Nuclear War

[tim443]

Holy borscht bowls!!! Do say? Vlad’s logistics have to come all the way from Moscow, his capital???

Probably not but most Americans think of European countries as being fairly small. There was a presentation about the total route of the “40 mile” convoy that put the distance they had to travel at over 1000 Km.

Meanwhile the whole thing is stalled as many of the vehicles are out of fuel and are waiting for more to arrive. One of the terms used by military people to describe it is “under performed”, time is not on the Russian side right now methinks. More smart weapons are arriving from NATO countries including Stinger AA and several different types of Anti-Tank weapons. The Baltic countries are also being reinforced.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-military-convoy-bear…

The menacing 40-mile-long Russian military vehicle convoy bearing down on Kyiv appears to have stalled

Abbie Shull 3 hours ago

…

A senior US defense official said it could be logistics problems, but Russia may also be “regrouping, rethinking, reevaluating” its invasion.

Meanwhile in my own neighborhood.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-sending-anti-tank-wea…

POLITICS | News
Canada sending anti-tank weapons, ammunition to Ukraine

Rachel Aiello
CTVNews.ca Online Politics Producer
@rachaiello Contact

Published Monday, February 28, 2022 5:24AM EST

OTTAWA – Canada will be supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons systems and upgraded ammunition to be used in response to Russia’s ongoing invasion, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday, as federal ministers pledge more help is coming in the face of Vladmir Putin’s “brutal assault on Ukraine.”

With plans to make the delivery as soon as possible, Canada will be sending approximately 100 Carl-Gustaf anti-tank weapons system launchers and 2,000 rockets for the Ukrainian army to use, …

Anymouse <guessing they can’t just pull into a gas station and use a credit card?>

[BrerBear]

tim443
Probably not but most Americans think of European countries as being fairly small. There was a presentation about the total route of the “40 mile” convoy that put the distance they had to travel at over 1000 Km.

Likely true, but zeroing in on the ‘doorstep’ thingy.

My first point:
Standing on the border of (cooperative) country Belarus, planning to ‘militarily flood’ Ukraine offensively, that was Vlad’s “doorstep”. At the Belarus border.

Hardly all the way to far remote, hardly strategic, hardly a doorstep, Moscow.

We agree, I think?

Rolling across that border, should have been a damn slunk. It wasn’t.

At the border? Fuel? Food? Ammo? What are those? A bunch of four letter words??:? Are they critical??? Who knew???

(Thankful that Vlad blew it. At least so far.)

[steve203]

A senior US defense official said it could be logistics problems, but Russia may also be “regrouping, rethinking, reevaluating” its invasion.

I seem to be a cult of one, offering that the “huge convoy” was a parade of empty trucks, a psy-op to intimidate everyone into thinking the Russians were unbeatable, dreamed up by a swaggering, tin-plated dictator, with delusions of God-hood.

I offer as my first clue that the trucks are empty: they appear to be out of fuel. What good is a relief convoy that can’t even sustain itself, let alone help the men at the front?

First bit of evidence on the God-hood thing: Putin sitting at one end of a table, with everyone else sitting thirty feet away: the “God” showing himself apart and superior to everyone else.

Steve

[BrerBear]

I offer as my first clue that the trucks are empty: they appear to be out of fuel. What good is a relief convoy that can’t even sustain itself, let alone help the men at the front?

First bit of evidence on the God-hood thing: Putin sitting at one end of a table, with everyone else sitting thirty feet away: the “God” showing himself apart and superior to everyone else.

Steve

Sitting apart? Like a reining entity? All, likely accurate.

All, very bad signs.

REALLY BAD SIGN: When Vlad is exposed, his danger quotient will rise ten fold.

He will be made to look like a fool. To the whole world.

Bad. Very bad.

[syke6]

We are still waiting for a hard cold example where the “attack on one is an attack on all” thingy.

IIRC: Article 5 of the agreement.

Article 5 was invoked by NATO after the 9/11 attacks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/13/us/after-attacks-alliance…

Another important part of the NATO partnership: Budget 2% of members’ GDP for mil funding. Absolutely NONE (again, IIRC) of the partners were meeting their contractual numbers. Trump got regularly excoriated for publicly prodding them to step up and comply.

