My Portfolio at the end of Jan

I only post this because it is such a fascinating contrast to Saul. Since I joined this board, I have found a lot of stocks here that I felt were good investments, however, unlike Saul, I am getting “crushed”. I am not sad or worried, but intrigued and confident these are great companies and currently “over-beaten”. I track my 1YPEG stocks on the MF Scoreboard and currently my XIRR is -12.74% while vs S&P it is -8.94%. Both very poor returns. Why? Well my first buys were Aug 12 and 17, just before the flash crash, so that did not help. I bought some AMBA in Sept, but of course that was very bad timing. I made quite a number of buys in October, which did well through Jan, but of course here we are.

I can’t track monthly returns like Saul, because I don’t have all my investments in 1YPEG, so it is too much trouble to see how that “pot” changes, especially with my “nibble” that throws new cash into the “pot”.

I also have some “exceptions” to the “portfolio”. I did own a good sized chunk of INFN long before I joined up here, so I don’t include that. However, discussions on this board gave me confidence to add more, so the new buys are reflected here. I recently bought CELG, but not because of this board, rather because of an MF service, so I don’t include that. I bought AMZN today, but again, not because it meets 1YPEG criteria (it doesn’t reallY), but because I buy so much stuff from them and it is an MF pick favorite I have been waiting for. Waiting too long of course. (Just got a bag of dog food from Amazon today, another one yesterday, dog treats the day before, something coming tomorrow, etc.)

I have been nibbling more recently and will take some bigger bites next week as I still have cash for stocks set aside. I do like CBM, which has fallen off Saul’s list and I am willing to make SWKS a bigger position at this price and after earnings. I am gun shy of AMBA and will probably just let that ride until I am confident of an earnings trend post-GoPro days. I think CASY is a stock that has years of potential and I need to get more of that. I think I will buy FB “in” my IBD breakout portfolio.


Ticker	RETURN	S&P	VS S&P	% PORT.
SWKS	-16.89%	-2.35%	-14.54%	15.32%
DY	-13.67%	-2.67%	-11.00%	13.10%
LGIH	-22.32%	-3.59%	-18.73%	13.03%
SKX	-6.79%	-4.28%	-2.51%	11.15%
ABMD	10.89%	-5.22%	16.11%	10.55%
PAYC	-25.31%	-4.26%	-21.05%	10.43%
INFN	-11.39%	-3.55%	-7.83%	6.06%
CASY	0.93%	-3.84%	4.77%	5.97%
INBK	-13.28%	-1.65%	-11.63%	5.30%
AMBA	-43.46%	0.13%	-43.59%	4.90%
SEDG	39.15%	-5.79%	44.94%	4.19%

My Stock Advisor Scorecard is -4.61 XIRR
on the bright side, I created a scorecard for all the stocks I sold in 2015 and they are down -37.58% since I sold (-25.64% vs S&P), so those were good decisions.

So you can see, I am a stellar investor and you should really listen to what I say :wink:

(I have been 80% cash in my 401K since Jan and I can’t buy individual stocks there, so that has saved me and with the true FTD I will be “buying the market” over the next few days with an eye one 100% in).

37 Likes

Puddinhead, It sounds as if you have done pretty well in a bad market it the stocks you sold are down an average of 37.6%, and the stocks you hold are down 12.7%, and only 3.85 worse than the S&P. The stocks on your list ought to do very well when the market turns (i.e. days like Friday).

Best

Saul

2 Likes

Well my first buys were Aug 12 and 17, just before the flash crash, so that did not help

That explains it. This was a bad time to get into the stocks advocated on this board. Back in Saul’s monthly letter, the last day of June, his portfolio peaked at 51% up YTD. Since then, most of those gains evaporated. I joined this board around that time along with other people. Discovering this board in the middle of 2015, was really bad timing, but I do believe in the basic message promoted here.

I am willing to make SWKS a bigger position at this price and after earnings

After weeks of bad-mouthing SWKS on this board, the earnings call proved me wrong, so I got back in at $68, yesterday. A few months back I sold at $88 and now I am back at $68. Sometimes, it is better to be lucky than smart…

I bought AMZN today

So did I. I thought the quarter was a good one. The reaction of the market did not make sense to me.

I think CASY is a stock that has years of potential and I need to get more of that

Amen. CASY is my favorite stock. No China exposure and immune from the strong dollar.

2 Likes