Only Age matters...

…is a bit of hyperbole but has a lot of truth to it. For those interested in macro-economic trends there is one graph that one should know. From the Bank of Finland:

https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/charts/chart/demographics-expl…

Solid lines show that since 1995, the US has had much faster GDP growth than Europe or Japan, with Japan at the bottom. But when normalized for the relative size of the workforce (dashed lines), all three economies are performing equally.

That tells you that despite all those differences in education, tax laws, automation, unions, social safety nets, etc between these regions, the factor that really matters is the relative size of the workforce. Most everything else that gets discussed by political parties and talking heads is trivial in comparison. It is all about the demographics. It is all about the mean age of the population.

That’s why America needs immigration, legal or otherwise. Immigration is our long-term advantage over China and Europe.

Sometimes economics can be really simple.

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That is very faulty. It leaves out the BRIC nations and Germany needs to be separated out as demand side economics.

That’s why America n

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What percentage of IT/ Doctors/Nurses, etc workers are currently flooding the borders?

How many of those do we need? How many of the ones we now allow for “legally”, ie traditionally speaking, are we short?

Is there more “control” , both in numbers and means, that can be tolerated instead of current massive waves, of immigrants?

YR

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What percentage of IT/ Doctors/Nurses, etc workers are currently flooding the borders?

How many of those do we need?


If only IT/ Doctors/Nurses, etc workers were flooding the border, our home-grown ones would be rioting in the street and no one would be skinning our chickens and washing dishes in Chinese restaurants. It is their children who become “IT/ Doctors/Nurses, etc workers” and their grandchildren who become lazy Americans.

Jeff

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What percentage of IT/ Doctors/Nurses, etc workers are currently flooding the borders?

The answer is probably not what you might expect.

About 29 percent of physicians were born in other countries, and almost seven percent were not U.S. citizens, the study found.
Roughly 24 percent of dentists were immigrants to the U.S., and four percent were not citizens.
Among pharmacists, 20 percent were born elsewhere and almost four percent were not citizens.
And 16 percent of registered nurses were immigrants; three percent were not citizens.
Slightly more than 23 percent of home health, psychiatric and nursing aides were born outside the U.S., and almost nine percent were not citizens, the study also found. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-professions-us-non…

Worth repeating, one quarter of the doctors and dentists in the USA are foreign born.

How many of those do we need?

If one believes in the principles of capitalism and the notion that it applies to most forms of human behavior then the supply (legal+illegal immigrants) is indicative of the demand (what we need). In 2021, unemployment rate for the foreign born was 5.6% compare to 5.3% with native workers, which means that that the great majority of foreign born are finding jobs, so little evidence that the supply of immigrants is greater than the demand from the job market.

Is there more “control” , both in numbers and means, that can be tolerated instead of current massive waves, of immigrants?

Why? Poor first generation immigrants do the menial, unskilled labor that Americans don’t want to do, thereby lowering food, housing, restaurant, hotel prices. Someday robots might do this work, but until then America needs this segment of the workforce. Meanwhile, the children of these poor immigrants consistently out-perform the rest of America in school and earn equivalent salaries as long-time Americans.

From the US Census:

Of the second generation, 37.4 percent had a bachelor’s degree or higher and 14.9 percent had a master’s degree or higher. In comparison, 31.4 percent of all subsequent generations had at least a bachelor’s degree and 11.1 percent had a master’s degree or higher...The second generation also had a higher median household income than the first generation at $51,291 compared to $45,475, respectively. For subsequent generations, median household income was $51,853, which is not statistically different from the second-generation’s income. **Median incomes for second-generation individuals in all age groups were equal to or higher than median incomes for other generations.**

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Husband hired Maria from Guatemala to deep clean his apartment monthly. A few years later Don and I got together and started having Maria once a week. We sponsored her for the Reagan amnesty, and she is now a proud citizen of the USA.

She had four kids but no longer had a husband. Oldest kid became a Pediatrician, 2nd became an engineer, third became a schoolteacher specialized in bilingual teaching of immigrant kids, and the fourth is a scriptwriter for a Spanish language television network based in Los Angeles.

They tried to get their mother to stop working. “Mom, you took care of us now let us take care of you. Retire!” She adamantly refused, but cut back. She is now in her late 60’s and has just three customers – my dead Mom’s condo still inhabited by Mom’s best friend, and two famous movie stars who adore her.

Maria is already worried that the grandchildren are not learning about “real life”.

david fb

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That is very faulty. It leaves out the BRIC nations and Germany needs to be separated out as demand side economics.

Why? The demographic argument is independent of economic system. It simply assumes that there is a certain age group that is most productive (typically 25-65) and when that group grows smaller relative to the other less productive age groups, productivity will decline. This blog presents a good summary: https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2022/08/09/aging-popula…

It shows a pretty remarkable correlation between the US labor force and GDP growth that is suggestive. It also argues that China hit the demographic problem threshold in 2015 and its growth since then is a mirage driven by debt and a growing real estate bubble.