The 2% number is not contractual nor required.

[Watty]

I don’t remember if it was on this board where I read it but I saw someone point out that the drive from Kyiv to Belarus is only about a four hour drive in normal times.

That makes trying to figure out why the convoy is going so slow real interesting.

[flyerboys]

steve

The reason I am not an adherent of your cult due to my membership in a far more ancient cult altogether – the "secrets cannot be kept hardly ever, and never if more than a very very few determined sane adults know it. A convoy of soldier boy drivers of empty trucks? Nah, by now even my skeptical dog would know about it.

I do find the huge null convoy amazingly weird and half think it will inspire some weird detective military lawyer mystery series on Netflix. Whaaat the?

[flyerboys]

An solidly backed up story on Russian soldier lack of morale, knowledge of mission, and sense of purpose.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/russian-soldie…

david fb

[flyerboys]

Yes, I am working hard to convince myself to have hope that Ukraine, both the Ukrainian and Russian people, and sanity; prevail over Putinism, Putin and Oligarchs, and lunacy.

No, I am not confident of a good outcome.

just hopeful.

david fb

[flyerboys]

Gotta love these people. This is their tax enforcement authority talking!

The Ukrainian Tax Authority Anti Corruption Fraud unit assured citizens seizing Russian military equipment won’t need to declare it for tax purposes, but only regarding registering “change of ownership”.

“Have you captured a Russian tank or armoured personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the motherland! …no need to declare the captured Russian tanks and other equipment, because the cost of this … does not exceed 100 living wages (UAH248,100) ($8,298).”

david fb

[steve203]

The Ukrainian Tax Authority Anti Corruption Fraud unit assured citizens seizing Russian military equipment won’t need to declare it for tax purposes, but only regarding registering “change of ownership”.

It’s hilarious, but I have no way of verifying if it’s true. Two pieces of video on the late news:

-local Ukrainian civilians joyriding on a captured Russian tank.

-farmers towing away a Russian missile battery with their tractors.

Here’s the video of the missile battery. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD8z_kGe7rs

With Ukraine using the same equipment as Russia, it’s pretty impossible to know if this is real, or stage managed using Ukrainian equipment.

Had not seen this one before: civilian tractor towing Russian personnel carrier away. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2w3z2/man_in_trac…

Another tractor towing a different model missile battery away. https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/14982799306055475…

Other articles say the Russians have started stealing fuel from local farmers, so the farmers are contaminating their fuel so the Russian vehicles gag on it.

It is going to be utterly impossible for Putin to control these people. Even if he takes the harshest actions on obvious sabotage, people can do a lot of damage just by playing stupid.

Steve

[steve203]

I don’t remember if it was on this board where I read it but I saw someone point out that the drive from Kyiv to Belarus is only about a four hour drive in normal times.

At that time, I was assuming a path down on the east side if Kiev, about 266km from Gomel in Belarus.

I have since identified where the “huge convoy” is. The aerial pic showing the convoy going through an intersection with a circular road in it is on the south side of Ivankiv. That means the convoy is more or less, following the P02 from there south. We know one of the first places captured by the Russians was Chernobyl, which is on P56. P56 goes southwest from Chernobyl to Ivankiv, and connects to P02 at that intersection.

So, from Hdzyan in Belarus, past Chernobyl, around Ivankiv and south to Hostomel, where the airport is that was hit early on by air mobile elements, is a grand total of 132km, a lousy 82 miles. Normal drive time is 1hr, 49 minutes.

And the “huge convoy” hasn’t been able to cover that distance in how many days?

It’s fake, fake, fake. That convoy was never intended to go anywhere or do anything. It’s purpose is propaganda and intimidation.

Steve

[steve203]

So, from Hdzyan in Belarus, past Chernobyl, around Ivankiv and south to Hostomel,

Since we have been seeing that pic of the “huge convoy” going around Ivankiv for several days, lets really embarrass Putin’s army: the distance from Ivankiv to Hostomel is 59km. Normal drive time 51 minutes.

Steve

[captainccs]

The 2% number is not contractual nor required.

But when the camel (bear?) stuck its nose in the tent, they got religion!

The Captain

[captainccs]

That makes trying to figure out why the convoy is going so slow real interesting.

