I’m appalled at the naivety of news reports regarding Putin’s recent mention of nuclear war.
Those 17 (or more) miles of Russian tanks and military vehicles on the highway in Ukraine are easy targets for an air attack. Once they cross the border into Ukraine they are fair targets for anyone Ukraine asks to assist in their defense. Nato countries could probably organize air attacks from at least half a dozen air bases. Attacks by cruise missile or from Navy ships in the Baltic would be easy. Not to mention rocket or drone attacks. Or shoulder mounted anti-tank weapons.
Putin’s comments communicate his view that attacks must be limited to those conducted by Ukraine’s people possibly with weapons supplied by friendly powers. A military attack by outsiders would be regarded as an escalation. That might result in the use of nuclear weapons.
These are Putin’s rules. Based on what laws? Did he dream them up on his own?
Russia probably has MIGs flying over to maintain air cover. The comment implies limited air cover could be one of Russia’s weaknesses. That column is a sitting duck and cannot easily hide. A missile defense for a 17 mile column might require occupying hills about every 10 miles on both sides of the road. Quite an undertaking for a long column traveling a distance. And each of those hills has to be defended.
Putin’s rule has alerted non-members of Nato like Finland and Sweden that either they must join Nato or have the military power needed to defend themselves without outside assistance.
<I’m appalled at the naivety of news reports regarding Putin’s recent mention of nuclear war.>
It’s like children hiding their eyes to protect themselves from monsters. I think the serious threat of nuclear war is just too scary for news reporters (many of whom are too young to remember the fears of the 1950s-1960s) to take seriously. My father was active duty reserve Air Force at Idlewild Airport so I was very aware and deeply frightened.
Many of the same news reporters didn’t take the threat of a physical invasion of Ukraine seriously, either, even though the preparations were building right before their eyes.
That column is a sitting duck and cannot easily hide. A missile defense for a 17 mile column might require occupying hills about every 10 miles on both sides of the road. Quite an undertaking for a long column traveling a distance. And each of those hills has to be defended.
Some of the vehicles in the column are reported to be mobile Air Defense vehicles. Generally they would be AA missile systems mounted on a tank chassis or a ZSU 23-4 with 4 23mm AA guns. They have had many different versions over the years. They rarely throw anything away, just add newer stuff now and then.
I’m pretty sure that the Russian military and Communist Party want to survive beyond the “Rule of Putin”. Would the generals follow an order for a nuclear strike? I have my doubts.
In January 2021 when many had doubts on the sanity of the then current President, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Milley went up and down the nuclear command structure making sure that everyone understood that nothing gets launched without the word from him. That wasn’t particularly “Constitutional”, but most understood it was necessary.
The Russian massive loses could drive a revolution or coupe.
I’ve read that Russian generals have been ordered to incinerate their fallen troops. There will be no flag draped coffins returning to Russia and their mother’s tears.
If the US uses military options against Russian men in the field Russians will dig in against us and side with Putin.
Intercst,
The above was my main point.
But to your point Putin is giving orders for a war fought in very different ways. Meaning he is not listening to his generals etc…he is making mistakes every inch of the way.
These are Putin’s rules. Based on what laws? Did he dream them up on his own?
Those have been the rules since 1945: when one superpower engages directly, the other superpower uses proxies.
The US engaged directly in Korea and Nam. Russia used North Korea, China (before it had nukes) and North Vietnam as proxies. We fought Chinese regulars in Korea. China developed it’s first nuke in 64, so, in Nam, we only faced VC and NVA, not Chinese regulars.
Russia engaged directly in Afghanistan, so the US used the Mujahideen as proxies.
Direct conflict between NATO and Russia could too easily escalate to nukes, so both sides have followed those rules, and it has worked. That is also why nearly everyone bordering Russia has sought membership in NATO, because, once in NATO, they are safe from Russia.
I’ve read that Russian generals have been ordered to incinerate their fallen troops. There will be no flag draped coffins returning to Russia and their mother’s tears.
We have seen that move before. The coffins returning from Iraq were unloaded at Dover AFB and whisked away in secret.
Feb. 26, 2009
Pentagon lifts media ban on coffin photos
The new policy reverses a ban put in place in 1991. Some critics contended the government was trying to hide the human cost of war.
Russia probably has MIGs flying over to maintain air cover. The comment implies limited air cover could be one of Russia’s weaknesses. — Some of the vehicles in the column are reported to be mobile Air Defense vehicles. Generally they would be AA missile systems mounted on a tank chassis or a ZSU 23-4 with 4 23mm AA guns.