It is ironic that the primary economic advantage the US has over most of its competitors, the influx of labor and talent through immigration, is something that so many Americans want to curtail. The success of the traditional buy and hold strategy of investing for US stocks may depend on our immigration policy going forward.

It is possible that technology in the form of AI may provide a way out of this demographic pit by dramatically increasing productivity independent of workforce size. But then one has to find a way to distribute the wealth.

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Why?

The national monetary and fiscal policies allow or disallow optimizing the economies.

Those who were using supply side economics were not optimizing their economies. They sucked. No other way of saying it. Germany and central Europe were optimizing their economies. Do not kid yourself about their economies, the life style was far better than for the American middle class.

That includes doctors where in Ireland a medical school education costs 15k EUR in total and the pay is on a par with American doctors. Goes for lawyers and engineers as well.

The data is no honest in the report. It is totally skewed to make an invalid point.

Productivity by age group in a given nation depends on leveraging machine tools. The west was exporting factory production to China mainly. To take national averages for productivity meant seeing limited capacity in the west. As the west brings back factories our productivity levels along with economies of scale will soar.

What does that have to do with age? In the US as we outsourced to China we laid off older workers over time. Another reason why looking at this report we can see fallacies in it that do not apply going forward as more recent factory hires add a growing productivity longer term. In the US major employers in the manufacturing arena hire back older workers previously laid off before hiring younger workers.

Productivity by age group in a given nation depends on leveraging machine tools. The west was exporting factory production to China mainly. To take national averages for productivity meant seeing limited capacity in the west. As the west brings back factories our productivity levels along with economies of scale will soar.

The data doesn’t support that. Productivity per worker in the US has been steadily rising since 1947. No evidence that exporting manufacturing caused a decline in productivity. https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-3/images/what-can-labor-…

That graph tells you that the problem isn’t productivity. The problem is the smaller number of workers relative to the rising number of retired non-workers.

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That includes doctors where in Ireland a medical school education costs 15k EUR in total and the pay is on a par with American doctors.

The data doesn’t support that. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/how-do-us-physician-salarie…

Average US physician salary is over $300,000, significantly higher than doctor salaries in Europe.

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Average US physician salary is over $300,000

Even this can be a bit misleading…specialty vs not. Academia vs private practice etc. My husband has run the gamut of specialty doctoring in the UK and US, academia (majority) vs private hospital group and, there’s no financial comparison. Especially since European medical education doesn’t require either the long stint spent in full time education…either for MD or residency right up to subspecialty training.

Likewise for the lawyers I know.

The problem is the smaller number of workers relative to the rising number of retired non-workers.

The graph is limited in its dimensionality.

Manufacturing leverages labor. The outsourcing as a factor in the averages limits the growth in US productivity.

We also have another problem with policy decisions. Norway has around 72% employment rates. With demand side economics she optimizes her economy. That is not a command economy. That is an intelligent society. Supply side economics in the US is an abdication of doing anything to optimize the US economy and our employment rate of the entire population has shrunk and shrunk. It is not just outsourcing to China. Europeans also outsource to China.

The chart is actually an argument for demand side economics to stop our failed supply side policies.

I get the chart does not say that. The chart does not talk.

Leap:"Norway has around 72% employment rates. With demand side economics she optimizes her economy. That is not a command economy. That is an intelligent society. Supply side economics in the US is an abdication of doing anything to optimize the US economy and our employment rate of the entire population has shrunk and shrunk. "

Could it be that in Norway, no one retires early? Work till ‘regular retirement age’ and then get a pension? Only get a pension at full retirement age. Little private savings.

Here, you can retire early…not have to work. Others take years off.

Now, with a couple years of helicopter money coming in, many others realized they could leave the rat race and kick back, maybe get a part time job and enjoy life?

Meanwhile, 2 million a year flood the borders adding to the population.

Yes, capitalism optimizes things. You don’t make a profit, your company goes downhill, lays folks off. If sales slow, you trim your workforce. Meanwhile others are hiring - new companies, expanding companies and industries and NEW industries.

Demand side economies mis-allocates money. Like the Soviet Union where they told shoe companies to make XX shoes, what sizes…when they ran out of supplies, they made left shoes only to meet the quota.

t.

Demand side economies mis-allocates money. Like the Soviet Union where they told shoe companies to make XX shoes, what sizes…when they ran out of supplies, they made left shoes only to meet the quota.

t,

Please read a public finance book. What you are saying has nothing to do with demand side economics. We keep getting back to you equating western Europe with Russia, NK and VZ. You are not dealing with the topic at all.

I get you have no knowledge on the topic, please study the topic.

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I lived in Norway for a few years. The main forms of savings among people I knew there, were property, cash. There isn’t usually much need for a private pension because company-paid pensions & state pension are usually extremely generous and well funded (and in the case of government employees, backed by the national oil wealth fund). Where I worked about 22% of salary was added on as the pension contribution, and it was defined benefit so the risk lay with the employer/fund.

Workers have a lot of rights, so working till retirement isn’t quite as bad as it might seem, in fact it’s quite pleasant.

