022 -14.9% -15.6% 10.2%

Customers $50k+: 1,323

YoY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 219.0% 226.4% 231.4% 200.4%
2022 186.6% 146.8% 115.8%
QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 26.9% 40.3% 30.4% 29.4%
2022 21.1% 20.8% 14.1%

Dollar-based net retention rate 10+ customers: 135+ %

2021 121% 125% 130%+ 135+%
2022 135+% 135+% 135+%


  • Third quarter revenue of $136.9 million grew 65% year over year (68% FX-adjusted), slowing from 75 % in Q2, and will continue to slow to approximately 56 % in Q4. Macro.
    • Expecting them to come in at $148.8M in revenue (8.7% QoQ) in Q4.
  • FCF positive at $13.96M - their highest ever, improved from $2.87M in 3Q21.
  • Operating cash flow at $20.03M - their highest ever, improved from $3.79M in 3Q21.
  • Non-GAAP net income at $2.58M - a first-time positive, improved from -$11.37M in 3Q21.
  • They have achieved most of their profitability by reducing S&M from 70% of revenues to 60% of revenues compared to last quarter. At the same time, they rented more office spaces.
    • I am a friend of the home office and see the money better invested in S&M than in office space. Office spaces will not generate customers, sales and marketing will. On the flip side, office spaces might make employees happier. And happy employees generate more revenue. Which is what we want, right? This is why I personally don’t judge this move and let the management make us show their - hopefully - strong numbers in a few quarters.
    • Gross Margin improved slightly to a very strong $88.9M
    • $853M cash gives them plenty of runways.
  • Dollar-based Net Retention Rate for all customers declined to 120+ % from 125+ % in Q2, likely due to large customers (>$50K) pulling back spending since DBNRR for that cohort declined to 145+ % from 150+ % in Q2. For Customer 10 + it was stable at 135+ % - and I believe this is the main DBNRR metric we should look at.
  • Large customers $50K+ came in at 163 compared to 200 in Q2 and 143 in Q3 2021. That’s a slowdown when looking at quarter-over-quarter at 14.1 % from 20.8 %in Q3. → Macro. Still, they doubled the number of large customers when looking at year-over-year (+116 %).
  • 10+ users: 76% of ARR (up from 70% 3Q21), 50k+ customers: 26% of ARR (up from 18% 3Q21)

Room for improvement

  • Sequentially their revenue growth slowed down from 14 % in Q2 to 10.7 % in Q3 (and will continue to slow in Q4 at approximately 8.7 %) → Macro. Here’s hoping it will stabilize. Watching this closely.

Additional insights

  • 3000+ customers adopted one new work OS product 5 months after the launch.
  • You can find my thoughts on Monday’s marketing here.

My investment decision

While I would have liked to see stronger growth, the slowdown is likely due to the macro environment.

A year ago, Monday was growing 18-20% sequentially.

Let’s compare that to other companies:

  • DataDog was growing from 16% to 21% sequentially. Now: 7.6%
  • Cloudflare was growing from 10% to 13% sequentially. Now: 8.3%

Should we sell them? I will not.

Will I add to MDAY? Unlikely, as I see stronger alternatives.

Yes, Cloudflare and DataDog generate more revenue in absolute numbers. But I have a hard time selling out a company that just became profitable while still growing 50% year-over-year.

Additionally, there is Monday’s subscription model. It is seat-based and therefore more fragile in this environment. That doesn’t mean, there is an issue with the business itself. I don’t believe so. But I have to admit, there are better, less fragile, mission-critical companies.

As I already have trimmed the position before earnings, I decided to hold the rest for now since I don’t see many issues. Yes, their revenue is slowing down sharply at only $137M which is way lower than my other companies. But it’s still growing at 65 % and is likely to stay above 50 %.

From my perspective, this is driven by macro and is not a company-specific execution issue. Since Monday’s subscription model is seat-based, they are more prone to suffer immediately. Companies are less likely to expand seats or even cancel them due to layoffs. At the same time they just became profitable, and still have a strong DBNRR of 135 %+ (!) while growing above 50 %.


Long Story Short

-61 %: Not fun.

And - most likely - we will see another lousy “macro quarter” soon. Even after Q1 2023, it will remain unclear when the market will recover.

But: Once recovery is on the horizon, companies will surprise us with good results. And that will have a strong impact on share prices. That is the positive side of the current environment and a good time to buy stocks.

Ignore the I-told-you-sos and doomsayers: Fact is, everyone is right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Because it’s a matter of time period. A question of perspective.

I never tire of emphasizing: This phase, too, the most severe economic downturn in a long time will pass. And then everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon again. Until the next crash.

But each crash comes with higher lows than any previous one.

That’s the nature of the markets. And our opportunity.

How do I know?

I don’t have 30 years of experience in investing and didn’t experience previous cycles firsthand.

But do I have to have been at a war to know that it’s bad?

Honestly, I don’t know how things will turn out. This time it might actually be different.

I doubt it: For the past few years, I tried to focus on what I can control:

I studied the history of markets. I read and listened - a lot. Also to you.

Nothing is certain: Playing poker, investing in the right companies, and even living a life successfully is all a question of probabilities.

And based on all I know, the odds are on our side.



Earnings Calendar

This section will be updated as soon as the next earnings season starts.

My Previous Portfolio Summaries

My Investing Style and About Me

→ At the bottom of my first portfolio summary

Thank you for reading.

Happy Investing, everyone!