One Month Later and April

Money management within your portfolio can make a world of difference in your bottom line results. It’s not talked about much but combined with allocation and allocation strategy money (cash) management can make all the difference in the world. Take this example - for example:

You are on a train traveling on a curving track at speed. There is no sitting room and you are standing in the aisle holding on to a support railing. The train weaves around the curves and sometimes you have to lean in to keep your balance and sometimes you have to lean out. Money (cash) management within your portfolio is sort of like that only somewhat trickier and the way you handle that can substantially impact your portfolio’s bottom line. Sometimes you lean into cash - sometimes you lean out of cash. See how that works?…

A great many people would call that attempting to time the market and everyone of us knows that actually timing the market is fraught with potholes, loop holes, and possibly worm holes. (I am not all that sure what a worm hole actually is - but I thought I would throw it in). Practically speaking it is nigh impossible…right? However, the use of shorter term TBs to lean in and lean out of the market curves and its ebbs and flows seems to work well and ameliorates and manages, to a large degree, the savagery of the current market for growth.

For folks who are committed to LTBH and who attempt to willfully ignore the potholes, loop holes and worm holes (I have no idea what a worm hole is -but I thought I would throw it in) and maintain their portfolios its a matter of ‘Wherever you Go - There you Are’.

Back on February 24 the Nasdaq reached a low of 12,587 before a hard rally pushed the Close that day to 13,473. The way I see that days low was like a punch in the mouth to Bulls - and they would have none of it and rallied hard.

Then - March 14 the Nasdaq re-tested the February lows sinking intraday to 12,555 before ending the day at 12,581. No hard rally that day. The Bulls were back on their heels.

Since March 14 the Nasdaq has rallied. On March 29 it reached a high of 14,646 before Closing that day at 14,619 - a full 2064 pts higher (+16.4%) The Bulls - or at least their programmed algorithms, decided at least temporarily, that they had had enough of the Bear wimpyness and decided to get stuck-in quite nicely with a healthy portion of enthusiasm. Which - as I think through my April Starting Gate inner-mind discussions, begs the question as to what happens from here.

On the one hand, the late March rally was swift and encouraging and nothing if not borderline decisive; however, there are a lot of worries out there - a lot more curves the market train can throw at us. And over the last several trading days we have drifted down 300-400 pts or so but its also encouraging that the trap door didn’t swing open. So there’s that.

On the other hand, the world, the country and the economy seem messy just now. Just a little messy. And that Yield Curve inversion thingy certainly worries the market with he potential to shake things up a bit more. Sure…it doesn’t always lead to a recession but it does lead to a recession often enough to cause folks to get a little wobbly in their resolve; even if, it takes an average of 17 months or so for the recession to actually arrive once the Yield Curve warning alarm begins to blare.

So what to do? Mostly likely nothing - nothing at all. With the sky high Real Estate prices lately I have sold a number of rental properties and so I may dump some of that cash into the portfolio at some point - especially if fading rally re-rallies; which, I think there’s a decent enough chance that it will - at least for a bit. Seasonal timing is on our side now but don’t overlook a September-October fade.

Anyway - next week is pivotal for whether the rally gains strength or we sink back in the doldrums. Thats the way I am looking at it.

All the Best,