As the Chinese economy and domestic transport sector undergo significant transformations, demand for the most widely consumed oil-based fuels – including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel – declined marginally in 2024. What’s more, China’s combined consumption of these fuels of almost 8.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) was 2.5% below 2021 levels and only narrowly above those in 2019.
With the overall Chinese economy pivoting from manufacturing to services-based growth and as the adoption of electric vehicles expands in the transport sector, the data strongly suggest that the combustion uses of petroleum fuel in China have already reached a plateau and that the potential for future growth may be very limited.
Overall Chinese oil demand continues to increase, with growth dominated by petrochemical feedstocks, which are converted into plastics and fibres rather than burnt as fuels. Oil demand for petrochemicals in China rose by almost 5% in 2024 as new plants came online, a trend that is expected to continue in the next few years. However, while China was responsible for more than 60% of global increase in overall oil demand between 2013 and 2023, it represented less than 20% of last year’s rise, largely as a result of its slowdown in fuel use.