For one, supposedly Putin delayed the invasion after the end of the Olympics and meanwhile higher temperatures thawed the ground keeping all the heavy equipment on the road. Ukrainians have been building roadblocks and even blew up a bridge to slow the advance.

There is a scene in the movie Patton where he personally clears a bridge in Sicily.

When the movie “Patton” was first released, the most controversial scene in this film was not the slapping scene but that in which General Patton shoots a pair of mules that are blocking a bridge and dumps their carcasses over the side.

https://www.quora.com/Did-General-Patton-really-shoot-the-tw…

Shift happens!

The Captain

[captainccs]

The reason I am not an adherent of your cult due to my membership in a far more ancient cult altogether…

Secrets are things you whisper in peoples’ ears…

The Captain
at IBM there was a fellow nicknamed “Radio Rumbos.” Any time you wanted to start a rumor you just had to whisper it in his ear with the serious warning not to tell anyone.

[DrBob2]

…secrets cannot be kept hardly ever, and never if more than a very very few determined sane adults know it

Were not the Germans surprised by the Normandy landing?

DB2

[tim443]

That makes trying to figure out why the convoy is going so slow real interesting.

Next time you feel like driving 500 miles, bring along oh 1000 - 1500 of your best friends each in vehicles, perhaps a third of them tracked and most of the rest trucks? Plan for stops to repair or tighten stretched tracks, repair flat tires, refuel from jerry cans in some of the trucks, designate passengers to watch for enemy aircraft or ambush along the way. No stopping at fast food joints as the numbers would overwhelm them and most of your friends wouldn’t get food. Pee breaks are bad because you have to round the shy ones up again. Then of course sleepy drivers may run into the guy ahead of them … but stopping for a nap will create an accordion effect costing more time.

Visibility around armoured vehicles is bad, not a lot of windows. One of our guys (company convoy in Germany) pulled out of a 20 vehicle APC convoy to see what was ahead and crushed a VW bug coming the other way. The bug driver actually walked away but he only had half a car left. Purpose of the convoy … driver training.

Oh, this is a selection of what Google gave me for my Brigade on the move in Germany interspersed with a lot of extra fun. I was 18 and drove the platoon HQ APC. I also knew how to adjust the detent to get an extra 3-4 KPH out of my beast. }};-D

Tim

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1UEAD_enCA974CA974&s…

[BrerBear]

There is a scene in the movie Patton where he personally clears a bridge in Sicily.

When the movie “Patton” was first released, the most controversial scene in this film was not the slapping scene but that in which General Patton shoots a pair of mules that are blocking a bridge and dumps their carcasses over the side.

https://www.quora.com/Did-General-Patton-really-shoot-the-tw……

Shift happens!

The Captain

It most undoubtedly occurred “back then”, Patton was in a hurry to win a war.

In the film, at the very end with the scrolling credits, etc. They made sure there was a disclaimer that “no animals were harmed in the making of this film”. LOL.

[syke6]

It’s fake, fake, fake. That convoy was never intended to go anywhere or do anything. It’s purpose is propaganda and intimidation.

I find that extremely unlikely. The convoy contains valuable military assets like tanks, APCSs, and towed artillery. That stuff doesn’t do you any good unless you use it. There are a number of reasons for the stall. They could be waiting for resupply or waiting to link up with forces advancing from the south.

Another reason, and in my mind a more compelling reason, is mud. The Russians even have a name for it: Rasputitsa.

Rasputitsa (Russian: ?????´????, IPA: [r?s'put??ts?]) is a Russian term for two seasons of the year, spring and autumn, when travel on unpaved roads or across country becomes difficult, owing to muddy conditions from rain or melting snow. "Rasputitsa" also refers to road conditions during both periods.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa

I’ve seen enough photos of abandoned but undamaged Russian vehicles stuck in the mud to conclude Russians straight up have decided they can’t leave paved roads, at least up north. If the Russians try to advance that column only on the paved roads eventually they will come into range of Ukrainian artillery and it will be a wipe out.

Another reason might be crappy Russian tires. Lots of photos of Russian vehicles with flat tires. You have to exercise vehicles to keep the sidewalls flexible. Could be Russian maintenance practices are lacking.