Putin’s Bet www.city-journal.org/putins-bet
Observers have been puzzled to see Russian troops advancing into Ukraine without attaining air supremacy…From the U.S. perspective, Russia’s decision to pursue a ground invasion when the skies remain contested seems foolhardy. The American military strongly favors establishing air supremacy before committing ground troops to battle…
Russia’s military is instead built around ground-based heavy artillery. Much of the Russian force now invading Ukraine consists of “Battalion Tactical Groups” (BTGs). These formations of less than 1,000 men operate as much artillery as a U.S. armored brigade—a formation of about 4,500 troops—as well as air-defense, anti-tank, and multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) batteries…
This artillery-centric army would be nevertheless highly vulnerable to air strikes in the absence of air defenses, a weakness of which Russian military theorists have been aware since the last years of the Soviet Union, and which modern Russia has taken pains to address…Today, Russia operates some of the world’s densest and most sophisticated air-defense systems. The infamous S-400, which has been purchased by China, India, and Turkey, is one example, but progress has also been made in linking up older air defenses to modern target-acquisition systems. Every BTG also operates its own short-range air-defense systems…
Some of the vehicles in the column are reported to be mobile Air Defense vehicles.
Meanwhile the Russians still appear to have not fixed their logistics problems. They also have a serious moral problem as many of the draftees simply don’t want to be there. Reports that some have punched holes in their own vehicle’s fuel tanks. It is difficult in a cell phone world to hide what is happening?
Direct conflict between NATO and Russia could too easily escalate to nukes, so both sides have followed those rules, and it has worked. That is also why nearly everyone bordering Russia has sought membership in NATO, because, once in NATO, they are safe from Russia.
Steve
That’s the theory.
And, in theory, it should work.
We are still waiting for a hard cold example where the “attack on one is an attack on all” thingy.
IIRC: Article 5 of the agreement.
Another important part of the NATO partnership: Budget 2% of members’ GDP for mil funding. Absolutely NONE (again, IIRC) of the partners were meeting their contractual numbers. Trump got regularly excoriated for publicly prodding them to step up and comply.
The way to stop the Russian column 17 miles long is wipe out the tanker trucks with drones. With no fuel, it goes nowhere. Don’t bother trying to take out tanks. Get the fuel trucks. Without fuel, the tanks just sit.
The Germans found that out in WW2. So did Rommel in Africa.
A couple 50 cal sniper rifles from a mile away can wreak havoc on unarmored fuel trucks. puncture a few holes, hit 'em with incendiary rounds.
telegraph The way to stop the Russian column 17 miles long is wipe out the tanker trucks with drones. With no fuel, it goes nowhere. Don’t bother trying to take out tanks. Get the fuel trucks. Without fuel, the tanks just sit.
Concur. Would be nice touch if the vehicles carrying ammo and/or food could be sniped. But fuel is the priority. Easiest to ID, and they will ‘self destruct’ if they can be hit with a round or two.
Side note: It is of special interest that Vlad has logistics problems when attacking a target that is RIGHT ON HIS DOORSTEP SO TO SPEAK. The issue speaks volumes as to the competency of his planners’ planning.
We can start by assuming the reason the convoy is moving slow is the Ukrainians are targeting them all over. The Ukrainians are more than smart enough to hit specific targets.
Kyiv though is a short enough trip from the border.
We wont be fighting with Russia. If we do the Russians will dig in against us and become very patriotic to Putin.
Another important part of the NATO partnership: Budget 2% of members’ GDP for mil funding. Absolutely NONE (again, IIRC) of the partners were meeting their contractual numbers. Trump got regularly excoriated for publicly prodding them to step up and comply.
European defense expenditures started uptrending in 2015, after the invasion of Crimea, before Trump was POTUS.
In 2015, Greece and the UK exceeded 2%, with Estonia, Poland and France only slightly short of 2%.
NATO rules also call for equipment expenditures to be 20% of defense spending. In 2015 Luxembourg, Norway, Turkey, France, UK, and Estonia met or exceeded that level, with Poland slightly short.
Plenty of informative graphs and tables at this link.
Driving distance from Kiev to Moscow is 851 kilometers (529 miles).
Holy borscht bowls!!! Do say? Vlad’s logistics have to come all the way from Moscow, his capital???
If so, he has bigger problems than can be imagined.
There are some folks who would position their ‘stuff’ closer on the border of their country closer to where the ‘stuff’ might be needed, right across the border.
But if it’s all in the capital, Moscow, well, he deserves to get flogged.
(America certainly would if everything needed for conflict were stored in WDC. But that’s another discussion.)