My take on Twilio's results.

My take on Twilio’s results

I’m in Europe right now and was going to bed when the results came out so this is my first chance to really look at them. To me it looks like a real blow-out quarter!

Adj Earnings of 3 cents beats by 8 cents

Total Revenue of $148 million, up 54%, and up 15% sequentially. Last quarter it was up 12% sequentially. It beat estimates by $17 million (or 13%).

Base Revenue of $135 million, up 54%, and up 15% sequentially.

Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate of 137%, up from 131% a year ago and from 132% sequentially

Adj gain from operations of $2.2 million, up from losses from operations of $4.7 million a year ago, and of $3.9 million sequentially.

Adj EPS of 3 cents, up from a loss of 5 cents a year ago, and from a loss of 4 cents sequentially.

57,300 Active Customers, up from 43,400 a year ago.

Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate was 137% for the quarter, compared to 131% a year ago (reflecting loss of Uber a year ago), and up from 132% sequentially.

Note all the sequential gains as well as the yoy gains. It doesn’t get much better than this! No wonder it was up 16% in the aftermarket, although that may be a little exaggerated.

Saul

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For those who haven’t figured it out, revenue up 15% sequentially is spectacular! If they can keep it up, it annualizes out to revenue rising 75% per year. (1.15 times 1.15 times 1.15 times 1.15 equals 1.749).

And here’s what their Base Revenue growth rate has looked like (in percentage growth):


**2016:          75  73**

**2017:  62  55  43  40** 

**2018:  46  54**

You can see when Uber started going in-house in the 2017 March quarter, and hit a peak effect in the 2017 Dec quarter. The Uber effect yoy is starting to fade away, and should be gone by next quarter.

Saul

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Dollar-based retention rate of 145 % without Uber, that’s quite impressive.

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Superb result for Twilio, and great analysis, Saul. This is like a B2C cloud play, unlike all the B2B cloud plays we have. I’ve been thinking about their business model for a while, I think it has a real moat.

I’ve been thinking about buying, but didn’t pull the trigger :frowning: Well, I don’t believe in price anchoring - I’ll look at buying once the current price settles out, some time in the next few weeks.

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