Where I worked there were MANY older employees - maybe 60-70% of the organisation - and it was almost a social club as much as anything else. Opposite my office I had a gym, a few doors down, the nap room / massage room (massage chair & regular visiting masseur), the other direction, a break room with plants and a good view and free coffee etc. It wasn’t unusual to walk by people’s offices in the afternoon to notice them just reading the newspaper, since taking a little break every now and then is quite sensible and healthy. As is visiting your colleagues for a chat. A subsidised canteen with a full-time cook and a wide range of healthy fresh food, meetings held at spas and ski lodges, support for conference travel, training etc. This wasn’t anything special, just a regular government job. We were paid to exercise - you could take 1 hour a week and go running or organise a sports club as part of your salary pay. Automatic flexitime, change to 60-80% part-time work and back again, work from home if you like (pre-covid), superb maternity/paternity leave, no unpaid overtime, whatever equipment you needed (including for your comfort in the office - I had a personal office with standing/sitting desk). Cast iron guarantee that your holidays, evenings, weekends & sick leave would not be interrupted by work related phone calls except in extreme emergency. Feeling stressed? Get a doctor’s note and take a month or two off work till you feel better. Disabled unexpectedly? Don’t worry, we’ll find a way for you to contribute.

Why retire when you can get paid incredibly well, some of the best wages in Europe, to hang out with your old buddies in highly paid jobs-for-life, and take naps, coffee, cake and massages - or just stay at home and work for a few hours then go out skiing or cycling?

Working till later in life simply isn’t that awful in Norway. And if someone WAS foolish enough to retire, well, I guess we’ll take a couple of hours at lunch with a galaxy sized fancy marzipan cake to celebrate that. Which was almost once every 2 weeks when I was there.

In a Norwegian workplace you can expect to be treated with at least the minimum level of respect any human being deserves, which is not the case in most other countries I’ve worked in. Managers operate by consent. If your manager comes to you with a stupid request, you hardly even need to say no, your tone of voice or raised eyebrows will probably have them backtracking quickly. Things like people showing up for work drunk? Bullying, violence? Heck no. Sexism, ageism? Absolutely no way! I worked in an IT department and half the staff were women and most of the staff were over 40. Strong unions. Mandatory equality of wages between the sexes, with rules you could invoke to automatically change your salary if you noticed any error.

Perhaps in the oil fields though, you might see sexism or bullying? I don’t know. I would be surprised even there.

Alcohol is only available from the government-run monopoly shops and the price is extremely high, so people are generally serious, sober and well educated. Oslo & Bergen have a drugs problem though among younger people.

At the time I was there, saving in stocks didn’t make much sense to locals because a) they were seen as risky b) they are heavily taxed both CGT & dividends c) there were no tax-free stock investment accounts (there is now; it’s a deferred-till-the-end account) d) immature tech & market connections at local banks for doing trading e) there’s also a wealth tax f) and the Norwegian stockmarket is pretty much Equinor plus a smattering of small companies. So if someone wants to ‘do stocks’, they either buy a fund or they buy Equinor / Norwegian index.

Frankly, the local stockmarket listings were overpriced, full of loss making companies, and not very impressive, with the exception of Equinor and (at the time) Marine Harvest, a salmon farming company. The only person I knew with a managed fund was a Dutchman.

In the last ten years the housing bubble has gradually drawn in everyone’s money - you ‘can’t lose’ with property in a bubble after all, and the tax system gives incredible advantages to investment in housing.

Adults under age 40 of course have no opportunity to save in stocks anyway, because 100% of their money is going towards tax, student loans & their vastly, ridiculously overpriced first tiny property & costs of having a family. And lately energy costs, which Norwegians are universally FURIOUS about at the moment. I had the strong feeling everyone else was spending 90-100% of incoming pay, secure in the knowledge the next paycheque would always be arriving and retirement was already being taken care of.

Talking to former-students there, who are now in their 30s, it seems that stocks and ETFS have become more popular lately because of the media coverage of meme investing and because of the new tax-deferred stock accounts.

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If anyone is curious to see the world from the perspective of a Norwegian investor, and I suppose we’re talking pretty middle-class by Norwegian standards, check out ‘dinepenger’ magazine (‘your money’).

The link below auto-translates into English. This is the closest thing to “TMF Norway”.

Note current articles are often things like ‘are you considering a fixed price contract for your electricity fees?’. The current site has a LOT more articles on stock funds than when I was living there.

A recent ‘major’ economic issue was the level of fees charged for pay-as-you-use public roads, toll roads, which some considered excessive. A major political party formed around this single issue, and destabilised the government.

“Norway’s politicians suffered a major shock in May when polls had the anti-toll party on 25.4% of the vote in the city of Bergen and 6% nationally, making it the fifth-largest party”

"A sharp increase in motorway toll and congestion charges in recent years has helped fuel a political movement that is proving a threat to mainstream parties in a number of major cities.

“A new anti-tolls party, People’s Action – No to More Road Tolls (FNB), is forecast to make major gains at the expense of the populist Progress party, one of the governing parties in the national coalition, but also Labour and the right.”"

This is the Norwegian form of ‘high stress level politics’.

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